Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (5/9)

Unfortunately, it has been a full week since my last HR prediction article as I was unable to post last Friday. But, we’ll get back to it for Tuesday night’s 14-game slate which includes a ton of good opportunities for homers with a bunch of “gas can” pitchers on the bump. You’ll notice I didn’t list any hitters from the Cubs/Rockies game at Coors Field, of course, there are many good options from that game but it will be difficult to make salaries work if you want any kind of decent pitcher. For what it is worth, Kris Bryant and Mark Reynolds are my top options in that game.

Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

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C – Gary Sanchez (NYY) (FanDuel: $3,200 / DraftKings: $4,800) – Sanchez has yet to homer this season through his first nine games but look for him to get at least one in the Yankees current series with the Reds in Cincy. He has a career .309 ISO versus righties and will face HR prone righty Tim Adleman (1.61 HR/9 to righties).

1B – Edwin Encarnacion (CLE) (FanDuel: $3,100 / DraftKings: $4,100) – Only five home runs for Encarnacion so far this season but he has hits in four straight games and with his return to Toronto to face his former teammates look for a little extra motivation. It also doesn’t hurt that he will face Mike Bolsinger who has allowed 1.36 HR/9 to righties in his career.

2B – Ian Kinsler (DET) (FanDuel: $3,500 / DraftKings: $4,400) – Kinsler has missed the last few games with a hamstring injury so be sure he is in the lineup. If he is he should be able to take advantage of a positive park adjustment in Arizona against lefty Robbie Ray who has allowed a 50.6% hard hit rate this season.

SS – Tim Beckham (TB) (FanDuel: $2,900 / DraftKings: $3,000) – Beckham has already slugged six homers this season and will face the Royals flyballer Chris Young who has allowed 1.27 HR/9 in his career (2.84 last season).

3B – Miguel Sano (MIN) (FanDuel: $3,600 / DraftKings: $4,300) – Sano has seven homers off righties already this season for a .362 ISO. He will face righty Mike Pelfrey who allows a lot of contact with just a 6.3% strikeout rate and allowed 1.06 HR/9 to right-handed hitters last season.

OF – Aaron Judge (NYY) (FanDuel: $4,400 / DraftKings: $4,600) – The only thing slowing Judge down these days is if he is not in the lineup as was the case yesterday. Look for Judge to return to the lineup on Tuesday and take advantage of the Great American “Smallpark” in Cincy.

OF – Adam Duvall (CIN) (FanDuel: $3,700 / DraftKings: $4,200) – Duvall has three homers in just 15 at-bats at home versus lefties this season and had a .305 ISO at home versus righties last year. He will face lefty CC Sabathia who has given up 1.93 HR/9 to righties so far this season, following up a 1.13 HR/9 mark last year.

OF – Khris Davis (OAK) (FanDuel: $3,400 / DraftKings: $4,000) – Seems like Davis shows up on my list every night, I guess that is what happens when you follow up a 42 home run season with 10 homers in the first 31 games this year. Nine of his 10 homers this season have come off righties as he will face the Angels’ young righty Alex Meyer.

Longshot – Colby Rasmus (TB) (FanDuel: $2,400 / DraftKings: $3,400) – Rasmus will face righty Chris Young who he is 3-for-4 with a home run off in his career.

Cheap Pitching options
FanDuel – Charlie Morton ($7,800), Zack Wheeler ($7,300), Julio Urias ($7,200)
DraftKings – Drew Pomeranz ($8,100), Zack Wheeler ($7,700), Charlie Morton ($7,600)

Tuesday, May 2 –  Results

Pos	Name	HR	FD Pts
C	Matt Wieters	NA	NA
1B	Justin Bour	0	6.0
2B	Rougned Odor	0	0.0
3B	Jedd Gyorko	0	0.0
SS	Didi Gregorius	0	6.2
OF	Bryce Harper	0	15.7
OF	Jay Bruce	2	51.4
OF	George Springer	0	9.5
Longshot	Ben Gamel	0	9.2

 

Season Results

Pos	Picks	HR	HR Rate	Avg FD Pts
C	7	0	0.0%	6.70
1B	9	2	22.2%	12.09
2B	9	1	11.1%	9.52
SS	8	3	37.5%	20.80
3B	8	1	12.5%	8.98
OF	26	11	42.3%	16.60
Longshot	7	1	14.3%	8.87
Total	74	19	25.7%	13.15

 

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