Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (7/29)
With a big day from Andrew McCutchen and Khris Davis with two homers (told you he would hit a homer off the Rangers’ bullpen) I have pushed my overall success rate over the 25% mark. It will take some work but I hope to approach the 30% mark by the end of the season. We have a 14-game night slate to evaluate for Friday with a lot of good options including some with strong BvP numbers to support an already good matchup. A few stacks I like with HR upside tonight include the Royals, Rays and Padres.
So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…
C – Brian McCann (NYY) (FanDuel: $3,100 / DraftKings: $3,200) – McCann makes the list again due to his great success against the Rays’ Jake Odorizzi who he has gone 12-for-23 with three homers against in his career.
1B – Kendrys Morales (KC) (FanDuel: $3,000 / DraftKings: $3,300) – Morales will face Rangers’ righty A.J. Griffin who has allowed 2.32 HR/9 to lefties this season. Morales has also had some success in limited at-bats against Griffin going 3-for-8 with a homer.
2B – Brian Dozier (MIN) (FanDuel: $3,200 / DraftKings: $4,000) – Dozier has a huge .372 ISO against lefties this season and has had success against lefty Jose Quintana with four homers in 40 career at-bats.
SS – Brad Miller (TB) (FanDuel: $3,500 / DraftKings: $3,700) – Miller has hit 14 of his 15 homers against righties and has a .269 ISO at home against righties this season. He will play at home against Yankees’ righty Ivan Nova who has allowed 1.76 HR/9 to lefties this season.
3B – Todd Frazier (CHW) (FanDuel: $3,400 / DraftKings: $4,700) – Frazier has hit 22 of his 29 homers against righties this season for a .242 ISO against righties and will face Twins’ righty Ricky Nolasco who has reverse splits allowing more damage to righties including a 1.75 HR/9 this season.
OF – George Springer (HOU) (FanDuel: $3,700 / DraftKings: $5,000) – Springer has a .294 ISO against lefties this season and will face Tigers’ lefty Matt Boyd who has allowed all six of his homers this season to righties for a 1.45 HR/9.
OF – Matt Kemp (SD) (FanDuel: $3,200 / DraftKings: $4,800) – Hard to believe Kemp is the only Padre hitter I went with tonight (definitely consider Wil Myers also). Kemp is in a great spot with seven homers over his last 11 games and a .352 ISO against lefties this season. He will face Reds’ lefty Brandon Finnegan who has allowed 21 homers to righties this season (1.64 HR/9).
OF – Corey Dickerson (TB) (FanDuel: $2,800 / DraftKings: $3,300) – Dickerson is another lefty Rays’ bat to use against Nova. Dickerson has hit all 14 of his homers against righties this season with a .257 ISO.
Longshot – Alex Gordon (KC) (FanDuel: $2,600 / DraftKings: $3,900) – Gordon is another strong BvP play tonight. He has gone 6-for-7 with a double and homer off A.J. Griffin.
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Wednesday, July 27 – Results
| Pos | Name | HR | FD Pts |
| C | Salvador Perez | 0 | 9.2 |
| 1B | Albert Pujols | 0 | 6.5 |
| 2B | Gordon Beckham | 0 | 28.1 |
| SS | Carlos Correa | 0 | 12.7 |
| 3B | Adrian Beltre | 0 | 9.5 |
| OF | Khris Davis | 2 | 46.9 |
| OF | Mike Trout | 0 | 12.2 |
| OF | Andrew McCutchen | 1 | 41.4 |
| Longshot | Mark Teixeira | 0 | 3.0 |
Season Results
| Pos | Picks | HR | HR Rate | Avg FD Pts |
| C | 19 | 8 | 42.1% | 15.30 |
| 1B | 18 | 4 | 22.2% | 10.97 |
| 2B | 19 | 1 | 5.3% | 10.08 |
| SS | 19 | 4 | 21.1% | 11.65 |
| 3B | 19 | 4 | 21.1% | 13.98 |
| OF | 57 | 18 | 31.6% | 15.80 |
| Longshot | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 10.88 |
| Total | 162 | 41 | 25.3% | 13.50 |
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