The Best Cash Game Picks for Week 11 (DraftKings)

Well, I’m back for this week. I’m doing my best Vinnie Johnson impersonation again. (If you are not old enough to remember Vinnie Johnson, you’ve probably sent me a lousy trade offer on Sleeper.)

About an hour before I started this article, we got The Great Buffalo Blizzard That Wasn’t, as the Bills-Browns game was moved to Detroit. While this opens up players we were basically disregarding in cash game picks, the prices on the most cash-worthy options are high anyway. So on a somewhat tough slate where there’s not a whole lot of value to be had anyway, I don’t think the game moving to a neutral site does much for how I’m going to approach my cash lineups this week.

Quarterback

Last week, it seemed like we’d either pay up for Patrick Mahomes, or use Justin Fields instead, opening up some salary. Fields was the chalk in cash game picks, and I think he will be again this week – but the aforementioned change to the blizzard game makes a pay-up option in Josh Allen viable, too.

Josh Allen ($8500)

There is not much to say here that you don’t already know. He’s an elite quarterback steering a high-powered offense, and he is very productive in our DFS lineups. This week he gets an indoor game environment against a lackluster defense that has been very bad against the run and pass, and was just torched by Miami last week. However, the shift to a new field, locker room, stadium, etc., isn’t without its possible pitfalls, as players thrive on routine. Additionally, Allen was limited at practice Wednesday and Thursday (elbow). This is likely just the team being cautious, but it’s worth noting. The biggest concern I have with Allen, though, is his price. On a slate where Saquon Barkley feels like a virtual lock for me, adding Allen gets pretty restrictive on the rest of your lineup. If I had to choose between the two, I’m leaning toward Barkley right now. I think I’d be more likely to level down from Fields to Dak Prescott than level up to Allen.

Justin Fields ($7600)

Fields has been a cash game cash cow for a few weeks, and I think he’ll be the chalk quarterback again in Week 11. His price has increased, but he’s still a value given his expected floor (and potential ceiling) this week. The Bears-Falcons game opened the week with the highest Vegas over/under on the main slate (50.5), and despite being bet down a point, it remains the highest total at the time I’m writing this. Yes. The Bears and Falcons – two teams that love to run the football. The game total is probably at least partially driven by the bad defenses in this matchup. Either way, Fields is the most game script-proof piece of an indoor game with a high total, facing a Falcons defense that can be passed (and run) on and that doesn’t generate much pass rush. Fields’ rushing ability has been on full display recently, and the team has increasingly employed designed runs for him during that stretch. He’s also thrown for seven touchdowns over the last three games. Right now, I’m pretty much locked into Fields in cash this week.

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Honorable Mentions: Dak Prescott ($6600) in a possible shootout; Daniel Jones ($5700) as your value option in a good matchup (only if Wan’Dale Robinson plays)

Running Back

Last week, I noted that the often-preferred three-RB build was not quite a slam dunk, and that remains true with this week’s cash game picks. Prices are rising for several players, and many value options are not attractive for one reason or another. It’s especially true if you want to play my favorite choice this week.

Saquon Barkley ($8900)

I said Saquon was in a smash spot last week (and that his 3X of 25.8 DK points was plausible), and he smashed (to the tune of 26 points). He is once again in an excellent position to show out. The Lions’ defense has shown flashes of improvement, but it is still bad, and the Bears ran all over them last week (258 yards). Daniel Jones and Saquon do not equal Fields + David Montgomery + Khalil Herbert, but they will produce on the ground in this game.

DFS analyst Al Zeidenfeld talks about “five box running backs” and how you want as many RBs that check as many boxes as possible. The five boxes are: 1. home 2. favorite 3. involved in the passing game 4. projected for 20+ touches 5. gets work inside the 5-yard line. Barkley checks all those boxes this week. I’m playing him with confidence.

The lack of value on the slate is most true for RB, so you can look at it two ways: save the money at RB1 and be better able to fit in three lower-priced RBs (say, Joe Mixon, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Dameon Pierce), or might as well spend up for the best bet and take advantage of the better value at WR. I’m going with the latter. Playing Fields with Saquon will make it challenging to use anyone else from Mixon ($7400) through Pierce/Tony Pollard ($6500) without swallowing something elsewhere you don’t love, but it’s not impossible.

Joe Mixon ($7400)

No, we are not chasing five touchdowns. We’re chasing volume and floor, which is essential for cash game picks. I could argue Mixon is a “four box-er” this week (it’s a road game), and he is coming off a bye. He is not very efficient with his touches, but we want that volume. Mixon was being targeted well even before Ja’Marr Chase got injured, and feeding him on the ground (and with short passes) might be a good way to protect the Bengals’ offensive line – and Joe Burrow – from the Steelers’ pass rush. It’s not a great matchup for Mixon, but it’s not a bad one. On a slate with relatively few RB options you can be cash-confident in, plugging in Mixon if you pay up for Allen or want to shave $1500 off of Barkley (and skip past Alvin Kamara and Josh Jacobs at similar prices but in lower-scoring games) is perfectly fine.

Rhamondre Stevenson ($6700)/Dameon Pierce ($6500)

Both of these RBs are mid-range price options with volume if you need them, but neither game environment is very good. They can help you get to a three-RB build as described above if that’s the route you want to go this week.

Stevenson is only $200 more and is attractive because he participates in the passing game – he’s getting targets. You could argue he has the higher ceiling of the two. However, his game is currently tied for the lowest over/under on the main slate at only 38.5 points (team implied total of 21 points), so temper expectations.

Given his volume even when the Texans are trailing and his production even on a bad offense, Pierce’s price tag is still a value. The matchup isn’t great, but the points-per-dollar factor will probably still be pretty good. Tony Pollard is another good option at the same price, but I don’t mess with game-time decisions (Ezekiel Elliott, potentially), especially in the late window.

David Montgomery ($6100)

As I discussed earlier, the Bears-Falcons game has a surprisingly high game total, and Atlanta’s defense is exploitable via the run. Montgomery is an affordable volume play with Khalil Herbert on IR. If you’re spending up on a quarterback priced higher than Fields, Monty makes sense as a piece of a high total game (with a decent team implied total of 23.3 points) in a plus matchup. He’s also not a complete zero as a receiving back if needed.

Honorable Mentions: Tony Pollard ($6500) if Zeke is out; Brian Robinson ($5300) to cheaply pick on the Texans rush defense, but no PPR upside

Wide Receiver

The slate isn’t great overall, but there is more value here than at running back, as well as some elite options.

Justin Jefferson ($9100) and Stefon Diggs ($8300) are, of course, elite cash game picks and have good matchups and/or game environments, but the way I’m building this week, I’m likely out on them at their price. I’m more likely to use them in GPP game stacks in which I can be comfortable with their rostership percentage.

CeeDee Lamb ($7500)

With Dak back (that rhymes), the Dallas offense is doing better and, importantly for Lamb, passing more. I like this game to hit its Vegas total more than the Bears-Falcons game. We’ve got a dome, two offenses that want to pass, and a close line (Dallas -1.5 as I write this), which could suggest a lot of back and forth. Lamb’s target share is outstanding, and Minnesota is a “pass funnel” defense with a subpar secondary. The conditions are there to use Lamb as a cheaper way to get a potentially huge game than with Jefferson or Diggs. I want to fit him into my cash lineup, even with Saquon there.

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Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7200)

It seems ARSB is a fixture in cash discussions this season, with good reason. His target totals the season in the games for which he was fully healthy are: 12, 12, 9, 10, and 9 [with a not-too-shabby 6 in his first game back after the ankle injury], and in most of those games, he’s produced well with those targets. St. Brown is unquestionably the go-to receiver for Jared Goff. Goff is not as good on the road as he is at home, but the Lions will likely have a negative game script which will probably mean a big target day for St. Brown. The Giants have been good overall versus slot receivers this season, but Lamb, Christian Kirk, and Randall Cobb all had good games against the Giants this season. If I need to shave off a few hundred dollars and move from Lamb to ARSB, I’d be fine with it, especially because I can get an affordable piece of Dallas in TE Dalton Schultz.

Terry McLaurin ($5900)

You may be familiar with the song “I Only Have Eyes For You.” (It’s actually one of my favorites.) That’s what comes to mind when I think about how Taylor Heinecke has targeted McLaurin since taking over for the injured Carson Wentz. At this price, then, we have a very good value play in a very good matchup against Houston. The Texans’ defense is putrid against the run, so we may see Washington lean that way more, but given Heinecke’s unconditional devotion to his sweetheart McLaurin, there will be enough left over for him to give us good points-per-dollar return. Given that, I’m increasingly considering McLaurin a priority among cash game picks this week.

Parris Campbell ($4300)

Elite quarterbacks elevate the players around them. Once in a while, so does Matt Ryan. In the three games with Ryan, Campbell’s PPR totals were 18.1, 23, and 20.6. Ryan loves to target Campbell, and he should see solid targets again this week in a negative game script, especially if the newly added Ndamukong Suh can shore up the Eagles’ run defense with rookie Jordan Davis out. The Colts’ team-implied total is low (18.8), but the floor Campbell provides at this price is a perfect fit for cash lineups. Philadelphia does well overall against opposing WRs, but less so specifically against slot receivers. It might be odd to call a $4300 player with a low team-implied total facing a good defense a lock. Still, I probably see Campbell that way, given what he can open up elsewhere, or specifically as a value play necessitated by using Barkley and a $7K receiver.

Honorable Mentions: Tee Higgins ($7100) still a value with Chase out; Courtland Sutton ($6000) if Jeudy is out; Ben Skowronek ($3900) as a volume punt with Cooper Kupp out

Tight End

Mark “He’s Really Just An Underpriced WR1” Andrews (shoulder, knee), the one real pivot off our usual pay down at TE strategy, is very possibly out this week. At the same time, the true punt options aren’t very attractive cash game picks. Still, there are some relative value options to use.

Dalton Schultz ($4300)

I already discussed why I like this game to produce a lot of DK points: dome, good passing offenses, good pace and likely back and forth, and, specifically for Schultz, Dallas is passing more and moving the ball better since Dak Prescott returned from injury. In those three games reunited with Dak, his snaps and route participation have gone up, and his stat lines were 5-5-49, 7-6-74, and 8-6-54-1. The Vikings have been a team we love to pick on with our TEs. In 2022 they are not bottom of the barrel, ranking 23rd against the position in DK PPG (i.e., given up the 10th most PPG). However, they haven’t faced many outstanding ones, and since the Vikings are generally bad against the pass, opponents’ WRs have thrived enough against them (3rd most DK PPG allowed), so perhaps there was less need to use the TEs. Still, they have allowed some good TE games this season. While TJ Hockenson was kept quiet in a game where St. Brown and Josh Reynolds combined for 12 catches and 169 yards, Dallas Goedert posted a 5-82 line, Mike Gesiscki’s was 6-69, Zach Ertz tuned in a 4-34-1 day, and Knox put up 4-57 in last week’s thriller. Even Adam Trautman and Juwan Johnson combined for 6-70 against Minnesota. Schultz is looking like a possible priority TE in cash this week.

David Njoku ($3900) [Harrison Bryant ($3100)]

Njoku (ankle) logged a limited practice session on Thursday, so he might play. You’ll have to monitor his status heading into Sunday. We’ve seen Njoku enjoy somewhat of a breakout season this year, and the game moving to Detroit opens up his availability in a dome game with what should be a negative game script. It’s not a good matchup, though. The Bills’ defense is pretty good all around, including ranking 8th in DK points allowed per game to TEs, and 3rd in red zone DK PPG against the position. There is still a path to volume, and we know Njoku can produce a big play or two.

If Njoku is out, pivoting to backup Harrison Bryant for $800 less gets you pretty much in punt range. You could do worse in his price range; even a 3 for 35 performance is a 2.1X return. If he somehow makes it into the end zone, that’s some nice gravy to the tune of 4X.

Personally, I don’t think I’ll use a Browns TE this week, but escaping the blizzard puts them back in the player pool.

Greg Dulcich ($3800)

You can refer to last week’s cash game picks article to see all the reasons I have that Big D Energy. I still have it after a disappointing showing in Week 10. While neither the Vegas game total (41.50 nor the team implied total (22) are exciting, Dulcich has elite rout participation and a solid target share. This week, we add the good possibility Jeudy is out and a mile-high home game against a Raiders defense that loves to give up big performances to quarterbacks. For an added treat, they give up the 5th most DK PPG and 4th most red zone DK PPG to tight ends. While I’m doing what I can to squeeze in Schultz, I think we see an excellent bounce-back week for Dulcich.

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Honorable Mentions: T.J. Hockenson ($5300) as the higher-priced TE play in a game I love; Foster Moreau ($3700) with a decent floor and price; Jack Stoll ($2500) as a true minimum-price punt with a good team total and matchup

DST

Ah, saving the best for last. We love to punt at DST most often in our cash game picks, and I think we have an actual good punt-level option this week, but I will throw in another team for you to consider

Saints ($3000)

The Saints’ opponent this week is the LA Rams, and the game has the second-lowest Vegas over/under (39.5). What we get with the Rams: bad offense, bad offensive line, low team implied total (18), road game, and no Cooper Kupp. If you can afford it, New Orleans is a solid choice.

Steelers ($2300)

I’m a little surprised Pittsburgh is the second-lowest-priced DST this week, but I’m glad. The Steelers may give up points this week, but even the Bengals’ quality offense has a team-implied total of only 23.3. Either way, what I like about this DST choice this week is the home game environment and the matchup against a bad offensive line, especially with T.J. Watt back in the fold. And, of course, as everyone is reminding you this week, the Steelers posted seven sacks and four interceptions against Joe Burrow in Week 1. Additionally, they held Cincinnati to 20 points, including overtime, and did so while absorbing a 27-82 (rushing) and 7-63 (receiving) day from Mixon and a 10-129-1 line from Chase, who is out this week. And all this for the low, low price of $2300? Sign me up. This looks like my cash lock DST.

Honorable Mentions: Jets ($2800) I don’t hate; Texans ($2400) vs. a bad o-line and iffy QB

So that concludes this week’s Dan Quisenberry impersonation. (If you are not old enough to remember Vinnie Johnson, you’ve probably sent me a lousy trade offer on Sleeper.) I hope these cash game picks can be profitable for you. And remember – if they are not, I’m only the backup.

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