Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (6/6)

Friday’s lineup hit a couple of bombs and had a couple other solid scores but probably not enough for a payday. Overall, I currently have a 20% success rate at every position except 2B and Longshot which isn’t surprising since those are going to be two places with a lower probability of hitting a long ball. We’ll give it another go for a full 15-game slate on Tuesday that includes games at Coors Field and Chase Field. I also like the Mets’ bats a lot tonight playing in Texas.

Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

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C – Alex Avila (DET) (FanDuel: $3,000 / DraftKings: $3,400) – Avila has two homers over his last three games and has been batting second versus righties lately. He will face right-hander Jesse Chavez who has allowed 14 homers this season.

1B – Lucas Duda (NYM) (FanDuel: $2,900 / DraftKings: $4,900) – Duda has graduated from “longshot” to the main lineup with six homers over his last 11 games. He will face right-hander Dillon Gee who allowed 1.51 HR/9 to lefties last season.

2B – Neil Walker (NYM) (FanDuel: $3,100 / DraftKings: $4,700) – Walker might not go deep off starter Dillon Gee but look for him to a get a couple of at-bats against the Rangers bullpen that has a 4.76 ERA and has allowed 1.39 HR/9 this year.

SS – Francisco Lindor (CLE) (FanDuel: $4,200 / DraftKings: $5,100) – Needed to get some exposure to Coors Field, so going with Lindor who has a .235 ISO versus righties this season going against right-hander Antonio Senzatela who has allowed 1.29 HR/9 to lefties at home this year.

3B – Jake Lamb (ARI) (FanDuel: $3,900 / DraftKings: $5,100) – Needed to get some exposure to Chase Field, so going with Lamb who has a .295 ISO at home versus righties this season.

OF – Nelson Cruz (SEA) (FanDuel: $4,300 / DraftKings: $4,900) – Cruz has a .429 ISO at home versus lefties this season and will face Twins lefty Hector Santiago in Seattle. Santiago has allowed 1.51 HR/9 to right-handed hitters in his career.

OF – Jay Bruce (NYM) (FanDuel: $3,600 / DraftKings: $4,600) – Bruce has hit 12 of his 13 homers off righties this season with a .303 ISO. He faces righty Dillon Gee and the terrible Rangers bullpen.

OF – Dexter Fowler (STL) (FanDuel: $ / DraftKings: $4,900) – All eight of Fowler’s homer have come versus righties and he will face Reds’ righty Tim Adleman who has allowed 1.71 HR/9 to lefties this season.

Longshot – Chris Carter (NYY) (FanDuel: $2,200 / DraftKings: $3,200) – Carter has a career .235 ISO versus lefties while lefty Drew Pomeranz has allowed 1.27 HR/9 to right-handed hitters this season.

Cheap Pitching options
FanDuel – Aaron Nola ($7,500), Jesse Hahn ($7,200), David Paulino ($6,700)
DraftKings – David Paulino ($6,200), Aaron Nola ($6,000), Jesse Hahn ($5,600)

 

Friday, June 2 –  Results

Pos	Name	HR	FD Pts
C	Salvador Perez	0	0.0
1B	Brandon Belt	0	16.2
2B	Jason Kipnis	0	3.0
3B	Mike Moustakas	1	18.7
SS	Carlos Correa	1	25.7
OF	Matt Kemp	0	12.0
OF	Scott Schebler	0	0.0
OF	Khris Davis	0	0.0
Longshot	Matt Adams	0	3.0

 

Season Results

Pos	Picks	HR	HR Rate	Avg FD Pts
C	13	3	23.1%	9.65
1B	16	4	25.0%	11.88
2B	15	2	13.3%	10.23
SS	14	4	28.6%	17.93
3B	15	3	20.0%	10.01
OF	49	13	26.5%	12.19
Longshot	15	1	6.7%	10.77
Total	137	30	21.9%	11.89

 

 

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