Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (8/19)
Hit my Longshot pick on Wednesday with Tommy Joseph but didn’t fare as well with my core lineup. We’ll look to duplicate Monday’s five home run outburst for Friday night’s big 15-game MLB slate without using a single hitter at Coors Field.
Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.
So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…
C – Evan Gattis (HOU) (FanDuel: $3,000 / DraftKings: $4,300) – Gattis has a .288 ISO against lefties and will face Orioles lefty Wade Miley who has allowed a .354 wOBA and 1.57 HR/9 to righties this season.
1B – Chris Carter (MIL) (FanDuel: $3,400 / DraftKings: $4,100) – Carter has a .351 ISO against lefties this season and will face lefty Wade LeBlanc who has allowed seven homers over his last four starts and 2.48 HR/9 to righties this season.
2B – Jose Altuve (HOU) (FanDuel: $4,000 / DraftKings: $5,500) – Not that you need another reason to play Altuve and his .460 wOBA against a lefty but he has destroyed Miley in his career going 11-for-18 with three doubles and a homer in his career.
SS – Jhonny Peralta (STL) (FanDuel: $3,200 / DraftKings: $4,000) – When Adam Morgan takes the mound it is a good idea to get some exposure to his opponent, especially right-handed hitters. Morgan has allowed 2.38 HR/9 and a .403 wOBA to righties this season.
3B – Pedro Alvarez (BAL) (FanDuel: $3,300 / DraftKings: $4,700) – Alvarez has a .279 ISO against righties this season and will face right-hander Collin McHugh who has had some trouble with the long ball at times this season allowing 1.19 HR/9 to lefties and a lot of hard contact over his last few games.
OF – Nelson Cruz (SEA) (FanDuel: $3,900 / DraftKings: $4,500) – Cruz has hit four homers over his last eight games and will face Brewers’ left-hander Brent Suter making his first big league appearance. If you want to save some money, then look to Cruz’s teammate Franklin Gutierrez.
OF – Khris Davis (OAK) (FanDuel: $3,500 / DraftKings: $4,700) – The Athletics face James Shields tonight so it is a good idea to get some exposure to some A’s bats going against a pitcher that has allowed six homers over his last 4+ innings spanning two starts and has allowed 2.20 HR/9 to righties this season.
OF – Joc Pederson (LAD) (FanDuel: $3,300 / DraftKings: $4,700) – The Dodgers should get into the weak Reds’ bullpen tonight with start Tim Adleman only going an average of five innings per start. Meanwhile, Pederson has hit 17 of his 18 homers against righties with a .272 ISO this season.
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Longshot – Tommy Pham (STL) (FanDuel: $2,400 / DraftKings: $4,400) – Pham hit leadoff and homered off a lefty on Tuesday and could get another start against a home run prone lefty in Adam Morgan tonight. He is a great value on FanDuel at just $2,400.
Wednesday, August 17 – Results
| Pos | Name | HR | FD Pts |
| C | Welington Castillo | DNP | |
| 1B | Paul Goldschmidt | 0 | 27.8 |
| 2B | Chase Utley | 0 | 0.0 |
| SS | Corey Seager | 0 | 18.4 |
| 3B | Maikel Franco | 0 | 9.2 |
| OF | Carlos Beltran | 0 | 0.0 |
| OF | Jay Bruce | 0 | 9.5 |
| OF | Mark Trumbo | 0 | 0.0 |
| Longshot | Tommy Joseph | 1 | 24.7 |
Season Results
| Pos | Picks | HR | HR Rate | Avg FD Pts |
| C | 25 | 9 | 36.0% | 13.34 |
| 1B | 26 | 5 | 19.2% | 11.02 |
| 2B | 26 | 2 | 7.7% | 10.24 |
| SS | 26 | 4 | 15.4% | 11.58 |
| 3B | 26 | 5 | 19.2% | 12.88 |
| OF | 81 | 22 | 27.2% | 13.93 |
| Longshot | 19 | 3 | 15.8% | 10.65 |
| Total | 229 | 50 | 21.8% | 12.46 |
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