Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (8/8)

Sometimes things just don’t go your way. I felt really good about my home run predictions for last Friday, every player seemed to have numerous things going for them to hit a long ball, yet I took a goose egg for the day(I believe my first one). I don’t feel as good about the picks for tonight’s nine-game slate, so they should probably go off for about 10 bombs. I am also going with a complete fade of Coors Field tonight.

Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

C – Evan Gattis (HOU) (FanDuel: $3,300 / DraftKings: $3,600) – Gattis hasn’t homered since July 26 but will get to face Twins’ righty Tyler Duffey who has reverse splits allowing 2.56 HR/9 to righties this season.

1B – Chris Carter (MIL) (FanDuel: $3,500 / DraftKings: $4,000) – Carter has a .311 ISO at home against righties this season and will face Braves’ rightly Rob Whalen making just is second big league start.

2B – Ian Kinsler (DET) (FanDuel: $3,800 / DraftKings: $4,200) – Kinsler has hit more homers on the road than at home this season and will travel to Seattle to face Hisashi Iwakuma tonight. Kinsler has had success against Iwakuma going 12-for-32 with three homers in his career.

SS – Carlos Correa (HOU) (FanDuel: $3,800 / DraftKings: $5,100) – Going with Correa as another right-handed bat against Duffey’s reverse splits. Meanwhile, Correa has some reverse splits of his own hitting 14 of his 15 homers against righties with a .232 ISO this season.

3B – Jedd Gyorko (STL) (FanDuel: $2,600 / DraftKings: $3,000) – Gyorko has performed better against righties this season but the price and matchup against Reds’ lefty Cody Reed and the weak Reds bullpen is too good to pass up. Reed has allowed 2.73 HR/9 to righties this season.

OF – Jose Bautista (TOR) (FanDuel: $3,700 / DraftKings: $3,500) – Bautista is an anti-BvP play tonight. He has only one hit in 19 career at-bats against the Rays’ Jake Odorizzi. However, he has drawn eight walks against only six strikeouts so I foresee the BvP sample to be too small to draw a strong conclusion. Odorizzi has allowed 1.28 HR/9 to righties this season and will get a negative park adjustment pitching in Toronto.

OF – Stephen Piscotty (STL) (FanDuel: $3,500 / DraftKings: $4,400) – Another Cardinals righty to take advantage of the home run prone Reed and weak Reds bullpen. Piscotty has also already hit a homer off Reed earlier this season.

OF – Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) (FanDuel: $3,400 / DraftKings: $3,800) – On the surface, it appears Stanton has a difficult matchup against the Giants’ Johnny Cueto. However, Stanton is coming off back-to-back games with a homer and has had success against Cueto going 5-for-13 with two homers and only two strikeouts in his career.

Longshot – Nick Franklin (TB) (FanDuel: $2,500 / DraftKings: $3,400) – Franklin homered yesterday while batting second for the Rays. He will face R.A. Dickey who has struggled with the long ball, particularly at home against lefties where his allowing 2.67 HR/9 this season.

 

Friday, August 5 –  Results

Pos	Name	HR	FD Pts
C	Evan Gattis	0	12.0
1B	Paul Goldschmidt	0	12.2
2B	Brian Dozier	0	12.5
SS	Marcus Semien	0	6.5
3B	Kris Bryant	0	9.0
OF	Marcell Ozuna	0	0.0
OF	Jose Bautista	0	6.0
OF	Ian Desmond	0	0.0
Longshot	Mark Teixeira	0	18.4

 

Season Results

Pos	Picks	HR	HR Rate	Avg FD Pts
C	21	8	38.1%	14.56
1B	21	5	23.8%	11.30
2B	22	1	4.5%	9.97
SS	22	4	18.2%	11.33
3B	21	4	19.0%	13.08
OF	66	19	28.8%	14.63
Longshot	14	2	14.3%	10.08
Total	187	43	23.0%	12.80

 

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