Swing for the Fences: DFS Home Run Predictions (June 20)

Here are some home run prediction for Monday night’s nine-game slate of MLB action, including someone who could take Clayton Kershaw deep tonight.

Here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

C – Yan Gomes (CLE) – Gomes has six homers and a .192 ISO against lefties this season and will face Rays lefty Drew Smyly who has given up 12 long balls to righties (1.82 HR/9) this season. Gomes has also hit two homers in 11 career at-bats against Smyly.

1B – Logan Morrison (TB) – Morrison has increased his HR/FB rate this season up to 18.6% and has hit seven of his eight homers against righties. He will face home run prone righty Josh Tomlin tonight who has allowed a 1.71 HR/9 this season and 1.54 HR/9 in his career.

2B – Jonathan Schoop (BAL) – Schoop is well on his way to a career-high in homers with 12 long balls already this season. While Schoop hits righties better than lefties he still has a solid .189 ISO against lefties this season and faces Rangers lefty Derek Holland who struggles against righties allowing 1.49 HR/9 this season.

SS – Trevor Story (COL) – Story has actually hit more homers on the road than he has at Coors Field this season and has a .292 ISO against righties. Story travels to Miami to face off against Marlins’ righty Paul Clemens who has allowed 2.08 HR/9 to righties in his brief career.

3B – Kyle Seager (SEA) – Seager has hit righties much better than lefties this season with a .405 wOBA and .259 ISO. Tonight Seager will face Tigers righty Mike Pelfrey who has given up 1.26 HR/9 and 14.1% HR/FB rates this season.

OF – Mark Trumbo (BAL) – Trumbo is tied for the league-lead in homer this season with 20 homers including seven against lefties contributing to a .361 ISO against southpaws. Trumbo should have a good chance to go deep against lefty Derek Holland in the heat in Texas.

OF – Colby Rasmus (HOU) – After a hot start to the season, Rasmus has cooled off with just two home runs since April 25. Despite his lack of power over the last couple of month, he is in a good spot tonight playing at home against Angels righty Jhoulys Chacin who has homered off once in four career at-bats and will be pitching on the road where he has allowed all seven of his homers this season.

OF – Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) – Stanton is starting to heat up with six hits over his last three games with only two strikeouts. Tonight he will face the Rockies lefty Jorge de la Rosa who has allowed 1.29 HR/9 on the road to righties in his career.

Longshot – Jayson Werth (WAS) – Werth faces Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw tonight, so why am I recommending him. Stay with me here, Werth has crushed righties this season with .300 ISO and five homers in just 60 at-bats. And while Kershaw is no ordinary lefty, Werth has had some success against him with a .310 average and two homers in 29 at-bats in his career. It’s a longshot but he could be “Werth” a flier in a GPP tonight.

 

Sunday’s Results

Pos	Name	HR	FD Pts
C	Evan Gattis	1	31.4
1B	Paul Goldschmidt	0	12.4
2B	Rougned Odor	0	12.2
SS	Carlos Correa	0	6.0
3B	Pedro Alvarez	0	6.2
OF	Shin-Soo Choo	0	3.0
OF	Matt Holliday	1	22.2
OF	George Springer	0	9.2
Longshot	David Peralta		DNP

 

Season Results

Pos	Picks	HR	HR Rate	Avg FD Pts
C	11	4	36.4%	12.79
1B	9	1	11.1%	6.92
2B	10	0	0.0%	11.07
SS	10	1	10.0%	10.29
3B	10	2	20.0%	13.12
OF	31	10	32.3%	16.48
Longshot	5	2	40.0%	13.16
Total	86	20	23.3%	13.08

 

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