Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (6/18)

Introduction

Only one homer on Friday’s lineup but with a couple of players on the list not playing and the home run guy, Nolan Arenado, producing a big game (47.1 FD points) it was still a solid lineup. Monday gives us a nine or 10-game MLB slate depending on the site you play. Despite a game at Coors Field and some heat in the Midwest, I have a feeling that home runs and fantasy points could be tough to come by tonight.

Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

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Lineup

mlb fanduel and draftkings lineup 6/18

C – Yasmani Grandal (LAD) (FanDuel: $2,800 / DraftKings: $3,900) – A rare case of my recommending Grandal on the road but he is 6-for-11 with three extra-base hits against Tyler Chatwood in his career.

1B – Eric Thames (MIL) (FanDuel: $3,200 / DraftKings: $4,800) – Thames shaved off his beard and hit two homers yesterday. He has a .420 ISO and nine homers off righties this season.

2B – Asdrubal Cabrera (NYM) (FanDuel: $3,300 / DraftKings: $4,300) – At a tough position to fill, give me the reasonably priced 2B hitting at Coors Field.

SS – Carlos Correa (HOU) (FanDuel: $4,300 / DraftKings: $4,800) – Correa has three multi-hit games over his last four starts including a pair of homers.

3B – Mike Moustakas (KC) (FanDuel: $3,900 / DraftKings: $3,900) – Warm weather and the wind blowing out in KC tonight could lead to some long balls against Bartolo Colon who has allowed six homers in his last three starts.

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OF – Bryce Harper (WAS) (FanDuel: $4,300 / DraftKings: $NA) – Harper has apparently followed Eric Thames led and shaved off his beard, hoping for the two-homer success Thames had. I’m not betting against it.

OF – Joey Gallo (TEX) (FanDuel: $2,900 / DraftKings: $3,900) – Gallo could also take advantage of favorable weather conditions in KC along with a home run prone righty Ian Kennedy who has allowed 1.80 HR/9 to lefties at home this season.

OF – Joc Pederson (LAD) (FanDuel: $2,800 / DraftKings: $4,400) – Pederson has eight homers and a .305 ISO against righties this season (.426 on the road).

Longshot – Nick Williams (PHI) (FanDuel: $2,500 / DraftKings: $3,400) – Williams has a 66.7% hard-hit rate over his last four games that has included two doubles and a home run.

Cheap Pitching options
FanDuel – Nick Pivetta ($7,500), Dylan Covey ($7,200), Tyler Anderson ($6,200)
DraftKings – Miles Mikolas ($8,300), Dylan Covey ($7,000), Tyler Anderson ($6,200)

Results – Friday, June 15

Pos Name HR FD Pts
C Robinson Chirinos NA NA
1B Justin Bour 0 0.0
2B Jedd Gyorko 0 0.0
3B Nolan Arenado 1 47.1
SS Trevor Story 0 22.0
OF Bryce Harper 0 18.4
OF Rhys Hoskins 0 0.0
OF Corey Dickerson 0 3.0
Longshot Jake Marisnick NA NA

 

Overall Results

Pos Picks HR HR Rate Avg FD Pts
C 24 5 20.8% 8.85
1B 29 2 6.9% 8.57
2B 28 3 10.7% 9.28
SS 28 5 17.9% 12.35
3B 28 10 35.7% 17.27
OF 86 15 17.4% 11.29
Longshot 29 7 24.1% 10.79
Total 252 47 18.7% 11.25

 

If you have any suggestions or feedback for the article, follow me and hit me up on Twitter @Rotopilot

 

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Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

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