Swing for the Fences: DFS Home Run Predictions (May 31)
After each of my last two featured hitters were held out of the lineup after I recommended them. If my cover boy today, Carlos Gonzalez, ends up not starting tonight then I am going start to get a reputation as a jinx just like the Madden cover. Other than David Ortiz not starting last Friday, I had my best day predicting homers with three out of my eight selections going deep including my Longshot play of Franklin Gutierrez. I will look to build on Friday’s success on tonight’s 12-game slate of MLB action.
So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…
C – Jonathan Lucroy (MIL) – Lucroy has had a big month of May with eight home runs. He will look to end the month with a bang against the Cardinals’ Mike Leake who Lucroy is 15-for-32 against in his career and has already allowed nine homers this season.
1B – David Ortiz (1B) – Ortiz has homered in each of his last three games and will have a good chance to make it four in a row tonight when he takes his .413 ISO against righties this season into a matchup against Orioles’ righty Kevin Gausman.
2B – Starlin Castro (NYY) – Castro is on pace for a career-high in home runs this season and has a .185 ISO against lefties this season. Castro faces lefty J.A. Happ who has allowed all seven of his homers to righties this season in Toronto tonight.
SS – Trevor Story (COL) – Playing at Coors Field tonight against the Reds’ Jon Moscot and the terrible Reds bullpen should give Story and the rest of the Rockies a good shot at some homers tonight. Story has actually hit almost twice as many homers on the road than at home this season but look for him to add to his Coors Field total tonight.
3B – Matt Carpenter (STL) – Carpenter is 16-for-35 with four doubles and three homers against Brewers’ starter Wily Peralta in his career and those stats were against a better version of Peralta than we have seen this season.
OF – Carlos Gonzalez (COL) – Gonzalez is heating up with homers in three straight games and has a juicy matchup against Jon Moscot and the Reds bullpen in Coors Field tonight. Could be the first double-dong performance for my Swing for the Fences column.
OF – Khris Davis (OAK) – Davis has put up 11 homers in May and hits righties almost as well as lefties with a .242 career ISO against righties. Look for Davis to have a good chance to take Twins right-hander Tyler Duffey deep tonight.
OF – Lorenzo Cain (KC) – Cain has been making a lot of hard contact recently with a 42.9% hard contact rate over the last week and four extra-base hits during that span. Tonight he will face the Rays’ Drew Smyly who has trouble giving up the long ball allowing 1.6 HR/9 this season.
Longshot – Kirk Nieuwenhuis (MIL) – Nieuwenhuis has hit 18 of his 19 career home runs against righties while he faces Mike Leake tonight who has given up 2.25 HR/9 to lefties so far this season and will play in hitter-friendly Miller Park.
Friday’s Results
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Date | Pos | Name | HR | FD Pts |
27-May | C | Welington Castillo | 0 | 0.0 |
27-May | 1B | David Ortiz | DNP | |
27-May | 2B | Ian Kinsler | 0 | 21.2 |
27-May | SS | Trevor Story | 0 | 16.0 |
27-May | 3B | Adrian Beltre | 1 | 21.7 |
27-May | OF | Mike Trout | 0 | 25.7 |
27-May | OF | Andrew McCutchen | 1 | 28.4 |
27-May | OF | Jay Bruce | 0 | 3.2 |
27-May | Longshot | Franklin Gutierrez | 1 | 18.7 |
Season Results
Pos | Picks | HR | HR Rate | FD Pts |
C | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
1B | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 3.00 |
2B | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 10.07 |
SS | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 20.35 |
3B | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 9.40 |
OF | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 15.70 |
Longshot | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 12.45 |
Total | 21 | 4 | 19.0% | 11.42 |
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