Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (4/11)
After putting up an “O-fer” last Tuesday, I was able to bounce back strong on Friday with five home runs from my list of long ball hitters. I will plan to write this article every Tuesday and Friday during the season and sneak in a few others when time permits.
Tuesday night’s 10-game slate could feature every hitter from the Colorado Rockies as they play in Coors Field against Jered Weaver but that wouldn’t be very fun so I will only include two Rockies’ bats in my list of recommendations.
Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.
So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…
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C – Welington Castillo (BAL) (FanDuel: $2,800 / DraftKings: $3,800) – Castillo will face Drew Pomeranz who struggled after coming to Boston last season and with the wind blowing out to the monster in left field, Castillo could pop one over.
1B – Kendrys Morales (TOR) (FanDuel: $3,000 / DraftKings: $3,700) – If you are looking to get away from Coors Field than Toronto is the next best option with the Jays facing Wily Peralta who gave up 1.38 HR/9 to righties last season.
2B – Ryan Schimpf (SD) (FanDuel: $3,500 / DraftKings: $4,800) – Schimpf hit 20 homers last season including 17 off righties. He will face the Rockies’ rookie righty Antonio Senzatela making his Coors Field debut.
SS – Trevor Story (COL) (FanDuel: $4,100 / DraftKings: $4,900) –Story had a 47.5% fly ball rate last season and should be able to lift one out of the park against fly ball pitcher Jered Weaver.
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3B – Josh Donaldson (TOR) (FanDuel: $3,800 / DraftKings: $4,900) – Donaldson posted a .341 ISO at home versus righties last season and will face righty Wily Peralta who gave up 1.38 HR/9 to righties last season.
OF – Carlos Gonzalez (COL) (FanDuel: $4,000 / DraftKings: $5,000) – Weaver gives up a lot of fly balls and in Coors that is a bad thing, look for Gonzalez and his .260 ISO at home versus righties last season take advantage.
OF – Yoenis Cespedes (NYM) (FanDuel: $ 3,800/ DraftKings: $4,500) – Cespedes is off to a slow start (.154 average and zero HR) but will face Clay Buchholz who gave up 1.79 HR/9 to righties last season.
OF – Nelson Cruz (SEA) (FanDuel: $3,600 / DraftKings: $4,300) – Cruz is still looking for his first HR of the season but he has been making hard contact lately so he could go yard against Joe Musgrove who has allowed 1.42 HR/9 to righties so far in his brief career.
Longshot – Justin Smoak (TOR) (FanDuel: $2,300 / DraftKings: $3,000) – Smoak has a career .179 ISO against righties and is a cheap way to get exposure to the Blue Jays lineup.
Friday, April 7 – Results
| Date | Pos | Name | HR | FD Pts |
| 7-Apr | C | Stephen Vogt | 0 | 6.2 |
| 7-Apr | 1B | Carlos Santana | 0 | 10.0 |
| 7-Apr | 2B | Rougned Odor | 1 | 28.2 |
| 7-Apr | SS | Francisco Lindor | 1 | 18.7 |
| 7-Apr | 3B | Manny Machado | 1 | 25.7 |
| 7-Apr | OF | Mark Trumbo | 0 | 0.0 |
| 7-Apr | OF | Giancarlo Stanton | 0 | 9.2 |
| 7-Apr | OF | Khris Davis | 1 | 18.7 |
| 7-Apr | Longshot | Matt Joyce | 1 | 28.7 |
Season Results
| Pos | Picks | HR | HR Rate | Avg FD Pts |
| C | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 3.10 |
| 1B | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 11.25 |
| 2B | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 18.60 |
| SS | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 21.55 |
| 3B | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 20.70 |
| OF | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 7.27 |
| Longshot | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 18.85 |
| Total | 18 | 5 | 27.8% | 12.87 |
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