Swing for the Fences: DFS Home Run Predictions (June 22)

Another three-homer day on Monday, which is becoming the norm but still looking for a big four or five home run day and still searching for the elusive multiple homer game from a player. It will come and maybe today is the day as I review my home run predictions for the eight-game night slate.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

C – Victor Martinez (DET) – Martinez has regained his home run swing this season already topping last season’s home run total thanks to a 15.4% HR/FB rate which is similar to 2014 when he hit 32 long balls. Tonight he will face Hisashi Iwakuma who he has gone 6-for-12 with two homers against and has given up 1.39 HR/9 this season.

1B – Chris Davis (BAL) – Davis hasn’t homered in his last eight games but has three doubles over his last three games and will get to face Padres righty Erik Johnson who has given up at least two homers in all four of his starts this season.

2B – Ian Kinsler (DET) – Kinsler is recommended partially due to BvP tonight, as he has crushed Iwakuma going 11-for-29 with two doubles and three homers in his career. Meanwhile, Iwakuma has allowed more homers to righties in his career giving up 1.64 HR/9 this season and 1.29 HR/9 in his career.

SS – Eduardo Nunez (MIN) – Nunez has crushed lefties this season with a .333 ISO and will face southpaw Adam Morgan who has allowed 10 homers to righties this season for a 2.14 HR/9 rate.

3B – Eugenio Saurez (CIN) – Picking Suarez may seem a little bit like a longshot tonight facing Rangers ace Cole Hamels but Suarez has hit lefties very well this season with five homers in just 63 at-bats while Hamels has struggled with the long ball allowing 1.51 HR/9 to righties.

OF – Mitch Moreland (TEX) – Moreland holds a .210 ISO against righties this season and could see the ball fly off his bat tonight in the heat of Texas against Reds righty Dan Straily who has allowed 1.47 HR/9 to lefties on the road this season.

OF – Adam Jones (BAL) – Really all of the Orioles bats are in play tonight against Erik Johnson who has allowed 1.99 HR/9 during his career including 1.79 HR/9 to righties. Meanwhile, Jones has reverse platoon splits with a higher ISO (.196) in his career against righties.

OF – Robbie Grossman (MIN) – Grossman has been a pleasant surprise for the Twins with five homers in his first 100 at-bats this season. He will look to add to his early season power with a good matchup against home run prone lefty Adam Morgan who has allowed 10 homers in his last five starts.

Longshot – Prince Fielder (TEX) – Hard to imagine that the former home run king is now a longshot play but that is what this season has come to for Fielder with just five homers on the season. He is cheap on FanDuel tonight at just $2,400 and has a shot a long ball tonight in the heat of Texas against Straily who he homered against last season.

 

Monday, June 20 – Results

Pos	Name	HR	FD Pts
C	Yan Gomes	0	15.4
1B	Logan Morrison	0	0.0
2B	Jonathan Schoop	0	9.2
SS	Trevor Story	1	21.7
3B	Kyle Seager	1	18.7
OF	Mark Trumbo	0	9.0
OF	Colby Rasmus	0	18.9
OF	Giancarlo Stanton	1	21.7
Longshot	Jayson Werth	0	3.0

 

Season Results

Pos	Picks	HR	HR Rate	Avg FD Pts
C	12	4	33.3%	13.01
1B	10	1	10.0%	6.23
2B	11	0	0.0%	10.90
SS	11	2	18.2%	11.33
3B	11	3	27.3%	13.63
OF	34	11	32.4%	16.49
Longshot	6	2	33.3%	11.47
Total	95	23	24.2%	13.07

 

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