Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (8/12)
Sometimes when it rains it pours (literally). As I am trying to get out of my recent cold stretch over the last couple of articles, I finally get on the board again with a couple of homers on Wednesday only to have one of them (Brian Dozier) wiped out due to the cancellation of the game due to rain. Oh well, I won’t blame Mother Nature or the DFS “gods”, as it was said in the movie Bull Durham, “sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains”.
Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.
So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…
C – Yasmani Grandal (LAD) (FanDuel: $3,000 / DraftKings: $4,700) – Grandal has hit 14 of his 18 homers this season at home against righties with .402 ISO. He will face Yankees’ righty Ivan Nova who has allowed 2.70 HR/9 to lefties on the road this season.
1B – Mike Napoli (CLE) (FanDuel: $3,800 / DraftKings: $5,000) – Napoli is a streaky hitter and is coming off a four-hit game last night including a homer. He hits lefties better than righties over his career and will face lefty Tyler Skaggs who has allowed 1.20 HR/9 to righties in his career.
2B – Jose Altuve (HOU) (FanDuel: $4,000 / DraftKings: $5,100) – Altuve has a .459 wOBA and .239 ISO against lefties this season and will face lefty Francisco Liriano in hitter-friendly Toronto tonight.
SS – Marcus Semien (OAK) (FanDuel: $3,200 / DraftKings: $4,000) – Semien has been hitting near the top of the order recently and has hit 10 homers off lefties this season with a .307 ISO. He will be opposed by Mariners’ rookie lefty Ariel Miranda who has allowed two homers in nine big league innings so far.
3B – Danny Valencia (OAK) (FanDuel: $3,100 / DraftKings: $4,100) – Valencia has hit lefties better over his career including a .270 ISO this season against southpaws.
OF – George Springer (HOU) (FanDuel: $4,100 / DraftKings: $4,700) – Springer is another Astros’ right-handed batter that fares well against lefties with a .303 ISO this season. He will face lefty Liriano who has allowed 1.59 HR/9 to righties this season.
OF – Nelson Cruz (SEA) (FanDuel: $3,900 / DraftKings: $4,900) – Cruz is always an option to go deep when facing a lefty. Tonight is no different facing Athletics lefty Sean Manaea who has allowed two homers in each of his last two starts and 1.63 HR/9 to righties this season.
OF – Marcell Ozuna (MIA) (FanDuel: $3,100 / DraftKings: $4,200) – Ozuna has been ice cold recently batting .048 over his last six games but has a .330 batting average and .340 ISO against lefties this season. He will face lefty Carlos Rodon who has allowed 16 of his 17 homers to righties this season.
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Longshot – Alex Rodriguez (NYY) (FanDuel: $696 / DraftKings: $2,600) – Rodriguez bids farewell tonight against Chris Archer and the Rays. FanDuel uniquely priced him at $696 to match his career home run total. He will be highly owned due to the low salary and hype but he does actually have a decent matchup against Archer who he has hit two homers off in 15 career at-bats and has allowed 1.42 HR/9 to righties this season.
Wednesday, August 10 – Results
| Pos | Name | HR | FD Pts |
| C | Jonathan Lucroy | 1 | 21.7 |
| 1B | David Ortiz | 0 | 9.0 |
| 2B | Brian Dozier | PPD | |
| SS | Carlos Correa | PPD | |
| 3B | Nolan Arenado | 0 | 6.2 |
| OF | Matt Kemp | 0 | 0.0 |
| OF | Mark Trumbo | 0 | 0.0 |
| OF | Brandon Moss | 0 | 9.5 |
| Longshot | Melvin Upton Jr. | 0 | 24.0 |
- Dozier homered but game cancelled after two innings
Season Results
| Pos | Picks | HR | HR Rate | Avg FD Pts |
| C | 23 | 9 | 39.1% | 14.23 |
| 1B | 23 | 5 | 21.7% | 10.98 |
| 2B | 23 | 1 | 4.3% | 9.80 |
| SS | 23 | 4 | 17.4% | 11.10 |
| 3B | 23 | 4 | 17.4% | 12.34 |
| OF | 72 | 19 | 26.4% | 14.12 |
| Longshot | 16 | 2 | 12.5% | 10.32 |
| Total | 203 | 44 | 21.7% | 12.44 |
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