Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (8/17)

My home run predictions on Monday had a break-thru performance with five home runs from five different players. It was a satisfying bounce-back performance and the biggest single day home run output since starting this article. Let’s keep the momentum going by looking at tonight’s 10-game slate.

Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

C – Welington Castillo (ARI) (FanDuel: $3,000 / DraftKings: $4,700) – Castillo has crushed lefties this season hitting seven out of his 12 homers against lefties with a .326 ISO. He will face Mets lefty Jon Niese who has allowed 1.97 HR/9 to righties this season.

1B – Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) (FanDuel: $4,400 / DraftKings: $5,500) – Doubling-down on Diamondbacks’ hitters with Goldschmidt who is always a solid play. He has made hard contact 60% of the time over the last three games with three extra-base hits.

2B – Chase Utley (LAD) (FanDuel: $2,800 / DraftKings: $3,900) – Utley clubbed two homers yesterday against his former team and fans in Philadelphia. Look for Utley to continue the good homecoming tonight in another favorable matchup against rookie righty Jake Thompson and a Phillies’ bullpen that has allowed 1.34 HR/9 this season.

SS – Corey Seager (LAD) (FanDuel: $3,800 / DraftKings: $5,000) – Seager hit two homers against the Phillies nine days ago and will look to duplicate the feat tonight. He has hit 16 of his 21 homers off righties with a .228 ISO.

3B – Maikel Franco (PHI) (FanDuel: $3,100 / DraftKings: $3,300) – Franco will face Dodgers lefty Scott Kazmir who has had trouble with the long ball this season allowing 1.60 HR/9 to righties this season and at least one homer in five of his last six starts. Meanwhile, Franco owns a .235 ISO against lefties this season.

OF – Carlos Beltran (TEX) (FanDuel: $4,000 / DraftKings: $5,100) – Beltran is enjoying his time in Texas batting .340 with two homers since joining the Rangers. He will face lefty Sean Manaea who has allowed six homers over his last four starts and is allowing a 1.56 HR/9 to righties this season, while Beltran has a .354 average and .269 ISO against lefties this season.

OF – Jay Bruce (NYM) (FanDuel: $3,900 / DraftKings: $5,000) – Bruce gets a favorable park adjustment playing in Arizona tonight against Diamondbacks righty Zach Godley. Bruce has destroyed righties this season with 21 homers and a .291 ISO.

OF – Mark Trumbo (BAL) (FanDuel: $3,200 / DraftKings: $4,000) – Trumbo has what appears to be a touch matchup against David Price. However, Price has allowed 1.17 HR/9 to righties this season and Trumbo has had some success against Price in his career batting .360 with two doubles and two homers over 25 at-bats.

Longshot – Tommy Joseph (PHI) (FanDuel: $2,400 / DraftKings: $3,600) – Joseph has cooled off this month batting just .160 with one homer but with 15 homers on the season and a reduced price he still has home run upside.

 

Monday, August 15 –  Results

Pos	Name	HR	FD Pts
C	Jonathan Lucroy	0	6.0
1B	Wil Myers	0	3.0
2B	Neil Walker	1	27.9
SS	Marcus Semien	0	9.2
3B	Adrian Beltre	1	35.2
OF	Mike Trout	1	30.7
OF	Jayson Werth	1	28.2
OF	Marcell Ozuna	1	18.7
Longshot	Tyler Collins	0	3.0

 

Season Results

Pos	Picks	HR	HR Rate	Avg FD Pts
C	25	9	36.0%	13.34
1B	25	5	20.0%	10.34
2B	25	2	8.0%	10.65
SS	25	4	16.0%	11.31
3B	25	5	20.0%	13.02
OF	78	22	28.2%	14.34
Longshot	18	2	11.1%	9.87
Total	221	49	22.2%	12.50

 

If you have any suggestions or feedback for the article, follow me and hit me up on Twitter @Rotopilot

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