Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (5/26)

I was able to put together a big four home run night with my picks on Tuesday. Plus two other players who didn’t homer that still put up 18+ points on FanDuel including my man Lucas Duda (who did finally hit one out last night). Well, no Duda today but plenty of solid options with a full slate of games. I’m also experimenting with a new metric I have created that I have coined “Launch Score” that blends together the hitter and opposing pitchers line drive, fly ball and ground ball rates into one score. The higher the score the better for hitters’ opportunities to hit line drives and fly balls because it is quite difficult to hit a ground ball out of the park. I may mention “Launch Score” on occasion in my articles and will try to see if it is a good leading indicator of HR success.

Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

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C – Salvador Perez (KC) (FanDuel: $3,200 / DraftKings: $3,500) – Perez is batting .333 with three homers over his last six games and has a .304 ISO versus right-handed pitchers this season.

1B – Will Myers (SD) (FanDuel: $3,100 / DraftKings: $3,500) – Myers faces Max Scherzer so he will be very low owned. Yet, Scherzer does give up the long ball and Myers is 4-for-9 with a double and two homers off him in his career.

2B – Daniel Murphy (WAS) (FanDuel: $3,800 / DraftKings: $4,900) – Murphy has a .234 ISO versus righties this season and will face right-hander Luis Perdomo who has allowed a .460 wOBA and 1.42 HR/9 to lefties so far this season.

SS – Carlos Correa (HOU) (FanDuel: $3,800 / DraftKings: $4,100) – Correa returned from illness to sock a home run last night and will look to make it two straight against Kevin Gausman who has allowed a .439 wOBA and 1.75 HR/9 to righties this season.

3B – Todd Frazier (CHW) (FanDuel: $3,500 / DraftKings: N/A) – Frazier has hit two of his five homers this season over the last week and has the third highest Launch Score on the slate. He is only available on FD, so look to pivot to Jake Lamb on DK.

OF – Jose Bautista (TOR) (FanDuel: $3,800 / DraftKings: $4,800) – Bautista is the king of the Launch Score tonight with the highest rating. He has multiple hits in five of his last seven games and will face AJ Griffin who has allowed 2.63 HR/9 to righties this season.

OF – Nelson Cruz (SEA) (FanDuel: $3,800 / DraftKings: $4,200) – Cruz is facing a lefty which always puts him in play with a .300 ISO versus southpaws this season (.351 last year). He faces Eduardo Rodriguez who has allowed all five of his homers to righties this year.

OF – George Springer (HOU) (FanDuel: $3,400 / DraftKings: $3,600) – Springer is our BvP special for tonight. He is 3-for-7 with two homers off Kevin Gausman and as mentioned above Gausman has struggled against righties this season.

Longshot – Jed Lowrie (OAK) (FanDuel: $2,300 / DraftKings: $4,000) – No idea why Lowrie is still only $2,300 on FD. He has been on fire over his last six games, batting .520 with four doubles and two long balls.

Cheap Pitching options
FanDuel – Aaron Nola ($8,100), Hector Santiago ($7,000), Zack Godley ($6,400)
DraftKings – Masahiro Tanaka ($8,100), Aaron Nola ($7,700), Zack Godley ($6,300)

Tuesday, May 23 –  Results

Pos	Name	HR	FD Pts
C	Chris Herrmann	1	18.7
1B	Jose Abreu	1	24.9
2B	Ryan Schimpf	1	24.9
SS	Carlos Correa	NA	NA
3B	Jake Lamb	1	22.2
OF	Yasmany Tomas	0	9.2
OF	Josh Reddick	0	18.7
OF	Colby Rasmus	0	3.0
Longshot	Lucas Duda	0	25.7

 

Season Results

Pos	Picks	HR	HR Rate	Avg FD Pts
C	10	2	20.0%	9.03
1B	13	4	30.8%	13.14
2B	13	2	15.4%	11.57
SS	11	3	27.3%	18.28
3B	12	2	16.7%	9.93
OF	40	13	32.5%	14.26
Longshot	12	1	8.3%	10.88
Total	111	27	24.3%	12.91

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