Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (8/24)

While the home run predictions have been boom or bust recently that isn’t necessarily a bad thing when you are looking for the high upside needed to win a GPP. Monday was a “bust” day except for the catcher position which unbelievably has recorded the highest success rate this season with a whopping 40.7% home run rate. We’ll see if my catcher and the rest of my HR picks can go “boom” again on tonight’s 10-game slate.

Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

C – Wilson Ramos (WAS) (FanDuel: $3,400 / DraftKings: $4,000) – Ramos is one of three Nationals on my list tonight. He has a .329 ISO against lefties this season and will face Orioles lefty Wade Miley who has allowed 1.64 HR/9 to righties this season.

1B – Mitch Moreland (TEX) (FanDuel: $3,000 / DraftKings: $3,800) – Moreland has hit 16 of his 21 homers against righties this season with a .225 ISO. He will face Reds’ righty Tim Adleman who has allowed three homers in 11 innings to lefties this season with a .412 wOBA.

2B – Brian Dozier (MIN) (FanDuel: $3,900 / DraftKings: $5,400) – Dozier crushes lefties with a .379 ISO this season and will face lefty Matt Boyd on Wednesday who has allowed 1.47 HR/9 to righties this season.

SS – Danny Espinosa (WAS) (FanDuel: $3,300 / DraftKings: $3,800) – Espinosa is the second Nationals right-handed bat to stack against lefty Miley tonight. He has hit seven homers against lefties in 100 at-bats with a .250 ISO.

3B – Maikel Franco (PHI) (FanDuel: $3,100 / DraftKings: $4,800) – Franco brings an eight-game hitting streak with a 36% hard hit rate during that stretch into tonight’s matchup with James Shields who has allowed nine home runs over his last three starts.

OF – J.D. Martinez (DET) (FanDuel: $3,800 / DraftKings: $4,900) – Martinez is on a 13-game hitting streak with four straight multi-hit games and five homers during the streak. He will look to extend his streak against Tyler Duffey who has allowed a .397 wOBA and 2.26 HR/9 to righties this season.

OF – Jayson Werth (WAS) (FanDuel: $3,600 / DraftKings: $4,800) – Werth rounds out the Nationals for today. He has a .359 average with a .291 ISO against southpaws this season and will face home run prone lefty Miley.

OF – Miguel Sano (MIN) (FanDuel: $3,100 / DraftKings: $4,100) – Sano has a reason price for a hitter capable of putting up a two-homer game at any time. He has a .241 ISO against lefties this season and will face Tigers lefty Matt Boyd who struggles giving up homers to righties.

Longshot – Justin Morneau (CHW) (FanDuel: $2,700 / DraftKings: $2,900) – Morneau has hit five homers since joining the White Sox including one last night. Four of his homers have come off righties and he will face Phillies right-hander Jerad Eickhoff who has allowed 1.46 HR/9 to lefties this season.

 

Monday, August 22 –  Results

Pos	Name	HR	FD Pts
C	Mike Zunino	1	25.7
1B	Anthony Rizzo	0	18.2
2B	Daniel Murphy	0	15.5
SS	Francisco Lindor	0	3.0
3B	Jake Lamb	0	0.0
OF	Carlos Gonzalez	0	0.0
OF	Mookie Betts	0	12.2
OF	Seth Smith	0	6.0
Longshot	Orlando Arcia	0	0.0

 

Season Results

Pos	Picks	HR	HR Rate	Avg FD Pts
C	27	11	40.7%	14.79
1B	28	6	21.4%	11.65
2B	28	3	10.7%	11.55
SS	28	4	14.3%	11.31
3B	28	6	21.4%	12.63
OF	87	23	26.4%	13.93
Longshot	21	3	14.3%	9.92
Total	247	56	22.7%	12.71

 

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