The Better Than A “Sit/Start Article,” Sit/Start Article Week 7

It is Week7, also known as Bye Week Apocalypse. The following teams will be unavailable for their services this week: Buffalo Bills, Los Angeles Rams, Minnesota Vikings, and the Philadelphia Eagles. Yep, that means, among others, no Josh Allen, Cooper Kupp, Justin Jefferson, or Jalen Hurts. (Insert mildly amusing refrain about how much it hurts here).

Should we talk about last week? Or is it better to say less unsaid? I agree it is better left unspoken.

The players in the top five in fantasy for their positions last week are here. Remember, it is PPR scoring (cause is there any other way to play). And yes, I feel your pain that your top scorer is unavailable to you this week. But read on, and maybe we can work something out.

QUARTERBACK TOP 5 WEEK 6

1. JOE BURROW, CINCINNATI, 32.50 FANTASY POINTS
2. MATT RYAN, INDIANAPOLIS COLTS, 27.16 FANTASY POINTS
3. JOSH ALLEN, BUFFALO BILLS (BYE WEEK), 26.36 FANTASY POINTS
4. TREVOR LAWRENCE, JACKSONVILLE JAGS, 24.90 FANTASY POINTS
5. MARCUS MARIOTA, ATLANTA FALCONS, 24.16 FANTASY POINTS

Okay, so the good news is that four of the five top quarterbacks from last week are playing this week. The bad news is that this may actually be a zombie apocalypse, flesh-eating your soul, not as good-looking as Jeffery Dean Morgan’s zombie apocalypse.

What are the chances that Mariota or Lawrence will make this list next week? Well, I am glad you asked.

QUARTERBACKS

MUST START

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins v Pittsburgh Steelers

Welcome, back, Tagovailoa. (It is a little weird that the week Tua Tagovailoa returns, his brother Taulia Tagovailoa reinjured his MCL, and it is a game-time decision?)

There are so many reasons to be happy for Tagovailoa’s return. And not just from a medical standpoint.

For fantasy purposes, his most special gift is playing the Steelers. The Steelers are allowing 7.5 yards per attempt (25^th), a 4.8% touchdown rate and are giving up the sixth-most fantasy points to the quarterback position (21.2) unless your name is Tom Brady, that is.

His name isn’t, of course, and before he left with his concussion(s), he had seven touchdowns and two interceptions. This includes a 469-yard passing game against the Baltimore Ravens.

In Tua, we trust.

SHOULD START

Dax Prescott, Dallas Cowboys v Detroit Lions

And another quarterback who will be making his return in an advantageous matchup.

The Philadelphia Eagles managed to quiet all that nonsense about Cooper Rush replacing Prescott… that’s crazy talk. Hold his beer.

The Lions are giving up 7.9 yards per passing attempt (29^th), a 65.9% completion rate (21^st), and a 4.7% touchdown rate (25^th).

The Lions are giving up the second-most fantasy points (22.5) to the quarterback position.

MEH

Aaron Rodger, Green Bay Packers @ Washington

Washington franchise is currently the poster child for dysfunction. Can the players and coaches rise above it? Do we care about this never-ending long-standing, let’s give the rich white man one more chance saga? (whew, I feel better)

What matters is this a situation where Rodgers should smash.

Washington has given up 19.1 fantasy points to the quarterback position, the eighth most in the league. They are also giving up a league-high 13.3 yards per completion and a 6.3% touchdown rate (31^st in the league). So smash, right?

The trepidation is that Rodgers, when under pressure, has his completion rate drop -23.5% and loses -1.3 yards per attempt. (Thank you, Sharp Analysis)

Washington’s defense happens to be second in the NFL in pressure rate (40.7%) and leads the league in the rate of dropback with a hit on the quarterback (24%).

So, will our plucky ayahuasca-taking, right-thumb-injured dating machine overcome? Meh.

LONGSHOT

Jared Goff, Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys

The Lions are coming off their bye week. Before the bye week, they were eighth in plays per game (66.6, you noticed the number right), and their games averaged a league-high 62 combined points. Then came the New England Patriots. Perhaps you have forgotten because of the bye week, but the Lions played the Patriots just before then. Goff finished the game with 5.86 fantasy points.

Now he gets the Cowboys’ defense that is given up the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to the quarterback position (12.5). In addition, they have allowed just 5.2 yards per passing attempt.

I want to believe in Goff. He does have some really good weapons. But this feels like a long shot even if you are without the services of Hurts or Allen.

In one of my leagues, my choices are Goff and Jimmy Garoppolo. I just thought you might want to know that the struggle is real.

RUNNING BACKS TOP 5 WEEK 6

1. DEON JACKSON, INDIANAPOLIS COLTS, 28.10 FANTASY POINTS
2. RHOMANDRE STEVENSON, NE, 25.10 FANTASY POINTS
3. AUSTIN EKELER, LAC, 24.30 FANTASY POINTS
4. CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY, CAROLINA, 22.80 FANTASY POINTS
5. LEONARD FOURNETTE, TAMPA BAY, 22.10 FANTASY POINTS

RUNNING BACKS

Oh, Christian McCaffrey, how we have missed you so and hay Mr. Jackson are you for real?

MUST START

Kenneth Walker III, Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Chargers

I’ll admit last week. I was on the fence with Walker. You know, the “wait and see” crowd because he was an NFL unknown commodity and, of course, the feeling that the Seahawks’ offense cannot possibly be for real.

But then something amazing happened. The Seattle offense didn’t ball out in a game that was supposed to go out around 50 points. The total ended up being 28. But Seattle did win.

Walker carried the ball 21 times. He finished with 97 rushing yards, one touchdown, and three targets. And, oh yeah, he had a rushing touchdown to finish as RB5 in standard leagues and RB 8 in PPR leagues.

I’m not sure if you heard this (because apparently Denver Broncos did not), but the Chargers are giving up the fourth-most fantasy points to the running back position(21.0). And yeah, maybe that doesn’t matter to “real football,” but the Chargers also allow the 10^th most rushing yards per game, 125.

Just saying start Walker. Seattle is averaging 23.3 rushing attempts per game, and Walker is going full beast mode (see what I did there).

SHOULD START

Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots v Chicago Bears

I like…like…like when a running back has the backfield to himself. (As a human, I hate…hate…hate it when he gets that because of an injury to another)

In prime-time Monday Night Football this week, the Patriots will play the Chicago Bears. The Bears are currently giving up an average of 26.6 fantasy points to the running back position.

That’s great, but what is better is that his snap count has gone from 24.6% (Week1) to 85.7% (Week6). In the last two weeks, he has had 17.50 fantasy points, and last week 21.10 fantasy points.

MEH

Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders v Houston Texans

I like Josh Jacobs. I would very much like Josh Jacobs to succeed. And now, perhaps new coach Josh McDaniels has realized his success may very well depend on the success of Josh Jacobs.

The Raiders started the season a bit unbalanced. They have attempted to correct the situation. They are now averaging 23 rushing attempts per game for the season. In their last three games, they averaged 27 attempts per game.

Jacobs has gone from 10 attempts (Week1) to 21 attempts Week5. He has been really good.

Week 5 @ Kansas City: 21 rushing attempts, 154 yards, one touchdown, five targets

Week4 v Denver: 28 rushing attempts, 144 yards, two touchdowns, six targets

Our only worry is that McDaniels will outthink this.

Jacobs is in a smash spot against the team, giving the most fantasy points to the running back position (23.2).

LONGSHOT

Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys v Detroit Lions

Elliott had his best game last week against the Philadelphia Eagles. He finished the game with 13 rushing attempts, 81 yards, and one touchdown. The good news is that the Lions are very generous to opposing teams. They allow 5.46 yards per carry (29^th) and 22.4 rushing points per game (32^nd).

The bad news is that the Cowboys are 30^th in red zone plays, and Elliott is touchdown dependent. He has four total red zone touches this season and only two touchdowns.

There is optimism with the return of Prescott, but in Week1 with Prescott, Elliott only had 52 rushing yards and two targets. Then again, that was against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense, and the Lions’ defense isn’t quite the same.

WIDE RECEIVERS TOP 5 WEEK 6

1. JA’MARR CHASE, CINCINNATI, 32.20 FANTASY POINTS
2. STEFON DIGGS, BUFFALO, 30.8 FANTASY POINTS
3. TYREEK HILL, MIAMI, 29.70 FANTASY POINTS
4. BRANDON AIYUK, SAN FRANCISCO, 28.30 FANTASY POINTS
5. MICHAEL PITTMAN JR., INDIANAPOLIS, 26.40 FANTASY POINTS

WIDE RECEIVERS

So, you are missing Diggs, Jefferson, and Kupp? It’s okay…it is going to be okay.

MUST START

Allen Lazard, Green Bay Packers @ Washington

This one is pretty simple ( I hope). Even if we cannot completely trust Rodgers, Rodgers trusts Lazard. Lazard has a 20.9% target rate and 91.5% snap share and is sixth in deep targets (11).

And Washington is giving up the third-most fantasy points to receivers out wide (23.4).

SHOULD START

Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals v Atlanta Falcons

Last week Higgins hobbled along on an injured ankle. He was still on the receiving end of 10 targets and ran a route on 90.5% of Joe Burrow’s dropbacks.

The Falcons are giving up  7.4 yards per target to wideouts (9^th) and 8.4 yards per target to slot receivers (18^th).

Higgins is playing 80% of his snaps out wide.

MEH

Alec Pierce, Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans

Pierce has seen his snap share increase from 49.5% to 71.6%. Last week he ran 43 routes compared to 27 routes run in Week1. His targets have increased, and yes, last week, his fantasy production was saved by a last-minute touchdown, but he has had double-digit fantasy points in the last three weeks.

And last week, the Colts threw the ball 11% over expectation. Let’s hope that trend keeps up.

LONG SHOT

Drake London, Atlanta Falcons @ Cincinnati Bengals

The rookie has the talent for this. There is no doubt. He is targeted on 35% of his routes and has a 33% target share (2^nd highest).

The problem is that the Falcons average 22.8 passing attempts per game (31^st), passing on an average of 42.78% of their offensive plays (31^st). Now consider that they are 26^th in average plays per game (22.7), and London hasn’t much opportunity to excel.

TIGHT END TOP FIVE WEEK 6

1. MIKE GESICKI, MIAMI, 24.9 FANTASY POINTS
2. MARK ANDREWS, BALTIMORE, 23.6 FANTASY POINTS
3. TRAVIS KELCE, KANSAS CITY, 19.20 FANTASY POINTS
4. ROBERT TONYAN, GREEN BAY, 19.0 FANTASY POINTS
5. GEORGE KITTLE, SAN FRANCISCO, 16.30 FANTASY POINTS

“I have come here to chew bubblegum and kick ass, and I am all out of bubblegum.”—They Live (1988) film by John Carpenter

So, what do you say? Let’s kick some ass this week.

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