The Best Over/Under Bets for Week 5 in the NFL

We are now a day away from another football Sunday! Which means we will soon be sitting down in front of our TV’s in full tilt mode, sweating that last minute field goal or the turnover we need to cash a bet. I mean seriously, is there anything better? Even when I end up on the wrong side of one of my bets, it’s the sweat and adrenaline for me. The feeling of excitement you get pleading for that one player you need to get a first down or the last leg of your parlay getting the ball in a two minute drill with the chance to not only win the game, but line your pockets in doing so. Man, I’m getting amped up just writing this! But enough small talk, let’s go ahead and jump in to my favorite totals of the week, along with some prop bets and a underdog parlay I’ll be taking a shot on.

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Miami Dolphins 1-3 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-1

O/U 47.5

While Tampa Bay clearly had a down week offensively against the New England Patriots, I’m chalking it up to the down pour of rain and Bill Belichick. Let’s not forget he coached Tom Brady his entire career before the duo parted ways last season, so we knew Bill was going to come in with an air tight defensive scheme, which he did. While Brian Flores is from the Bill Belichick coaching tree, I don’t see him and the Miami Dolphins defense having anywhere near the success the Patriots did against Tampa.

The Dolphins are giving up 27.3 points per game and are 25th in the League in yards allowed. They also rarely get pressure on the quarterback ranking 27th in sacks. We know what Brady will do to a team when he’s able to stand in a clean pocket under little to no pressure, he will absolutely dissect them. Tom Brady and the Bucs should have no problems putting up points in bunches against this weak Miami pass rush.

With that being said, Tampa Bay’s secondary has been devastated with the injury bug. They currently have 4 of their top cornerbacks dealing with injuries. Them turning to a 33-year old Richard Sherman who allowed Patriots receivers last week to catch nine-out-of-nine targets should tell you all you need to know about the current state of this Bucs secondary.

We know Miami won’t dare work their ground game against the stout run defense of Tampa Bay so their only hope is to attack the glaring weakness of their defense through the air. Teams so far this year against Tampa Bay are passing 73% of the time overall and 71% of the time on early downs. I expect Jacoby Brissett and Brian Flores to deploy a pass-heavy game plan as well, in attempt to keep pace with the Buccaneers and their Tom Brady led offense, this one has all the fixings for a high scoring affair.

My Pick: Over 47.5

Denver Broncos 3-1 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 1-3

O/U 40

Even though Big Ben hasn’t officially retired yet, his body has. He just isn’t the same player we have grown accustomed to watching on Sunday’s and neither is this Steelers’ offense as a whole. They aren’t the same high powered unit, that’s for sure. They have only scored 67 points in total through the first four games in 2021. To put in context just how underwhelming it has been for the Steelers offense, that’s tied with the Texans and less than the Jaguars, Giants and Lions. They used to be seemingly unstoppable at home in recent years but so far have only put up 27 points at Heinz Field. I don’t think this is the week Pittsburgh rights the ship going up against a top 3 defense in the Denver Broncos who rank 2nd in points allowed and touchdowns allowed, as well as ranking inside the top 5 in all major defensive categories.

As good as the Broncos are defensively, they aren’t exactly an offense that any defense should fear. Teddy Bridgewater has the chance to suit up but whether it’s him or Drew Lock behind center I still don’t expect a lot of points from this Bronco’s offense. As bad as the Steelers have been on offense they do field a respectable defensive unit.

Neither of these teams are offensive juggernauts but both will be running out good defenses on Sunday and it’s evident that this one sets up to be a low-scoring defensive slugfest. With a total of only 40 points, it’s the second lowest total of Week 5 but the Under not only is backed by statistics, anyone who has watched these teams play, know they pass the eye test as well.

The Under has hit in all 8 games of the Steelers and Broncos combined games this year and I’m going to continue to back it this week as well.

My Pick: Under 40

Chicago Bears 2-2 @ Las Vegas Raiders 3-1

O/U 44.5

Before last weeks dud on Monday Night Football, Derek Carr and the Raiders offense had been on absolute fire! The Raiders were averaging 30 points a game and Carr had 3 straight 400 yard games. I’m not looking to fade a consistent scoring offense like that off of one down game. They still rank in the top half of the league in terms of passing DVOA and net yards per drive. John Gruden’s offense is geared towards scheming players open and Derek Carr does an excellent job making the right read which he should have plenty of time to do against the underwhelming pass rush of the Chicago Bears (19th in pressure rate). Vegas should be able to find continued success and get back to their 30 point per game average against the Bears defense who rank 10th in pass defense DVOA.

On the other side of the ball, we saw Justin Fields find some success in just his second game as an NFL quarterback after a rough first outing. Fields offered a nice spark to this Bears offense last week leading them to a season high in points and yardage. Fields has a big arm and can easily threaten this Raiders depleted secondary which will open up running lanes for the rookie to take off and create big gains with his legs as well. Darnell Mooney is a downfield specialist and should thrive in this one leaving things open underneath for Allen Robinson to have a big game too.

At a pretty low total and the expectation the Raiders will get back to their offensive tear, we will only need a couple scores out of Justin Fields and company, a feat I think he can accomplish with ease. Take advantage of the gift Vegas is giving us based off the Raiders lack luster performance last week at So-Fi Stadium, the Over is the play.

My Pick: Over 44.5

Under Dog Moneyline Parlay

New York Jets +125

Buffalo Bills +130

Philadelphia Eagles +140

Cincinnati Bengals +125

$100.00 Bet to Win $2,694.50 to Payout $2,794.50

Prop Bets

Kareem Hunt Over 45.5 rushing yards (-115)

Hunt has turned it on as of late and is definitely getting more opportunity because of his on the field production. He’s producing in a big way for the Browns, he’s currently on pace for 182.75 rush attempts, 994.5 rushing yards and 12.75 rushing touchdowns while being on pace to add 51 receptions and 514.25 yards through the air. He gets a LA Chargers team this week that has given up 5.3 yards per carry (third highest in the NFL) and has plenty more evidence against them proving they can be had on the ground. Kareem Hunt will continue to get ramped up opportunities in this one and go over this rushing total with ease.

Make a selection below. Enter your #. And if you’re right… Win free stuff!

Kyle Pitts Over 5.5 Receptions (+100)

With the news of Calvin Ridley not making the trip across the pond due to personal reasons the Kyle Pitts breakout game we all have been waiting for is coming. He gets a bad Jets defense and should be in store for one of if not the largest workloads at his position this week. Matt Ryan will look top target Pitts early and often, the rookie should finish with around 8 receptions and a touchdown or two.

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