Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (5/4)

Introduction

Wednesday’s lineup was a complete disaster outside of my longshot pick Matt Adams. After taking Thursday off to clear my head I’m back at it for the huge 15-game slate on Friday night. We should be able to use some divine power from the force on May the 4th to help levitate some balls over the fence from the hitters on today’s home run list.

Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

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Lineup

C – Salvador Perez (KC) (FanDuel: $3,100 / DraftKings: $3,600) – Perez is 4-for-10 with a double and a homer off Francisco Liriano in his career.

1B – Brandon Belt (SF) (FanDuel: $3,600 / DraftKings: $4,300) – Belt has hit four of his six home runs this season on the road against a righty. He will get a favorable park adjustment playing in Atlanta facing righty Mike Foltynewicz who Belt has hit three homers off in 12 career at-bats.

2B – Brian Dozier (MIN) (FanDuel: $3,300 / DraftKings: $4,600) – Dozier only has three hits in his last 40 at-bats but a matchup with Carson Fulmer who Dozier has hit two long balls in three career at-bats could snap him out of his slump.

SS – Didi Gregorius (NYY) (FanDuel: $4,400 / DraftKings: $5,000) – Gregorius has hit seven of his 10 homers this season when at home facing a righty. Guess what? He is at home facing a righty (Josh Tomlin) and the wind is blowing out at Yankee Stadium.

3B – Josh Donaldson (TOR) (FanDuel: $3,500 / DraftKings: $5,000) – Donaldson sure didn’t have any rust in his return from the DL with a home run in each game of a double dip yesterday.

OF – Aaron Judge (NYY) (FanDuel: $4,600 / DraftKings: $5,600) – Judge has a career .473 wOBA and .420 ISO at home against righties. He’ll face right-hander Josh Tomlin who has allowed a total of six home runs in his last two starts and wind is blowing out in New York, not that Judge needs any help.

OF – Justin Upton (LAA) (FanDuel: $3,700 / DraftKings: $4,300) – Upton has four hits including a double and a home run over his last two games and has gone 9-for-20 with three extra-base hits (1 HR) off Mike Leake in his career.

OF – Adam Duvall (CIN) (FanDuel: $2,800 / DraftKings: $3,800) – Duvall is a perfect fit for this column. He is likely either going to take a 0-fer or hit a home run. I’m banking on a homer playing at home against a lefty.

Longshot – Logan Morrison (MIN) (FanDuel: $2,400 / DraftKings: $3,100) – Feels like I pick LoMo every day but his salary is still cheap despite collecting five hits over his last three games including a home run last night. He has also taken Carson Fulmer deep in his only plate appearance against the young right-hander.

Cheap Pitching options
FanDuel – Daniel Mengden ($6,700), German Marquez ($6,000)
DraftKings – Nick Kingham ($6,800), Daniel Mengden ($6,400), German Marquez ($6,200)

Results – Wednesday, May 2

Overall Results

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