The Best DraftKings NFL DFS Advice Week 9 (11/5/23)
Welcome back to my weekly NFL DFS article! This is where I preview and highlight some of my favorite plays each week for the NFL main slate. Last week, I mentioned Brock Purdy and Sam Howell as good pivots after the news broke that Sam Darnold would not be starting. Howell ended up as the quarterback you likely needed to win your GPP contest and Purdy had a great week (for DFS) too. I had a couple of good Purdy double stack lineups, but he didn’t throw enough touchdowns for the double stack to be optimal. With that being said, let’s look ahead to week 9!
Quarterbacks
Dak Prescott ($6,500) @ PHI
Embed from Getty ImagesThis slate is chock-full of backup QBs, making many games quite unappealing. The highest total on the slate is PHI-DAL at 47, and that’s the game much of the field will be targeting. I anticipate the field will gravitate more toward Hurts lineups, so I like Dak here. We’ve seen Dak flash his ceiling in the Cowboys’ last two games, posting 24.88 DraftKings points in Week 6 and 32.06 points last week. So, I really like Dak + CeeDee + a third Dallas pass catcher with an A.J. Brown bringback.
Bryce Young ($5,100) vs. IND
On a normal slate, I would rarely consider Bryce Young, but considering the slate and his price, Young is a great play this week. We know who his #1 pass catcher is (Adam Thielen $7,500) and the Colts have given up over 30 points in each of their last three games. This should be a friendly game environment for both sides to push each other. Young hasn’t shown us a big ceiling yet, but I can see this matchup being a breakout game for him. I like a Young-Thielen single stack with either Jonathan Taylor or Josh Downs on the other side.
Runningbacks
Jonathan Taylor ($6,400) @ CAR
At first glance, it may seem as though Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss are still splitting the workload in Indy pretty evenly. But a closer look reveals Taylor played 61% of snaps to Moss’s 39%. That is compared to week 7 where it was a 51-49 split in favor of Moss. Expect the trend from last week to continue because the Colts didn’t pay JT to be in a timeshare. The Panthers are giving up the 8th-most rushing yards this season and that makes Taylor way too cheap given his increasing workload.
Alvin Kamara ($8,100) vs. CHI
This slate is particularly unusual. We have a plethora of starting QBs that are in the low $5k-$4k range and the most expensive player on the slate is A.J. Brown at $8,600. That means salary should be easier to find for the most expensive players, so Kamara profiles as a smash even as the most expensive RB on the slate. While Kamara’s elite usage has made him matchup-proof in recent weeks, the fact he is playing Chicago makes his profile this week even juicier. Facing a defense giving up the 6th most fantasy points to the position, Kamara should smash in this spot.
Wide Receivers
Embed from Getty ImagesCeeDee Lamb ($8,200) @ PHI
Going along with my Dak Prescott pick, I am targeting his number 1 pass catcher here. We saw CeeDee explode last week versus the Rams with 12 catches for 158 yards and 2 touchdowns. With a limited number of games that project well on this slate, I like riding Lamb’s momentum in the best game this week. He can can make for a good pivot off A.J. Brown or be played in a game stack with him.
Zay Flowers ($5,700) vs. SEA
While it’s been a struggle for Flowers the past few weeks production-wise, he has maintained a healthy target share. He has out-targeted Mark Andrews over the last four weeks. As you’ll see I like both Flowers and Andrews as this is one of the more attractive games on the slate. This game is tied for the second-highest total on the slate at 44, and that makes Zay Flowers a phenomenal play at $5,700.
Tight Ends
Embed from Getty ImagesMark Andrews ($6,800) vs. SEA
Staying in the same offense as Flowers with my first TE pick this week, we have Mark Andrews. I’m not scared off by the price discrepancy between Andrews and the rest of the tight ends. Despite coming in $1,600 more than the next tight end, the lack of expensive plays on this slate should make Andrews more accessible than a typical week. I think Andrews has a great chance at separating himself sizably from the pack at the position, which is what he’ll need to land in winning lineups.
Jake Ferguson ($4,000) @ PHI
Continuing with my Cowboys love this week, we have Jake Ferguson. I’m not a huge fan of the price here but given the game environment it makes sense. Though his target numbers have been relatively low, Ferguson’s routes run per game has increased each week since week 3 up to 85% last week. For reference, his route share in week 3 was 62%. Ferguson’s touchdown opportunity should be among the highest on the slate at his position, and for that reason I’ll be playing him this week.
Defenses
New York Giants ($2,300) @ LV
The Giants are way too cheap on this slate. With Aidan O’Connell getting the start for Las Vegas, the Giants defense will likely be highly owned. But we have seen chalk defenses smash before and when they do, they are still the defense you need to win a GPP, regardless of ownership. So, for price relief and pure value, I will have them in a lot of my lineups.
Green Bay Packers ($2,800) vs. LAR
Here I’m going with another defense facing a backup. There will be a number of defense in play due to this. The Packers will potentially face Brett Rypien this week should Stafford be ruled out. That makes for a fantastic matchup for this defense at a fantastic price.
Thank you for reading! I hope you all have success in your contests this week and win some money! Here’s a link to my picks from last week for anyone interested.
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