The Better than a “Sit/Start” Article, Sit/Start Article Week 5

All right, my lovelies, it is time to get serious. Take no prisoners: fish or cut bait. Drop the dead weight that is weighing our fantasy teams down. It doesn’t matter if they were third-round, fifth-round, or just a big-name favorite. If they aren’t doing it for you, “go on dust your shoulders off, keep it moving…just walk your fine ass out of the door,” metaphorically speaking.

It is Week5 and we have an idea of who is excelling and failing. There are some serious aberrations, and some players are simply of the matchup variety.

Meanwhile, some studs are being studly regardless of the matchup or the weather. And some studs are being bogged down by the shitstorm that is their offense. But this week, those who do not have the studly have a chance to find those sweet…sweet matchups that will make our fantasy week worthwhile.

Let’sLet’s do this:

TOP FIVE FANTASY QUARTERBACKS WEEK 4

1. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions v Seattle Seahawks               34.22 fantasy points
2. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions           31.70 fantasy points
3. Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders26.48 fantasy points
4. Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers v Kansas City Chiefs 25.40 fantasy points
5. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens                24.52 fantasy points

QUARTERBACKS

Before we get started, I just want to say this, someone broke Matthew Stafford, and I would like them to fix him immediately. Although I have dropped him in all my leagues for all of the superstitious ones, he is most certainly going to ball out this week. You are welcome. (PSA: This is in no way an endorsement for you to start Stafford this week. In addition to his shitty play, his matchup is horrendous!)

Now let’s begin.

MUST START

Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans @ Washington, o/u 43. Tennessee -2.5

I say this not because of the overabundance of confidence in Tannehill but a complete lack of faith in Washington’sWashington’s defense. To date, Washington has allowed 10 passing touchdowns and one interception to opposing quarterbacks. The secondary is 28^th in dropback EPA ( EPA= expected points added, you know, a nerd analysis to measure how well a team performs relative to expectation) allowed. They have also allowed an average of 24.5 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Let’s say Washington is where opposing quarterbacks go for their “feel good” moment.

Tannehill isn’t setting your fantasy team ablaze, but he isn’t killing them. He has a completion percentage of 71.3%. He has 11 red zone attempts and a completion percentage of 81.8% in the red zone.

SHOULD START

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens, o/u 48, Baltimore -3

Who is joining me back on the Burrow train heading toward fantasy glory? Come on. There is plenty of room for one or two more of y’ll.

Burrow has put up more than 20 fantasy points in the last two weeks. Last week against Miami, he had two touchdowns and 287 passing yards. The week before, against the New York Jets, he had three touchdowns and 275 yards.

And I know what you are thinking, but Baltimore’s defense is not the immovable force it once was. They have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks (23.15), including the fifth-most passing touchdowns (eight) and the most passing yards (315.3).

I would tell you how Burrow has owned Baltimore (last season, seven touchdowns and 941 yards in two meetings), but I won’t because I am a what have you done for me lately kinda gal.

MEH

Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs, o/u 51, Kansas City -7

So, statistically speaking, this should be a mini-slam dunk for Carr. Monday Night Game, implied team score 18.5, Davante Adams running routes, and the Kansas City defense, giving up an average of 26.2 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. They have also allowed 10 touchdowns with only one interception.

But Carr has played in Kansas City eight times and only has one game with more than 12 fantasy points. And last week against the Denver Broncos, he threw for only 188 yards with zero passing touchdowns.

But then again, Adams and three out of four of the last quarterbacks have put up at least 26 fantasy points against Kansas City.

LONG SHOT

Zach Wilson, New York Jets v Miami Dolphins, o/u 46, Miami -3

First, am I the only one surprised that Miami is only favored by a field goal? Sure, Wilson and the Jets beat by beloved Pittsburgh Steelers last week. But if we are honest, the Steelers are a shell of what they used to be, and even then, Wilson’s stat line wasn’t setting your fantasy hearts a flame (unless you’re a MILF).

Wilson finished the game 18-of-36 for 252 passing yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. He had two carries for 15 yards, and he was sacked once. Meh.

But Miami is giving up the second most fantasy points to the quarterback position (28). So far this season, they have allowed 1218 passing yards and eight touchdowns to one interception. Last week Burrow passed for 287 yards and two touchdowns against them (oh, did I mention that already).

With an implied team total of 20 points (I was told there wouldn’t be math), Wilson should get a touchdown or two. But you could do worse if you are looking for a Tua Tagovailoa or Mac Jones replacement. Is this maybe a better DFS play?

Wilson may be dealing with an ankle injury. Stay tuned.

TOP FIVE FANTASY RUNNING BACKS WEEK 4-PPR

1. Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans    34.90 fantasy pts
2. Josh Jacobs, LVR v Denver Broncos                                           34.50 fantasy pts
3. Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles v Jacksonville Jags        29.60 fantasy pts
4. Rashaad Penny, Seattle Seahawks v Detroit Lions                28.70 fantasy pts
5. Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans v LAC                                   25.90 fantasy pts

RUNNING BACKS

Jonathan Taylor is out. Javonte Williams is out for the season. D’Andre Swift may or may not play before the Detroit Lions’ bye week, and Alvin Kamara was a late…late scratch last week. How are you doing?

MUST START

Damien Harris, New England Patriots v Detroit Lions, o/u 45.5, New England -3

This could just as easily be Rhamondre Stevenson because the New England Patriots do not care one bit about your fantasy teams. And if you shun my advice and play Stevenson, just know I ain’t mad at ya.

Detroit gives the second most fantasy points to the running back position (24.5). They have allowed four rushing touchdowns, 467 rushing yards, and 23 receptions for 120 receiving yards to the position for the season.

And we all remember what Rashaad Penny did to them last week. His RB4 was on the back of 151 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 17 carries.

So, pick your poison here. New England runs the ball on 47.30% of their offensive plays (eighth), and they attempt an average of 28.5 rushing plays a game (ninth).

Stevenson is on the field for a larger snap count (51.81% to 40.16%), but Harris has scored a touchdown in the last three games. So, I picked Harris.

SHOULD START

James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars v Houston Texans, o/u 44, Jacksonville -7

I know Robinson was a major disappointment last week. He averaged 3.6 yards per carry, finished with 29 yards, and did not get into the end zone. But that was against a very stout Philadelphia Eagles defense in less-than-ideal weather.

This week Robinson (and his fantasy managers) get a gift of a lifetime. He plays against the team that gives the most fantasy points to the running back position (25.5 average).

Last week Austin Ekeler ran to the RB1 (PPR formats) against Houston. Houston has allowed running backs to score five times on the ground and once through the air. That bodes well for Robinson, who has a 56% snap share, 57.9% opportunity share, and 14 red zone touches.

MEH

I have to admit this is probably more about me than CEH. And I have to get over it. CEH is currently RB4 ( I know, right!!!). In four games, he has eclipsed 100 yards once (finished with 15.8 fantasy points) and has multiple touchdowns twice (finished with 22.4 fantasy points both times)! Last week he ran for 92 yards against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers!!! WTF is going on?

He has been on the field for 35.8%, 41.8%, 45.0%, and 55.8% snap share, respectively.

And now, this week, he gets the Las Vegas Raiders. The Raiders are giving up an average of 15.5 fantasy points to the running back position. They have allowed two rushing touchdowns and one receiving touchdown to the position. Last week they allowed Russell Wilson to score a rushing touchdown. It’s a mad, mad world.

LONG SHOT

Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers v San Francisco 49ers, o/u 39, 49ers -6.5

A person on Twitter (Rita Oak @ritaoak_art) has vowed to draw Jimmy G every day until he gets traded. It is day 245. I admire the persistence, and the drawings are pretty great.

I just bring this up because I feel I will put CMC on the “long shot. Oh, dear god, please trade him or get him a better coach, offensive coordinator, and quarterback” list until this happens.

Don’t play him against the 49ers this week. You will only end up with (more) heartbreak.

TOP FIVE FANTASY WIDE RECEIVERS’RECEIVERS’ WEEK 4-PPR

1. Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings v New Orleans Saints 31.0 fantasy pts
2. Mike Evans, TBB v KCC                                                                 30.3 fantasy pts
3. Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers    26.2 fantasy pts
4. Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins @ Cincinnati Bengals               25.9 fantasy pts
5. Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals v Miami Dolphins                25.4 fantasy pts

WIDE RECEIVERS

MUST START

Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens, o/u 38.5, Baltimore -3.5

If you are getting aboard the Burrow train to fantasy glory, you might as well hop on this one too. Chase isn’t putting up the eye-popping number he did last year (Tee Higgins has currently taken over that role), but you can’t keep a good man down.

Baltimore is currently giving up the most fantasy points to the wide receiver position (31.2). They have allowed six receiving touchdowns and 68 receptions on 108 targets. Per Razzball’s slot v wide, Baltimore allows 21 points per game to the slot and 28.7 out wide. Chase currently takes 15.4% of his snaps in the slot and Higgins 12.9% of slot snaps.