Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (9/2)
Today will be the last “Swing for the Fences” article of the baseball season. It has been a fun ride this year with some highs including a couple five home run days and some lows where my HR predictions failed to deliver a long ball. Overall, I feel my picks were solid and I followed a good process to arrive at my selections every day. Most positions resulted in about what I would expect with OF, 1B and 3B being three of the highest HR rates, but I am surprised at how well I have done at the Catcher position which was my best position by far with a 35.5% HR rate. So for my last article of the season, I will go with a Catcher for my Longshot. Hopefully, I can go out with a “Bang”!
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Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.
So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…
C – Welington Castillo (ARI) (FanDuel: $3,700 / DraftKings: $5,200) – Castillo has a .298 ISO against lefties and will be facing Rockies lefty Jorge De La Rosa at Coors Field who has allowed 1.93 HR/9 to righties at home this season.
1B – Chris Davis (BAL) (FanDuel: $3,400 / DraftKings: $4,500) – Davis has multiple homer potential tonight at home against righty Chad Green who he has gone 2-for-3 with two homers against in his career.
2B – Matt Carpenter (STL) (FanDuel: $3,900 / DraftKings: $4,500) – Carpenter has 14 of his 17 homers against righties this season and will get a favorable park adjustment playing in Cincinnati tonight against Reds righty Anthony DeSclafani who has allowed a .362 wOBA and 1.65 HR/9 to lefties this season.
SS – Asdrubal Cabrera (NYM) (FanDuel: $2,900 / DraftKings: $4,200) – Cabrera has been hot at the plate over the last week with a .474 average and five homers. He will face Nationals righty A.J. Cole who has allowed four homers in his brief 22 major league innings.
3B – Nolan Arenado (COL) (FanDuel: $4,400 / DraftKings: $5,600) – Arenado has a .337 ISO at home against lefties during his career. He will be at home at Coors Field tonight to face Diamondbacks lefty Robbie Ray who has allowed 1.36 HR/9 to righties this season.
OF – Yasmany Tomas (ARI) (FanDuel: $3,700 / DraftKings: $4,900) – Tomas has a .333 ISO against lefties this season and will face home run prone lefty Jorge De La Rosa at Coors Field tonight.
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OF – Colby Rasmus (HOU) (FanDuel: $3,200 / DraftKings: $3,600) – Rasmus returned from the DL on Tuesday and homered in his first at-bat. He should start again tonight against Rangers righty A.J. Griffin who has allowed a .387 wOBA and 2.40 HR/9 to lefties this season.
OF – Franklin Gutierrez (SEA) (FanDuel: $3,300 / DraftKings: $3,500) – Gutierrez has hit 10 of his 12 homers this season off of lefties with a .230 ISO. He will face Angels lefty Brett Oberholtzer who has allowed a .393 wOBA and 2.11 HR/9 to righties this season.
Longshot – Jason Castro (HOU) (FanDuel: $2,500 / DraftKings: $4,000) – Castro is another left-handed Astros bat that will get to face the home run prone righty A.J. Griffin. Castro has hit 8 of his 9 homers off righties with a .195 ISO this season.
Wednesday, August 31 – Results
| Pos | Name | HR | FD Pts |
| C | Wilson Ramos | 0 | 6.5 |
| 1B | Chris Davis | 0 | 9.0 |
| 2B | Ryan Schimpf | 0 | 0.0 |
| SS | Danny Espinosa | 0 | 3.0 |
| 3B | Jefry Marte | 0 | 9.5 |
| OF | Mike Trout | DNP | |
| OF | Jayson Werth | 1 | 21.7 |
| OF | Rajai Davis | 0 | 18.2 |
| Longshot | Maikel Franco | 0 | 0.0 |
Season Results
| Pos | Picks | HR | HR Rate | Avg FD Pts |
| C | 31 | 11 | 35.5% | 13.38 |
| 1B | 32 | 6 | 18.8% | 11.26 |
| 2B | 32 | 5 | 15.6% | 11.77 |
| SS | 31 | 5 | 16.1% | 11.51 |
| 3B | 32 | 7 | 21.9% | 13.02 |
| OF | 98 | 25 | 25.5% | 13.59 |
| Longshot | 24 | 3 | 12.5% | 9.71 |
| Total | 280 | 62 | 22.1% | 12.46 |
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