Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (5/2)
Introduction
My Tuesday night lineup produced three homers and had five hitters score at least 12 FanDuel points. I should have had Matt Adams on the list instead of Logan Morrison as my “longshot” since I did end up with a lot of exposure to Adams in my FanDuel lineups. Today’s article with focus on the eight-game Wednesday night slate, where there are a ton of value at pitcher so feel free to load up on bats.
Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.
So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…
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Lineup
C – Mike Zunino (SEA) (FanDuel: $3,000 / DraftKings: $3,600)
1B – Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) (FanDuel: $4,000 / DraftKings: $4,500) – Goldschmidt has played second fiddle to Pollock over the last two games but I expect him to get into the mix against lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu at home. Goldschmidt has a career .455 wOBA and .299 ISO at home against lefties.
2B – Howie Kendrick (WAS) (FanDuel: $3,100 / DraftKings: $3,300)
SS – Manny Machado (BAL) (FanDuel: $4,800 / DraftKings: $4,900) – Machado has four two-hit games in his last five starts and has clubbed two homers off lefty Andrew Heaney in six career at-bats.
3B – Eugenio Suarez (CIN) (FanDuel: $3,600 / DraftKings: $4,500) – Grabbing a couple of Reds’ right-handed bats with Suarez and Duvall facing lefty Wade Miley who served up 1.67 HR/9 to righties last season and will be making his first start of the season.
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OF – A.J. Pollock (ARI) (FanDuel: $4,200 / DraftKings: $5,000) – Pollock is a house of fire right now with four home runs over his last two games. He’ll get another lefty (Ryu) at home on Wednesday. Pollock has a career .410 wOBA and .291 ISO at home against lefties. Ride the wave!
OF – Nelson Cruz (SEA) (FanDuel: $3,800 / DraftKings: $4,400) – Continuing to ride Cruz who has homered in two of his last three games and will face a lefty, Brett Anderson. Cruz has a career .391 wOBA and .256 ISO against southpaws.
OF – Adam Duvall (CIN) (FanDuel: $2,800 / DraftKings: $3,700)
Longshot – Matt Adams (WAS) (FanDuel: $2,400 / DraftKings: $3,500) – I might be a day late putting Adams on this list but his price is still low and he has another solid matchup against right-hander Ivan Nova who allowed 1.78 HR/9 to lefties last season.
Cheap Pitching options
FanDuel – Sean Newcomb ($7,300), Luis Castillo ($6,700)
DraftKings – James Paxton ($8,000), Zack Godley ($7,600), Sean Newcomb ($7,600), Luis Castillo ($5,300)
Results – Tuesday, May 1
| Pos | Name | HR | FD Pts |
| C | Manny Pina | 0 | 6.2 |
| 1B | Matt Olson | 0 | 15.2 |
| 2B | Matt Carpenter | 1 | 24.7 |
| 3B | Travis Shaw | 1 | 22.2 |
| SS | Carlos Correa | 0 | 3.0 |
| OF | Mike Trout | 0 | 12.0 |
| OF | Nelson Cruz | 1 | 25.7 |
| OF | Kyle Schwarber | 0 | 9.0 |
| Longshot | Logan Morrison | 0 | 3.0 |
Overall Results
| Pos | Picks | HR | HR Rate | Avg FD Pts |
| C | 13 | 3 | 23.1% | 11.36 |
| 1B | 14 | 1 | 7.1% | 7.93 |
| 2B | 13 | 1 | 7.7% | 9.96 |
| SS | 14 | 4 | 28.6% | 14.48 |
| 3B | 14 | 4 | 28.6% | 17.81 |
| OF | 41 | 7 | 17.1% | 11.96 |
| Longshot | 15 | 2 | 13.3% | 10.08 |
| Total | 124 | 22 | 17.7% | 11.95 |
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