WR Roman Wilson: Fast, Tough, and a QB’s Best Friend

WR Roman Wilson – Michigan
5’10” | 186 lbs.
Career Stats: 107 rec, 1,707 yds, 20 TD

Pros

A former 4-star recruit, Roman Wilson has several traits that will help him succeed in the NFL, like his strength and blocking, speed and quickness, and solid hands. Fortunately for Wilson, he was able to showcase these traits well during Senior Bowl week, and that improved his draft stock. Otherwise, he might just be another Michigan wide receiver for whom we have questions because of their run-heavy, not-dynamic offense, though he did have a nice jump in production in 2023 (789 yards and 12 touchdowns).

Wilson was used as a vertical field-stretcher more than his frame would indicate, took snaps in the backfield, and was a go-to option for JJ McCarthy. He flashed the ability to win at all three levels of the field, and his physicality and hands will help him become a red zone option. Wilson certainly has the upside to do well in today’s NFL.

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From an analytics perspective, Wilson won’t pop in a lot of models due to age and overall size and their impact on other metrics like speed score and age-adjusted production. Still, his 26.3 BMI gets him just across a common wide receiver threshold of 26. Some of his year 4 numbers are very solid. That season, his games played-adjusted numbers included a dominator rating of 47% and 2.70 receiving yards per team pass attempt (RYPTPA). That same season, he had 2.68 yards per route run (Y/RR), and his overall PFF receiving grade was 84.5, with solid splits of 75.5 against man coverage and 77.2 versus zone. [numbers per PFF and Campus2Canton]

Cons

The Michigan offense did not provide Wilson with a lot of opportunity to see more complex schemes he will encounter in the NFL, so there will be a learning curve there. His mold would suggest a short-pass-or-manufactured-touch-and-YAC acumen, but Michigan also did not use him that way much, and he is not dynamically agile after the catch. Wilson will likely be limited to slot work in the NFL, so the ways in which he can win and produce become fewer.

Analytically, Wilson will have flaws, like his age (23 in June) and especially his later breakout and non-early declare status. As I mentioned above, while he is for sure fast, his size-adjusted speed scores won’t hit thresholds. Due to the shortened Big 10 season in 2020 and Michigan’s offensive approach in his four years there, Wilson won’t hit most production marks analytic models use, especially when adjusted for age/experience.

Summary

I think about rookie rankings through a PPR lens and bake in the “today’s NFL” factor, so Roman Wilson is currently my WR9, right behind Ladd McConkey and Adonai Mitchell and just ahead of questionable big men like Keon Coleman and Xavier Legette. I seem to be higher than consensus on him, but the NFL Draft buzz is real, and Wilson should find himself selected on Day 2. It’s early, and we have a deep wide receiver class, but some interesting fits include Philadelphia (pick 53), Houston (59), Baltimore (62), Kansas City (64), and of course a return to playing for coach Jim Harbaugh and the Chargers (69). Don’t count out Atlanta (74 and 79) if he slides a little further.

Strengths

• speed and quickness
• strength and blocking
• “my ball” mentality
• hands

Concerns

• age/later breakout
• limited production profile
• elusiveness after catch
• vanilla college scheme

2024 Dynasty Rookie Draft Projection: 2nd/early 3rd (12-team superflex TE premium)

Ideal Role: physical slot WR with flanker potential

Player Comp: Tyler Lockett, Josh Downs, Golden Tate, Charlie Jones

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