Quentin Johnston: Boom, Bust, and “I’m Out At Cost”

Pros

In a wide receiver class full of mostly smaller options, four-star Quentin Johnston’s alpha size stands out. When that is paired with his athleticism, Johnston gets labeled a high-ceiling “unicorn” receiver prospect. Unfortunately, the way I see him, there is not much more about him I like.

Johnston’s size and athleticism have allowed him to flash some things we want to see in high-end wide receiver prospects and be a consistent YAC producer (17.8 ypc 2022; 8.3 career yac/rec career and 2.71 career yprr [PFF]). He also generally tracks the ball well and can get open in zone coverage.

While he has done so inconsistently at best, Johnston has shown evidence of good routes and hands technique.

From an analytics perspective, there is a lot to like about Johnston. He checks the alpha boxes for height and weight and is an early declare with an early breakout age (18). Even a conservative input of 4.50 for Johnston’s pro day 40 time checks our box for sub-4.60 and yields height-adjusted and weight-adjusted speed scores above 100. Johnston also checks our boxes for 1. dominator rating above 20% in year 1 or 2; 2. dominator rating of 30+% at least once; 3. career RYPTPA above 2.00; and 4. best season EPA/play above 1.00. (numbers per Jay Stein)

Less threshold-based analytical models, like those used by John Bauer and JJ Zachariason also generally like Johnston, especially the latter.

Cons

Johnson struggles to display solid route running and hands technique consistently. The latter appears to be the biggest problem he needs to solve. Johnston regularly uses improper hand positioning, clapping techniques, drops, and body catching. He must improve in this area to reach even his median outcome, let alone his ceiling.

Johnston also gets out-physicaled by defensive backs way too often, whether during release, in the route, or at the catch point. This leaves some, including me, questioning his effort (I call it his compete) and his drive. In this video, with Brandon Lejeune and Jason DiRienzo, the latter calls it his “want motor.” You can watch Brandon dig deeper in this film review. We want our alpha WR1s to be more tenacious than Johnston is at present.

This lack of physicality or perhaps even effort is also evident in Johnston’s blocking on run plays.

From an analytics perspective, there are a few flaws in Johnston’s profile. I think the main knock would be that his production metrics in year three disappointed, especially when adjusted for age/experience. Additionally, while he did clear the 2.00 career RYPTPA, he did so barely (2.04) and was well below the “elite” or “excellent” threshold of 2.50. (numbers per Jay Stein).

Summary

In Johnston’s defense, he has a basketball and track background, and 2022 was only his fifth year playing organized football. There is the “room to grow” argument in his favor for sure.

But there are undoubtedly underwhelming aspects of Johnston’s profile, especially what he’s put on film. Also, we don’t know what Johnston’s level of commitment to improvement will be. He’ll need to hire a private coach and spend extra time at the JUGS machine.

And while I don’t want to knock a 6’3″ 208 lbs. wide receiver with a 4.5 40-yard dash time as not having a size/athleticism combo, when that combo was your selling point, and you come in shorter, lighter, and slower than expected, that’s not great, Bob.

Johnston remains an expected first-round pick in many circles and on NFL Mock Draft Database\, though he has slipped into the later part of the round. He is still going in the late first round in superflex rookie mock drafts, so he is an “out at cost” guy for me this year. If he somehow slips into the early or preferably mid-2nd, I’d be more in on him.

For now, he is a boom/bust prospect with a risk/reward and floor/ceiling combo that dictates I might prefer more value options at “big” wide receiver like Cedric Tillman and Xavier Hutchinson or even semi-sleeper Jonathan Mingo.

Given team needs and expected draft capital, some landing spots that make sense for Johnston are: the Titans (11th overall), Texans (12th and 33rd), Patriots (14th), Green Bay (15th), Chargers (21st), Ravens (22nd), Vikings (23rd), Jaguars (24th), Giants (25th), Chiefs (31st), and Panthers (39th).

If the Jaguars pick him, or if he goes to any of the teams from 27th to 31st (Bills, Bengals, Saints, Eagles, and Chiefs), an “a lot of mouths to feed” narrative could make him slide a bit in rookie drafts and present us with good value.

Ideal Role: X/split end or flanker, WR1 upside for NFL and fantasy

2023 Dynasty Rookie Draft Projection: late 1st

Player Comp: Martavis Bryant, Jordy Nelson, Kevin White, Alec Pierce