Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (6/23)

Tuesday’s high-priced home run hitters came through with both Paul Goldschmidt and Aaron Judge going yard but the rest of the lineup was unable to park one over the wall. There aren’t many dirt cheap pitching options on Friday night’s slate so we’ll need to find some home run hitters that offer a little bit of a value. This was especially possible on DraftKings where you can still get two very strong pitching options with the list of value home run hitters below.

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Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

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C – Alex Avila (DET) (FanDuel: $3,000 / DraftKings: $3,600) – Avila has a massive .309 ISO with 11 homers versus righties this season. He will face Padres right-hander Dinelson Lamet who has allowed a .463 wOBA and 4.15 HR/9 to lefties this season including four homers in just 4.1 innings at home.

1B – Logan Morrison (TB) (FanDuel: $3,600 / DraftKings: $4,700) – Morrison has at least one hit in nine of his last 10 games including four long balls and will face Ubaldo Jimenez who Morrison has gone 5-for-9 with two doubles and a home run off in his career.

2B – Rougned Odor (TEX) (FanDuel: $3,400 / DraftKings: $3,400) – Odor has hit all 12 of his homers this season off right-handed pitching with a .231 ISO. He will face Yankees’ righty Masahiro Tanaka in Yankee Stadium where Tanaka has allowed 2.67 HR/9 this season. Odor has also taken Tanaka deep once in five career at-bats.

SS – Chad Pinder (OAK) (FanDuel: $2,800 / DraftKings: $3,700) – Pinder has a .288 ISO versus right-handed pitchers this season and will get a favorable park adjustment in Chicago against the White Sox and right-handed pitcher Mike Pelfrey.

3B – Travis Shaw (MIL) (FanDuel: $3,400 / DraftKings: $4,200) – Shaw had three extra-base hits yesterday and has .274 ISO versus righties this season. He will face Braves’ right-hander Mike Foltynewicz who has given up a .402 wOBA and 1.74 HR/9 to lefties this season.

OF – Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) (FanDuel: $4,000 / DraftKings: $4,200) – Stanton has a seven homers and a .236 at home versus righties this season and will face Cubs right-hander John Lackey who has allowed 1.76 HR/9 to righties this season.

OF – Khris Davis (OAK) (FanDuel: $3,900 / DraftKings: $4,100) – Davis has four doubles and a home run over his last five games and will get a favorable park adjustment in Chicago against the White Sox. Davis has hit 17 of his 18 homers off righties this season and will face right-hander Mike Pelfrey.

OF – Brett Gardner (NYY) (FanDuel: $3,500 / DraftKings: $4,200) – Gardner is the BvP special of the day with his 5-for-11 with four home runs off Yu Darvish in his career.

Longshot – Scooter Gennett (CIN) (FanDuel: $2,700 / DraftKings: $3,600) – Gennett has flashed some power this season with nine homers and has had success against Stephen Strasburg in his career going 2-for-5 with a pair of long balls.

Cheap Pitching options
FanDuel – Jameson Taillon ($7,800), Dinelson Lamet ($7,500), Jharel Cotton ($7,400)
DraftKings – Alex Wood ($9,600), Michael Fulmer ($8,300), Jimmy Nelson ($8,500)

Tuesday, June 20 –  Results

Pos	Name	HR	FD Pts
C	Russell Martin	0	6.0
1B	Paul Goldschmidt	1	24.9
2B	Brian Dozier	0	0.0
3B	Nick Castellanos	0	3.0
SS	Aledmys Diaz	0	6.2
OF	Aaron Judge	1	18.7
OF	Adam Jones	0	12.5
OF	Lonnie Chisenhall	0	9.0
Longshot	Kyle Schwarber	NA	NA

 

Season Results

Pos	Picks	HR	HR Rate	Avg FD Pts
C	18	4	22.2%	10.60
1B	21	6	28.6%	12.20
2B	20	3	15.0%	10.02
SS	19	5	26.3%	16.38
3B	20	3	15.0%	8.41
OF	62	14	22.6%	11.65
Longshot	19	3	15.8%	11.18
Total	179	38	21.2%	11.51

 

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