Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (6/2)

Tuesday’s lineup was only able to manage one long ball, from the catcher none the less. There are a bunch of high-priced ace pitching option on the 14-game Friday night slate and we are even going to try to pick on a couple of them with tonight’s home run hitters.

Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.

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So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

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C – Salvador Perez (KC) (FanDuel: $3,300 / DraftKings: $3,500) – Perez has crushed opposing pitcher Josh Tomlin in his career with a .514 average (18-for-35) with eight doubles and a homer.

1B – Brandon Belt (SF) (FanDuel: $3,400 / DraftKings: $4,000) – Belt has one of the highest launch scores (a metric I introduced a week ago) at 104.7. He has a .300 ISO on the road versus righties and will get a favorable park adjustment in Philadelphia against righty Jerad Eickhoff who has allowed 1.64 HR/9 to lefties this season.

2B – Jason Kipnis (CLE) (FanDuel: $3,100 / DraftKings: $4,100) – Tough finding a good home run candidate at 2B tonight so I’ll go with Kipnis who has had some success against Jason Vargas in his career going 10-for-29 with a homer while Vargas has allowed 1.74 HR/9 to lefties so far this season.

SS – Carlos Correa (HOU) (FanDuel: $3,500 / DraftKings: $5,400) – Correa might go under-owned matching up with Yu Darvish but he has been on fire lately batting .516 with three homers over his last seven games.

3B – Mike Moustakas (KC) (FanDuel: $3,000 / DraftKings: $4,100) – Moustakas has three homers over his last seven games and has a .261 ISO versus righties this season. He will face Indians right-hander Josh Tomlin who has allowed 1.51 HR/9 to lefties in his career.

OF – Matt Kemp (ATL) (FanDuel: $3,800 / DraftKings: $4,600) – Kemp has homered in back-to-back games and will get a prime matchup against Bronson Arroyo who Kemp has gone 12-for-28 with a pair of homers off in his career.

OF – Scott Schebler (CIN) (FanDuel: $3,100 / DraftKings: $4,200) – Schebler is on a home run tear with six long balls over his last 11 games. He gets a favorable matchup against Mike Foltynewicz who has allowed 1.71 HR/9 to lefties this season.

OF – Khris Davis (OAK) (FanDuel: $3,100 / DraftKings: $4,100) – Davis is another hitter facing a good pitcher, Stephen Strasburg. However, Davis has had success against Strasburg with two homers in just six at-bats.

Longshot – Matt Adams (ATL) (FanDuel: $2,600 / DraftKings: $3,600) – If you want more exposure to Bronson Arroyo and his 4.22 HR/9 allowed to lefties this season then look to include Adams in your lineup.

Cheap Pitching options
FanDuel –  Michael Pineda ($8,500), Gerrit Cole ($8,700)
DraftKings – Michael Pineda ($8,600), Michael Fulmer ($8,000), Gerrit Cole ($7,800), German Marquez ($7,200)

 

Wednesday, May 30 –  Results

Pos	Name	HR	FD Pts
C	Austin Hedges	1	35.2
1B	Hanley Ramirez	0	3.0
2B	Brian Dozier	0	0.0
3B	Nolan Arenado	0	0.0
SS	Trevor Story	0	15.2
OF	Nelson Cruz	0	6.2
OF	J.D. Martinez	0	0.0
OF	Andrew McCutchen	0	3.0
Longshot	Chris Young	0	12.4

 

Season Results

Pos	Picks	HR	HR Rate	Avg FD Pts
C	12	3	25.0%	10.46
1B	15	4	26.7%	11.59
2B	14	2	14.3%	10.74
SS	13	3	23.1%	17.33
3B	14	2	14.3%	9.39
OF	46	13	28.3%	12.73
Longshot	14	1	7.1%	11.32
Total	128	28	21.9%	12.11

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