Week 11 Props So Good, It’s Like Stealing Money #NFL
As fantasy players, we have a distinct advantage when it comes to prop bets. Whether it is our deep understanding of the player pool or knowing which matchups are most favorable to each position; the research we pour into setting our weekly lineup and building teams in DFS translates beautifully to identifying profitable plays in the prop market. I typically look to DK Sportsbook and BetMGM when doing my prop research but, as a reminder, it is always to your benefit to shop around for your prop bets. What looks like a minor difference in the line or in the odds, applied throughout a season, can swing your overall profitability significantly. This week I am in LOVE with the running back position, both based on favorable matchups and as a counterbalance to game spreads and over/under’s where I’m overweight.
James Robinson: OVER 16.5 Carries (-112)
This might be one of my favorite plays of the week. James Robinson is averaging about 23 carries per game in his last 3 outings; including games where they were down big, as they’re expected to be against Pittsburg. The icing on this cake is that Chris Thompson was quietly placed on IR this week, leaving JRob with the backfield workload all to himself. Robinson was on the field for 83% of snaps and handled 100% of carries after Thompson exited the GB game with an injury.
Kareem Hunt: OVER 79.5 Total Yards (+110)
I know, I know. You’re nervous about playing Hunt now that Chubb is back in the mix. Or maybe it’s the tough matchup against a tough Eagles Run D. Fair points all. These factors are what have this line at a juicy +110. Oddly enough, Kareem Hunt performs BETTER in games where Chubb is active, averaging just over 100 yards from scrimmage when both RB’s are available. The matchup this week is tough, but 3 of those 4 games mentioned above were also against top 3rd defensive units against the run and you simply cannot deny how big a role the running backs play in this Cleveland offense.
Melvin Gordon: OVER 11.5 Carries (-118)
Since returning from injury Melvin Gordon is right at this mark, averaging just about 11 carries per game. Flash has two things working in his favor this week; a Dolphins team that has quickly become one of the biggest run funnels in the league and a QB situation that will feature either an ailing Drew Lock or a less-than-impressive Brett Rypien. Either way, expect the Broncos to lean heavily on the run this week and Gordon to blow past the 11.5 mark.
Antonio Gibson: OVER 2.5 Receptions (-110)
The arithmetic on this one is pretty straight forward. Alex Smith Checkdown Charlie is the starting QB for the Washington Football Team and since taking the helm, he leads the league in targets to the running back position. Yes, JD McKissick is seeing the majority of those looks but I expect Gibson (who was getting some favorable McCaffery comps heading into the season) to also rise with this high tide.
Nick Chubb: UNDER 5.5 Receiving Yards (-106)
Just like in the Browns backfield, both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt have a featured role in this article. I don’t love going under on such a low receiving line in general, however, these are the soft spots on the board that you must exploit to stay profitable. Nick Chubb is averaging less than 1 target per game and Cleveland has drawn a clear line as to who’s their receiving back, and it ain’t Chubby.
Matt Ryan: OVER 5.5 Rushing Yards (-105)
When you think of Matty Ice the words mobility, rushing threat, and elusive come to mind, right?? Well, maybe they should. Despite his statue-like persona, Ryan gets about 3 carries per game and is averaging close to 9 yards on the ground (when you remove kneel-downs). It feels a bit odd, but I’m in on Matt Ryan doing just enough damage with his feet.
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