Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (5/7)
Introduction
Friday night’s Swing for the Fences lineup had a good night with four home runs including two players scoring over 30 FanDuel points. There is only a seven-game MLB DFS slate on Monday night and not a lot of prime home run spots to exploit but hopefully, this collection of hitters will park a few over the fence.
Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.
So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…
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Lineup
C – James McCann (DET) (FanDuel: $2,400 / DraftKings: $3,300) – McCann has seven hits over his last four games including a home run. He has a career .258 ISO against lefties and will face Rangers lefty Mike Minor who has allowed a .364 wOBA to righties this season.
1B – Brandon Belt (SF) (FanDuel: $3,800 / DraftKings: $4,100) – Belt and the Giants gets a favorable park adjustment playing in Philly and will face righty Zach Eflin who has allowed 2.81 HR/9 to left-handed hitters in his career.
2B – Asdrubal Cabrera (NYM) (FanDuel: $4,000 / DraftKings: $4,300)
SS – Paul DeJong (STL) (FanDuel: $3,300 / DraftKings: $4,200)
3B – Kris Bryant (CHC) (FanDuel: $4,200 / DraftKings: $5,300) – Bryant has five extra-base hits over his last six games and has a career .407 wOBA and .264 ISO against lefties. He’ll face lefty Jarlin Garcia who is due for some regression.
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OF – Nicholas Castellanos (DET) (FanDuel: $3,800 / DraftKings: $4,400) – Make sure Castellanos is in the lineup after missing the last game due to illness but if plays he is one of my favorite plays on the slate with his career .241 ISO on the road against lefties and playing in the heat of Texas.
OF – Joey Gallo (TEX) (FanDuel: $3,500 / DraftKings: $4,300) – Gallo hit a pair of bombs on Saturday and has a career .300 ISO at home against righties.
OF – Michael Conforto (NYM) (FanDuel: $3,100 / DraftKings: $3,400) – Conforto got a couple of days off to clear his head and now gets a plus matchup against Reds’ righty Homer Bailey who has allowed two home runs in each of his last three starts.
Longshot – Adrian Gonzalez (NYM) (FanDuel: $2,500 / DraftKings: $3,500) – Gonzalez has hit six home runs in 25 career at-bats against Homer Bailey, granted most of them were a few years back.
Cheap Pitching options
FanDuel – Kyle Hendricks ($7,900), Jeff Samardzija ($6,900), Fernando Romero ($6,400)
DraftKings – Jeff Samardzija ($8,400), Michael Fulmer ($8,000), Fernando Romero ($7,700)
Results – Friday, May 4
| Pos | Name | HR | FD Pts |
| C | Salvador Perez | 0 | 3.0 |
| 1B | Brandon Belt | 0 | 9.5 |
| 2B | Brian Dozier | 1 | 30.7 |
| 3B | Josh Donaldson | 0 | 3.0 |
| SS | Didi Gregorius | 0 | 0.0 |
| OF | Aaron Judge | 1 | 31.2 |
| OF | Justin Upton | 0 | 12.4 |
| OF | Adam Duvall | 1 | 18.7 |
| Longshot | Logan Morrison | 1 | 18.7 |
Overall Results
| Pos | Picks | HR | HR Rate | Avg FD Pts |
| C | 15 | 3 | 20.0% | 10.25 |
| 1B | 16 | 1 | 6.3% | 7.72 |
| 2B | 15 | 2 | 13.3% | 11.91 |
| SS | 16 | 4 | 25.0% | 13.11 |
| 3B | 16 | 4 | 25.0% | 16.35 |
| OF | 47 | 9 | 19.1% | 11.95 |
| Longshot | 17 | 4 | 23.5% | 12.02 |
| Total | 142 | 27 | 19.0% | 11.92 |
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