The Buy Low, Sell High Game Plan (#FantasyFootball)

Going For 2 fanbase my name is @TheBLeagueSays and I am 100% not opting out this season. This week for @GoingFor_2 I have ‘The Buy Low, Sell High Game Plan’ which will give to you some plays to make to boost your dynasty teams with roster construction and evaluations or Best Ball options going forward.

Slant Route

This won’t be the most popular opinion but sell Clyde Edwards-Helaire:

If you have Clyde Edwards-Helaire right now you’re holding a pair of kings at the blackjack table. You could split them or hold them and more than likely still be a winner but for now, I’m going over why splitting away could be a solid option.

Damien Williams has just opted out for 2020 and all that is left behind ‘CEH’ is a bunch of names that have done little to nothing in their careers too. Which is great news for Edwards-Helaire drafters because the opportunity is ripe for him to be separated from the rest of the pack. And all we heard before the above events were ‘Patrick Mahomes hand-picked him’ and that Andy Reid thinks ‘he could be better than Brian Westbrook‘. This again is great news for Edwards-Helaire drafters because now we are throwing in team-centric narratives to inflate the talent.

Since Mahomes took over in 2019, the Chiefs has ranked 23rd and 27th for rushing attempts (387 and 375 attempts respectively). And if 2018’s clustermuck of a backfield with everything that happened didn’t throw you off, last year’s duo of Damien Williams and LeSean McCoy probably did, as they combined for 212 attempts which were good for the RB19 overall for attempts as well. I think as a collective we are banking on ‘CEH’s’ receiving ability to kick him into higher tiers because we saw how damaging he was for LSU in open space, but we are looking at a world where Kareem Hunt was on track for 50 targets and Damien Williams was on track for 53 targets himself throughout 16 games. But if we do the math with how Kansas uses the running back with Mahomes as the quarterback, you are then probably looking at a floor of say 220 rushing attempts and 50 targets? That sounds fine but now we are talking about the floor of 2019’s Phillip Lindsay (224-1011-7 TDS rushing with 48-35-196 as the RB19 in PPR) and if you are ok with that, then that’s awesome.

Myself though? I believe you could get a king’s ransom before a ball has even been snapped this year as he has already seen his value for 2020 potentially hit its peak, and for that opportunistic reason, I’m fielding offers.

Flat Route

What in the actual frick are you meant to do with Ronald Jones?

Three weeks ago I acquired Ronald Jones in a trade, and at the end of it I felt pretty good I won’t lie it was a decent move for both of us to make. Three weeks later I’ve developed a bald spot and gained 20lbs. Coincidence? I think not…

The Buccaneers ‘coach talk’ last year about last season’s RB25 was the same as it is now. These whimsical spiels include:

• ‘It’s his backfield now’.
• ‘He’s a better receiver than you know’.
• ‘He’s put on more size and muscle’.

‘They’ chuck out the bait and the crowd will brutally latch on to whatever side of the coin they like that’s flipped. I’ve also heard that Dare Ogunbowale is the new James White, I’ve seen the same thing about Ke’Shawn Vaughn re Damien Harris and LeSean McCoy is going to take the backfield over, only for McCoy to tell us all that Jones is the guy and he’s there to mentor him. For me, the answer to the above-mentioned question of what to do about ‘RoJo’ in a dynasty league right now is nothing. To me, he is a hold. Boring, I know. Everyone is probably trying to buy low on him and if you believe in his potential you’ll always feel robbed. And if you’re trying to move on from him there’s a chance no one will pay up for him either which is why I don’t believe there’s an actual reason to do anything with him right now.

What I am sold on is ‘RoJo’ in best-ball formatting where he sits in and around the 6th to 7th rounds. I feel more than comfortable picking him up as an RB3 where I do not need to worry about when or when not to start him. In 2019 he had six games of 14 ppg or more which is a decent enough indicator that the boom weeks should still be there without having the actual responsibility to have to pick and chose when to start him like in seasonal leagues.

Comeback Route

He has been cleared, so gauge the price for Preston Williams:

The expectations for the Dolphins in my opinion can be waived for 2020. I am more interested to see how this team is built for 2021 and beyond. They, and we, aren’t in a hurry to get Tua Tagovailoa on the turf after suffering a gruesome injury in 2019 and if that is the case then the same principle should apply to Preston Williams who is coming off a season-ending injury also. So in that regard, I’m ok playing the long game here and he may be a guy you can acquire cheaper than normal because his talent and ceiling are incredible.

I’m tempering expectations for his season as he gains full trust in his leg again, and am perfectly fine to expect a slow start to the season and hope for progress as the year wears on. There isn’t another receiver of note aside from DeVante Parker as Albert Wilson and Allen Hurns have opted out for 2020, and tight end Mike Gesicki looks to make another step forward in his career too but outside of some unknowns Williams seems to have a fairly secure spot on the roster with a stud quarterback being groomed in he could be worth the wait.

Screen Route

The ceiling might have been lowered on Darren Waller, so it might be time to sell:

In my humble opinion, the real comeback player of the year was Oakland’s tight end Darren Waller, who has faced his demons and recovered a career that so many have failed in trying to attain. He was also probably on your waiver wire in week one of the season, and yet he ended up the TE3 in PPR by the end of the year. So strong was his 2019, that if you took away the three touchdowns he had, he still would have ended up the TE6 ahead of Austin Hooper.

Two things bother me about Waller’s potential growth for 2020 and firstly that is the Jason Witten (still weird to say) addition and Foster Moreau. Surprisingly, Moreau was a red zone king as a rookie, going 7-7 with 5 touchdowns. He was as close to perfect as it can get in that respect. Witten was also not that far behind either going 10-7 with 4 touchdowns. Waller has one of the highest snap share percentages in the league and if either Witten and/or Moreau can keep up that form, that likely gives us less opportunity for Waller.

Secondly, the Raiders did bring in guys who can stretch the field (something Waller excelled at) like their first-round pick Henry Ruggs, they still have Terrence Williams and also recruited Nelson Agholor. They also grabbed a possession magnet in Bryan Edwards, and Hunter Renfrow still has that third-down role. There is a sense of better quality in the building and that incredible team target share that Waller had (23.8% with 117 targets) I can see taking a hit also.

So potentially less red-zone opportunity, fewer big plays, and fewer targets? It’s worth listening to see what you can get here I think.

The 9 Route

Misfortune and opportunity met; buy Steven Sims:

Most people can see the youthful emergence of the Washington Football Team on offense with names like Terry McLaurin and Kelvin Harmon. They also brought in exciting prospects like Antonio Gandy-Golden and Antonio Gibson; and hey, we may even get some Bryce Love this year too! But the news of Kelvin Harmon having season-ending surgery already to repair an ACL came as a shock to most purely because it came out of nowhere. And although we look at McLaurin and Harmon as the rookies of last year’s roster to watch, Steven Sims came out of nowhere as well, and from Week 13 to 17 he averaged a healthy 8 targets a game while punching a 40-23-259-4 TD statline. For what it’s worth was good for the WR15 in that span with 14.6 ppg.

I’m not sure that in today’s climate that Sims isn’t the ‘Football Teams’ number two receiver already and if that is the case, the opportunity to collect on a receiver who won’t break the bank, for a team who may be playing for a struggling team and playing from behind more often enough isn’t an ideal scenario to boost the depth for your dynasty teams roster.

Out Route

I’ll never hear the end of this but I can’t buy into Kenyan Drake:

Before you get started: yes, I am aware that from Week 9 on he was the RB4 in PPR. I am also aware that he had Adam Gase and that was bad for his career. I am also aware that he is good at receiving out of the backfield. I am also aware of how elusive he is. I am also aware that they traded for him; I read the news, it happened. I am also aware that they tagged Drake this offseason and have expressed interest in signing him to a new deal.

I’m also aware that: while in his newfound home he had three games under 40 yards rushing (and for the year as a whole averaged 58 yards rushing as well, and also failed to surpass 820 rushing yards for the year), not to mention that he had over 16 rush attempts twice also. I’m also aware that as good as he is at receiving, and that he had one nice game with over 50 receiving yards, but we forget that he also had another game with 6 receptions for 6 total yards too. I am aware that he also ranked 25th for broken tackles, which sounds more elusive than it is. I’m also aware that when they traded for him, they were without David Johnson and Chase Edmonds and had no other running back on their roster before having to play on the short turn around matchup on Thursday night, which ended up being a 5th round pick. I’m also aware of how much they paid the last running back on their roster as well and doing the same thing again will likely hamstring the Cardinals’ growth as a whole.

This by no means is a ‘Pros and Cons article on Kenyan Drake‘ (believe me, I’ve done this once before and it’s still on the GoingFor2.com website) but I’m seeing him with a first-round ADP attached to him and going ahead of teammate DeAndre Hopkins. And I gotta say, for a guy who has done most things inconsistently I just can’t buy into that.

Hail Mary

If Steven Sims isn’t your guy, then buying Greg Ward for even cheaper might be:

The Eagles wide receiver group last year was not what it should have been and it was incredible for Carson Wentz to chuck up 4000 yards with Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert doing most of the work. And we can talk about the Eagles chasing three receivers in this year’s draft and adding speed with Marquise Goodwin this offseason too. But Goodwin has already opted out, Alshon Jeffery has been placed on the active PUP list and that opens up the door for all these young pups who still have to earn their stripes (and DeSean Jackson, I suppose) to get a chance for time and targets. But the way that 2019 finished for the undrafted free agent, Greg Ward will likely have a headstart on his internal competition.

I did mention what Steven Sim’s stat before and the similarities are there with Ward clocking in near-identical numbers from Week 12-17 of 4-28-254-1 TD to close out the regular season. They both checked in with over 40% of their time in the slot. And both saw over 15% target share also. And to close it out, both of their quarterbacks had a QBR of 90 also when targetting either of them. But right now there’s one main difference between the two, and that is cost.

Greg Ward is coming with an ADP around 350th overall at the FFPC, where Sims is sitting currently at around 204th overall as well. Nearly 150 selection differential. On MFL he is currently in 22% of leagues, it’s as if people think JJ Arcega-Whiteside (on 56% of teams on MFL) is going to be a thing again… This needs to change.

I want to thank you for checking this article out! As always you can follow me at @TheBLeagueSays and feel free to check out my @BackRowGiants podcast out (https://linktr.ee/TheBLeagueSays) – subscribe, rate, review, share, and listen.

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