Prop Notch – Week 14
Last week was another one in the plus column where we put forth a 7-3 effort. When you account for 3 of those wins carrying plus odds, we finished WAY ahead in week 13 and carry a stout 14-8 record on the year. Speaking of plus odds… SHOP AROUND FOR YOUR PROP BETS. All three of those plays were posted at even money or worse on the majority of the books out there and 2 of my wins last week would have been losses were it not for the lower line I found while shopping around. Yes, the research we do as fantasy players puts us in a strong position in the prop market, but the edge we gain by looking for softer lines and favorable odds is ultimately what allows us to consistently profit with player props.
Dalvin Cook: UNDER 23.5 Rushing Attempts (-115)
Dal Cook is absolutely one of the rare workhorse backs in today’s NFL, so it’s completely fair to look at this line with a bit of uncertainty. It does fall near his season average of 22.8 carries per game and Alexander Maddison’s absence led to a 30-tote outing just a week ago. Fair points all. Week 14, however, is a new day and a matchup against one of the biggest pass funnels in the league in the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay is the CLEAR leader in defending the run, allowing just 53.8 rushing yards on 17.5 per game, which leaves opponents shifting their gameplans to emphasize the pass. I expect Tom Brady will quickly take advantage of Minnesota’s joke of a defensive backfield and for the Vikings to have to throw to keep pace in what projects as one of the higher-score games on the slate (O/U 53).
David Montgomery: OVER 63.5 Rushing Yards (-111)
5.2 yards per carry and 185.7 yards per game to the running back position. That is what the Houston Texans are giving up on the season, making them far and away the most favorable matchup against the position. Enter David Montgomery who is on an absolute HEATER. Monty has broken 70 rushing yards in 3 of his last 4 and accounts for more than 70% of the Bears’ opportunities out of the backfield on the season. The basic arithmetic of what the Texans are allowing and Monty’s 16 carries per game average puts his rushing projection north of 80 and in a game that is forecasted to be very close throughout (1.5pt spread); this is one of my absolute favorite plays this week.
Zach Ertz – OVER 2.5 Reception (+105)
I don’t know if I can recall any point in his career where I’ve seen a receptions line this low for Zach Ertz. He’s certainly seen some of his opportunity shift over to Dallas Goedert, but this is a bridge too far. Ertz is averaging 7 targets per game on the season and looked to immediately connect with Rookie Jalen Hurts, who looked his way 3 times in his short stint replacing Wentz last week. The Saints do pose a serious challenge to any offense, but they have shown to be slightly more favorable against the Tight End position and I expect Ertz to be the safety valve for his rookie QB who stands to be under significant pressure this week.
Kareem Hunt – OVER 2.5 Receptions (+135) & OVER 15.5 Receiving Yards (EVEN)
Why do you keep coming back to this article? Because we play the hits, that’s why!! Another week, another lock-button Kareem Hunt bet. Clearly, people are giving the Ravens defense more credit than their due because these odds are a joke. Hunt’s role in this offense is well established and in a game that the Browns are very unlikely to hold a big lead, I expect Kareem to blow past both of these totals early.
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Jonathan Taylor – OVER 15.5 Receiving Yards (-105)
Lather. Rinse. Repeat. This is now my 3rd consecutive week with this bet featured in the article and, despite him crushing the over, the line essentially hasn’t moved. Jonathan Taylor’s role as a receiver out of the backfield is well-established throughout the year and over his last 3 games, he’s averaging about 24 yards as a receiver. This week he walks into a matchup against a Las Vegas Raiders team that has surrendered 43.4 receiving yards per game to the running back and finds solidified himself as the workhorse back in the Colts’ offense.
Robbie Anderson – OVER 6.5 Receptions (EVEN)
This looks to be one of those lovely spots in the market where the bookmakers are just asleep at the wheel. Robbie Anderson is averaging 6.2 receptions and 8.7 targets per game on the season, a season that has had D.J. Moore running opposite him in the offense. This week, Moore has been ruled out and placed on the COVID list, yet Anderson’s line hasn’t adjusted at all. That, coupled with even money, makes this play an absolute lock for me in a week where Carolina’s offense is missing a number of key pieces.
Giovani Bernard: OVER 17.5 Receiving Yards (-105)
Much to the dismay of Joe Mixon owners; week 14 is another week where Gio Bernard is the lead back in the Cincinnati backfield and he walks into a juicy matchup against the Cowboys that has been abused by the running back position this year. Granted, Dallas has been decent defending pass-catchers out of the backfield, but they’re still allowing about 20 yards receiving/game to running backs and much of their efficiency against pass-catching backs is influenced by game scripts that don’t call for throwing to the running back. Gio is averaging 3.3 receptions per game since Mixon went down with an injury and this game lines up as one that should remain competitive, if not finding the Cowboys with a lead.
Justin Herbert – OVER 11.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
This one makes me a bit nervous. Hammering the over on Herbert rushing yards was the story of my early-season success. Then, as we’ve seen with Samson, Herbert cut his hair and lost his (rushing) strength. Given that he has shown us his ability to scramble and gain yards on the ground and that he’s lining up against a Falcons defense allowing the 3rd most rushing yards to the QB – I’m willing to roll the dice here.
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