Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (6/18)
Introduction
Only one homer on Friday’s lineup but with a couple of players on the list not playing and the home run guy, Nolan Arenado, producing a big game (47.1 FD points) it was still a solid lineup. Monday gives us a nine or 10-game MLB slate depending on the site you play. Despite a game at Coors Field and some heat in the Midwest, I have a feeling that home runs and fantasy points could be tough to come by tonight.
Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.
So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…
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Lineup
C – Yasmani Grandal (LAD) (FanDuel: $2,800 / DraftKings: $3,900) – A rare case of my recommending Grandal on the road but he is 6-for-11 with three extra-base hits against Tyler Chatwood in his career.
1B – Eric Thames (MIL) (FanDuel: $3,200 / DraftKings: $4,800) – Thames shaved off his beard and hit two homers yesterday. He has a .420 ISO and nine homers off righties this season.
2B – Asdrubal Cabrera (NYM) (FanDuel: $3,300 / DraftKings: $4,300) – At a tough position to fill, give me the reasonably priced 2B hitting at Coors Field.
SS – Carlos Correa (HOU) (FanDuel: $4,300 / DraftKings: $4,800) – Correa has three multi-hit games over his last four starts including a pair of homers.
3B – Mike Moustakas (KC) (FanDuel: $3,900 / DraftKings: $3,900) – Warm weather and the wind blowing out in KC tonight could lead to some long balls against Bartolo Colon who has allowed six homers in his last three starts.
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OF – Bryce Harper (WAS) (FanDuel: $4,300 / DraftKings: $NA) – Harper has apparently followed Eric Thames led and shaved off his beard, hoping for the two-homer success Thames had. I’m not betting against it.
OF – Joey Gallo (TEX) (FanDuel: $2,900 / DraftKings: $3,900) – Gallo could also take advantage of favorable weather conditions in KC along with a home run prone righty Ian Kennedy who has allowed 1.80 HR/9 to lefties at home this season.
OF – Joc Pederson (LAD) (FanDuel: $2,800 / DraftKings: $4,400) – Pederson has eight homers and a .305 ISO against righties this season (.426 on the road).
Longshot – Nick Williams (PHI) (FanDuel: $2,500 / DraftKings: $3,400) – Williams has a 66.7% hard-hit rate over his last four games that has included two doubles and a home run.
Cheap Pitching options
FanDuel – Nick Pivetta ($7,500), Dylan Covey ($7,200), Tyler Anderson ($6,200)
DraftKings – Miles Mikolas ($8,300), Dylan Covey ($7,000), Tyler Anderson ($6,200)
Results – Friday, June 15
| Pos | Name | HR | FD Pts |
| C | Robinson Chirinos | NA | NA |
| 1B | Justin Bour | 0 | 0.0 |
| 2B | Jedd Gyorko | 0 | 0.0 |
| 3B | Nolan Arenado | 1 | 47.1 |
| SS | Trevor Story | 0 | 22.0 |
| OF | Bryce Harper | 0 | 18.4 |
| OF | Rhys Hoskins | 0 | 0.0 |
| OF | Corey Dickerson | 0 | 3.0 |
| Longshot | Jake Marisnick | NA | NA |
Overall Results
| Pos | Picks | HR | HR Rate | Avg FD Pts |
| C | 24 | 5 | 20.8% | 8.85 |
| 1B | 29 | 2 | 6.9% | 8.57 |
| 2B | 28 | 3 | 10.7% | 9.28 |
| SS | 28 | 5 | 17.9% | 12.35 |
| 3B | 28 | 10 | 35.7% | 17.27 |
| OF | 86 | 15 | 17.4% | 11.29 |
| Longshot | 29 | 7 | 24.1% | 10.79 |
| Total | 252 | 47 | 18.7% | 11.25 |
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