Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (7/8)
Today’s home run predictions will be for the full 15-game slate as we near the All-Star break. On a night with a ton of Ace pitchers on the mound finding the hitters who hit the ball out of the park could be the key to a successful DFS night.
Note that I have included the FanDuel and DraftKings prices for each player listed. Also, note that positions listed are based on FanDuel.
So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…
C – Salvador Perez (KC) (FanDuel: $3,200 / DraftKings: $3,000) – Perez has had more success against righties this season with nine homers and a .216 ISO this season. He will face Mariners righty Hisashi Iwakuma who has struggled with the long ball this season including allowing 1.61 HR/9 to righties.
1B – Adrian Gonzalez (LAD) (FanDuel: $3,300 / DraftKings: $3,700) – Gonzalez only has six homers on the season but he may be able to go deep tonight against Andrew Cashner whom he has hit four homers in 37 plate appearances with a .344 batting average in his career.
2B – Ian Kinsler (DET) (FanDuel: $3,600 / DraftKings: $4,400) – Kinsler is on his way to his first 20+ homer season since 2011 this year and will get a favorable matchup in a good hitters’ park in Toronto against lefty J.A. Happ. Kinsler has a .399 wOBA and .223 ISO against lefties this season.
SS – Troy Tulowitzki (TOR) (FanDuel: $3,200 / DraftKings: $4,800) – Tulowitzki has hit well since returning from the DL three weeks ago batting .328 with seven homers in 17 games. He will have a good shot to add to his home run total tonight against Mike Pelfrey who has allowed 1.42 HR/9 to righties this season.
3B – Kris Bryant (CHC) (FanDuel: $3,600 / DraftKings: $5,500) – Bryant has hit seven homers over his last 11 games and has a .277 ISO against lefties in his career. He will face Pirates lefty Francisco Liriano tonight who he has gone 4-for-9 with two doubles and a homer against in his career.
OF – Carlos Gonzalez (COL) (FanDuel: $4,600 / DraftKings: $5,300) – Gonzalez is my only Coors Field hitter tonight in a game that might be lower scoring (at least for Coors Field) with two solid pitchers on the hill. Gonzalez is always in play at home against a righty with a .343 ISO this season. Gonzalez has also taken opposing pitcher Vincent Velasquez deep once in three career at-bats.
OF – Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) (FanDuel: $3,600 / DraftKings: $4,900) – I think it is safe to say that Stanton has broken out of his slump with back-to-back two-homer games. Stanton will face off against the Reds’ Dan Straily who has given up 1.27 HR/9 to righties this season and a Reds’ bullpen that has given up a league-worst 1.88 HR/9.
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OF – Adam Jones (BAL) (FanDuel: $3,000 / DraftKings: $4,500) – Jones is a reverse splits hitter who has hit 14 of his 16 homers this season against righties with a .213 ISO. He will face righty Matt Shoemaker who also has reverse splits allowing a higher wOBA to righties. Jones has hit two homers off Shoemaker in nine career plate appearances.
Longshot – Robinson Chirinos (TEX) (FanDuel: $2,400 / DraftKings: $3,500) – Since I’ve had so much success recommending catchers, I will go with a catcher for my Longshot pick tonight. Chirinos has hit six homers in just 123 plate appearances this season and has gone 4-for-5 with a homer off Twins pitcher Kyle Gibson.
Wednesday, July 6 – Results
| Pos | Name | HR | FD Pts |
| C | Evan Gattis | 1 | 22.2 |
| 1B | Jose Abreu | 0 | 0.0 |
| 2B | Brett Lawrie | 0 | 9.7 |
| SS | Xander Bogaerts | 0 | 15.4 |
| 3B | Evan Longoria | 0 | 12.2 |
| OF | Mookie Betts | 0 | 18.7 |
| OF | Mike Trout | 1 | 34.4 |
| OF | Matt Holliday | 0 | 3.0 |
| Longshot | Brett Wallace | DNP |
Season Results
| Pos | Picks | HR | HR Rate | Avg FD Pts |
| C | 17 | 7 | 41.2% | 15.09 |
| 1B | 16 | 4 | 25.0% | 10.60 |
| 2B | 17 | 1 | 5.9% | 9.44 |
| SS | 17 | 4 | 23.5% | 12.09 |
| 3B | 17 | 4 | 23.5% | 14.36 |
| OF | 51 | 14 | 27.5% | 14.78 |
| Longshot | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 11.67 |
| Total | 145 | 36 | 24.8% | 13.15 |
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