Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (4/18)
My recommendations fared okay last Friday with a couple long balls and some solid scores for a couple of players that didn’t homer. Tuesday features a full 15-game slate of MLB action so there should be plenty of homers to find, especially in Cincy where the Orioles power bats are in play against the ageless Bronson Arroyo.
Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.
So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…
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C – Evan Gattis (HOU) (FanDuel: $2,900 / DraftKings: $3,800) – Gattis is without a home run this season but that could change on Tuesday when he faces Ricky Nolasco who has already given up five homers through his first three starts.
1B – Chris Davis (BAL) (FanDuel: $3,300 / DraftKings: $4,700) – Davis came through for me on Friday and I’ll go back to him again tonight, especially with that price on FanDuel, against Bronson Arroyo who has allowed two homers in each of his first two starts.
2B – Ryan Schimpf (SD) (FanDuel: $3,100 / DraftKings: $3,600) – Schimpf has shown a lot of power in his brief big league career including a .306 ISO versus righties. He will face Diamondbacks’ righty Shelby Miller who gave up 1.26 HR/9 to lefties on the road last season.
SS – Asdrubal Cabrera (NYM) (FanDuel: $3,500 / DraftKings: $3,700) – Cabrera hit 20 of his 23 homers versus righties last season and will face Phillies’ righty Zach Eflin who gave up 2.76 HR/9 to lefties in 11 starts last season.
3B – Manny Machado (BAL) (FanDuel: $3,900 / DraftKings: $4,900) – Machado is the next Orioles’ hitter on the list to pick on Arroyo. He has shown more power versus right-handed pitchers with a .252 ISO last season.
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OF – Bryce Harper (WAS) (FanDuel: $4.700 / DraftKings: $5,100) – Harper blasted two homers on Sunday and has a .394 wOBA and .242 ISO versus righties in his career.
OF – Nelson Cruz (SEA) (FanDuel: $3,700 / DraftKings: $4,300) – Cruz versus a lefty, sign me up! He had a .351 ISO versus lefties last season while his opposition tonight Wei-Yin Chen gave up 1.79 HR/9 to righties last season.
OF – Justin Upton (DET) (FanDuel: $3,400 / DraftKings: $3,900) – Upton might be a little bit “off the board” for a home run call tonight but he hits for more power versus righties (.225 ISO last season) and has made hard contact 55.6% of the time over his last four games.
Longshot – Seth Smith (BAL) (FanDuel: $2,600 / DraftKings: $3,700) – Smith is a cheaper option hitting at the top of the Orioles lineup. He has a career .358 wOBA and .202 ISO versus right-handers.
Friday, April 14 – Results
| Date | Pos | Name | HR | FD Pts |
| 14-Apr | C | Yasmani Grandal | 0 | 9.0 |
| 14-Apr | 1B | Chris Davis | 1 | 30.9 |
| 14-Apr | 2B | Brian Dozier | 0 | 18.0 |
| 14-Apr | SS | Zack Cozart | 1 | 25.2 |
| 14-Apr | 3B | Eugenio Suarez | 0 | 6.2 |
| 14-Apr | OF | Ryan Braun | 0 | 21.0 |
| 14-Apr | OF | Carlos Gomez | 0 | 6.0 |
| 14-Apr | OF | Steve Pearce | 0 | 0.0 |
| 14-Apr | Longshot | Brandon Moss | 0 | 6.0 |
Season Results
| Pos | Picks | HR | HR Rate | Avg FD Pts |
| C | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 5.30 |
| 1B | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 16.40 |
| 2B | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 14.55 |
| SS | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 22.77 |
| 3B | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 15.87 |
| OF | 12 | 5 | 41.7% | 13.45 |
| Longshot | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 10.93 |
| Total | 34 | 11 | 32.4% | 13.71 |
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