Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (7/26)
It has been a couple weeks since I produced a Swing for the Fences article while I was away on vacation but I am back at it today and plan to get back into a groove providing some home run predictions a few times per week. Today’s home run predictions will focus on the nine-game Wednesday night slate.
Note that I have started adding the FanDuel and DraftKings prices for each player listed. Also, note that positions listed are based on FanDuel.
So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…
C – Salvador Perez (KC) (FanDuel: $3,300 / DraftKings: $3,200) – Perez will face Matt Shoemaker who has pitched better this season but is still allowing 1.47 HR/9 to righties. Perez has also had success against Shoemaker going 6-for-8 with a double and homer in his career.
1B – Albert Pujols (LAA) (FanDuel: $3,500 / DraftKings: $4,700) – Pujols has a .250 ISO against lefties this season and will face Royals lefty Danny Duffy who has allowed 1.41 HR/9 to righties this season. Pujols has been hitting homers in pairs this month, maybe he can get a couple more tonight.
2B – Gordon Beckham (ATL) (FanDuel: $3,100 / DraftKings: $3,300) – Not a lot of good options for homers at second base tonight so I will pick on the Twins righty Tyler Duffey who has allowed 2.23 HR/9 to righties this season.
SS – Carlos Correa (HOU) (FanDuel: $3,300 / DraftKings: $4,900) – Correa has hit 14 of his 15 homers against righties this season with a .249 ISO. He will face Yankees righty Masahiro Tanaka tonight who he has gone 3-for-6 with two homers against in his career.
3B – Adrian Beltre (TEX) (FanDuel: $3,500 / DraftKings: $5,100) – Beltre has three homers over his last four games and has a .202 ISO against lefties this season. He will face Athletics lefty Sean Manaea who has allowed 1.29 HR/9 to righties this season.
OF – Mike Trout (LAA) (FanDuel: $4,200 / DraftKings: $4,600) – Trout only has two homers in July but will have a good opportunity to hit one tonight against Duffy.
OF – Khris Davis (OAK) (FanDuel: $3,900 / DraftKings: $3,400) – Davis got the day off yesterday and I like playing hitters after a day off. Davis is always a threat to go deep and will be playing in the heat of Texas tonight. Rangers starter Yu Darvish hasn’t gone more than six innings yet so Davis could get a couple at-bats against a Rangers’ bullpen that has allowed 1.41 HR/9 this season.
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OF – Andrew McCutchen (PIT) (FanDuel: $3,000 / DraftKings: $3,700) – McCutchen has struggled somewhat this season but is at a reasonable price and has home run upside against Mariners lefty James Paxton tonight.
Longshot – Mark Teixeira (NYY) (FanDuel: $2,500 / DraftKings: $2,500) – Teixeira has hit all nine of his homers this season against righties and will face Astros righty Lance McCullers making him a decent cheap power option tonight
Season Results
| Pos | Picks | HR | HR Rate | Avg FD Pts |
| C | 18 | 8 | 44.4% | 15.64 |
| 1B | 17 | 4 | 23.5% | 11.24 |
| 2B | 18 | 1 | 5.6% | 9.08 |
| SS | 18 | 4 | 22.2% | 11.59 |
| 3B | 18 | 4 | 22.2% | 14.23 |
| OF | 54 | 15 | 27.8% | 14.81 |
| Longshot | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 11.67 |
| Total | 153 | 38 | 24.8% | 13.19 |
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