Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (8/22)

I was able to put together another big day last Friday with my second five home run day of the week including three players topping 40 FanDuel points. A strong lineup if you were able to pair it up with the right pitcher. Monday’s eight-game slate is a tough one to navigate as there are not a lot of strong home run plays at reduced prices. It could be a low scoring night in DFS.

Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

 

C – Mike Zunino (SEA) (FanDuel: $3,100 / DraftKings: $2,900) – Zunino has homered in two straight games and has eight homers in only 87 plate appearances this season. He will face Yankees’ righty Michael Pineda who has allowed 1.63 HR/9 to righties this season.

1B – Anthony Rizzo (CHC) (FanDuel: $4,200 / DraftKings: $5,300) – For a player that has hit 25 homers this season, I sure haven’t recommended him often this season. However, he is worth a look tonight facing righty Edwin Jackson in San Diego. Rizzo has crushed righties on the road this season with .342 ISO.

2B – Daniel Murphy (WAS) (FanDuel: $4,200 / DraftKings: $5,300) – Murphy has put together a career year this season and has shown no signs of slowing down batting .311 with three homers in August. He will face Orioles righty Dylan Bundy who has allowed home runs in bunches this season including two in his last game.

SS – Francisco Lindor (CLE) (FanDuel: $3,500 / DraftKings: $5,100) – Not many good home run option at shortstop tonight so I’ll go with Lindor who might not go deep but should still put together a solid game against Athletics rookie right-hander Andrew Triggs.

3B – Jake Lamb (ARI) (FanDuel: $3,300 / DraftKings: $4,300) – Lamb has hit 13 of his 24 homers this season at home off right-handed pitchers. Tonight he will be at home facing Braves righty Mike Foltynewicz who has allowed 1.69 HR/9 to left-handed hitters.

OF – Carlos Gonzalez (COL) (FanDuel: $3,700 / DraftKings: $5,200) – Gonzalez will be on the road in another hitter-friendly ballpark in Milwaukee tonight to face Jimmy Nelson who has struggled with the long ball lately allowing seven home runs over his last 28 innings (6 starts).

OF – Mookie Betts (BOS) (FanDuel: $4,100 / DraftKings: $5,200) – Betts has hit multiple home runs in the same game five times this season carrying DFS players to big paydays on those days. While I don’t expect a two-homer performance tonight, Betts does have a .260 ISO against lefties and faces lefty Blake Snell and a Rays’ bullpen that has allowed 1.37 HR/9 (2nd worst) this season.

OF – Seth Smith (SEA) (FanDuel: $2,800 / DraftKings: $3,000) – Smith is a little bit of a Longshot pick as he has not homered since July 6 but he has hit eight homers at home against righties this season with a .199 ISO making him a decent value option to go deep.

Longshot – Orlando Arcia (MIL) (FanDuel: $2,300 / DraftKings: $3,300) – It is definitely a longshot to predict the first major league career home run for someone but that is what I am trying to do with Arcia tonight. He struggled on the Brewers six-game road trip but will return home tonight to face Chad Bettis who has allowed a .353 wOBA and 1.44 HR/9 to righties this season.

 

Friday, August 19 –  Results

Pos	Name	HR	FD Pts
C	Evan Gattis	1	40.1
1B	Chris Carter	1	21.7
2B	Jose Altuve	1	41.7
SS	Jhonny Peralta	0	12.4
3B	Pedro Alvarez	1	18.7
OF	Nelson Cruz	0	15.7
OF	Khris Davis	1	43.8
OF	Joc Pederson	0	6.0
Longshot	Tommy Pham	0	6.0

 

Season Results

Pos	Picks	HR	HR Rate	Avg FD Pts
C	26	10	38.5%	14.37
1B	27	6	22.2%	11.41
2B	27	3	11.1%	11.40
SS	27	4	14.8%	11.61
3B	27	6	22.2%	13.09
OF	84	23	27.4%	14.21
Longshot	20	3	15.0%	10.42
Total	238	55	23.1%	12.85

 

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