Shane Waldron Taking Bear’s Offense to New Heights…Right?
After 10 years Shane Waldron was able to make Geno Smith’s fantasy and RL relevant in three years. Can he do the same for Caleb Williams in their first year together
The Chicago Bears enter the 2024 NFL season with an offensive haul, not only did they acquire quarterback Williams and wide receiver Rome Odunze in the 2024 NFL Draft, but in free agency they managed to get wide receiver Keenan Allen, running back D’Andre Swift and keep D.J. Moore.
Should our fantasy expectations be realistically sky-high?
Shane Waldron
Waldron is coming to Chicago by way of Seattle where he had spent the last three seasons. During Waldron’s three years in Seattle, the Seahawks were:
- Ninth in explosive plays percentage, 14%
- Fifth in explosive run play percentage, 14.5%
- Third in most total big pass plays, 110
- 10th in total touchdowns, 83
During Waldon’s tenure, his offense was based on the Erhardt-Perkins offense, where the defense is shown multiple formations and personnel combinations but the offensive emphasis is on the run game and short passing game.
Bucky Brooks of NFL Network has said this regarding Waldron and the scheme:
“Waldron’s work with Smith was quite impressive. The former second-round pick truly broke out in year 10 while directing Waldron’s run-heavy, play-action system that pushed the ball down the field. Geno completed a league-best 69.8% of his passes for 4,282 yards and 30 touchdowns (11 interceptions) compiling a sparkling 100.9 passer rating in the process. Smith’s sudden efficiency and effectiveness suggest Waldron understands who to maximize the talent at his disposal while masking a quarterback’s flow in the pocket.”
The most common idea when discussing Waldon’s scheme can be stated as ‘simplistically unpredictable’. Waldon will run the same play out of a lot of different concepts. There were, however, consistencies to Waldron’s offenses, in 2023:
- 64.2% time used 11 personnel, 15th in the NFL.
- 22.3% of time used 12 personnel, 10th in the NFL.
- 8.8% time used 13 personnel, second in the NFL.
On first down, Waldon has run 13 personnel the second most in the NFL in both 2022 and 2023.
Waldron ran more than 13 personnel in 2023 after the Seahawks acquired Jaxon Smith-Njigba, meaning that Waldron adapts his schemes to his players and not the other way around.
The Receiving Players
Caleb Williams, Quarterback
| Year | Games | Att/Games | Pass Yards | Pass Att | TD: INT |
| 2023 | 12 | 32.2 | 3,633 | 9.4 | 30:5 |
| 2022 | 14 | 35.7 | 4,537 | 9.1 | 42:5 |
Williams was the number one overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft and will have one of the most complete line-ups of any number one pick. And the Bears are projected to have the third easiest strength of schedule.
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D.J. Moore, Wide Receiver
Moore has had over 1,000 receiving yards in four of the past five seasons, and last season he had a career-high 1,364 receiving yards with 539 yards after catch, the eighth-best amongst wide receivers.
Moore’s superlatives last season include:
- Sixth in total fantasy points, 286.50
- Ninth in fantasy points per game, 16.9
- Ninth in Yards per Target, 10.0
- 10th in total touchdowns, 10
Stats courtesy of playerprofiler.com
Keenan Allen, Wide Receiver
Allen only played in 13 games last season, and he still finished with 1,243 yards and seven touchdowns on 108 receptions, all while running the fourth-most routes against man coverage (167) with the third-most target rate versus man coverage (32.3%).
The Bears acquired Allen in a trade and his talents go well with Moore, along with his experience with rookie quarterbacks. Allen was Justin Herbert’s quarterback when Herbert took over for injured Tyrod Taylor, Herbert went on to pass for 4,336 and 31 touchdowns, Allen was on the receiving end of 147 targets, 100 receptions, and 992 yards that season.
Allen’s target share with Herbert in 2020 was 27.1% last season it was 32.0%, proving to not only be Herbert’s favorite target but also his most reliable one. The Bears are hoping the same happens with an Allen-Williams connection.
Rome Odunze, Wide Receiver
The Bears doubled down and drafted Washington wide receiver Odunze ninth overall in the 2024 NFL Draft. Odunze is a legitimate deep-threat option as he led the nation last year with 21 receptions on passes of 20 or more yards.
According to NFL’s Draft Analysis Lance Zierlein:
“Odunze seems to relish jump balls and contested catches. He shines in all aspects of ball skills, including positioning, body control, hand strength, timing, and mid-air adjustments. He’s a high-volume target on the next level that play-callers can utilize to mismatch finesse cornerbacks.”
Cole Kmet, Tight End
Kmet has produced in the passing game even when the Bears’ passing situation was inept. Last season the Bears ranked 27th in passing offense, yet Kmet had a career-high 73 receptions, 719 yards, and six receiving touchdowns.
Kmet and the Bears
| Year | Pass Att/G: Rank | Kmet’s Targets | Kmet’s Receptions | Kmet’s Yards |
| 2023 | 30.2: 28th | 91 | 73 | 719 |
| 2022 | 22.2: 32nd | 69 | 50 | 544 |
| 2021 | 31.9: 23rd | 93 | 60 | 612 |
The Bears also added tight end Gerald Everett who has a history with Waldron from the Los Angeles Rams to the Seattle Seahawks and now in Chicago.
The Offense is Stacked
In addition to the receiving additions, the Bears added running back D’Andre Swift in free agency to go along with Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson.
Swift had career highs last season on a Philadelphia Eagles team that fell below expectations including losing six of the final seven games and getting drummed by Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC Wild Card game by a score of 32-9.
Herbert finished last season with 611 rushing yards and two touchdowns, while rookie Johnson had 352 yards and two touchdowns.
Waldron has an offense that on paper is stacked combined with a strength of schedule that appears to be the third easiest in the league, with their opponents’ 2023-win percentage at .467.
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