The Five Unique Clusters of Receiver Talent

A common saying in dynasty is to draft for talent rather than situation. How do you actually determine player talent, though? One resource I like for WRs and TEs is ESPN Analytics and their Receiver Tracking Metrics. They have player tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats for 2017-2022. They look at every route a player runs and break down a receiver’s play into three parts: getting open, making the catch, and getting yards after the catch (YAC).

I’m a big fan of stats like yards per route run (YPRR) to determine player talent, but even a stat like this is partially influenced by the general ability of a team’s offense. The biggest benefit to these Receiver Tracking Metrics is they isolate a player’s performance outside the scope of their offensive environment. They let us focus purely on the talent of the receiver.

Each receiver is given a score between 0 and 99 for the three categories (i.e. open, catch, and YAC). A score of 50 is about league average, with higher scores being better. What I’m doing here is clustering receivers together that win in similar ways. I’m using a method called hierarchical clustering to do this. It’s an unsupervised clustering algorithm, which means I’m not telling the model the group a receiver belongs in but am asking it to create those groups using the data. What results is a set of clusters (five in this case) where the players within each cluster are generally similar to each other.

Let’s dig into the five clusters and see if there are any surprises.

The table above provides a summary of the five clusters created by the model. The numbers shown are the open, catch, YAC, and overall scores of the median player in each cluster. The player example listed on the table is also shown on the graph to represent where this cluster lands graphically. In addition, the clusters each have their own color on the graph to differentiate between them. 

Cluster 1: YAC, Pat Freiermuth

This cluster is by far the smallest for the 2022 season. It contains players whose YAC score is their best trait. The highest overall score for a receiver season in this cluster since 2017 is 62, which is above league average but not great. The one true unicorn in the bunch is Deebo Samuel, who unsurprisingly has landed in this cluster each season. His 82 YAC score was 17 points better than second place in 2022. He got the highest YAC score possible in 2021. It’s basically Deebo and players you’d rather avoid in cluster 1.

Cluster 2: YUCK, Parris Campbell

This is the cluster to truly avoid. Not a single receiver season in this bucket had an overall rating above league average. As a now reformed Parris Campbell truther, it pains me to say he’s the prototypical member of cluster 2. Another interesting player that has landed in this cluster for multiple seasons is Gabriel Davis. He wasn’t above league average in any of the open, catch, or YAC categories in 2022. His individual talent isn’t that great; he’s just buoyed by Josh Allen.

Cluster 3: CATCH, Amari Cooper

This cluster contains players whose catch score is their best trait. The remaining two traits are typically above league average and so there are some high-quality overall scores unlike in cluster 1. George Pickens is a particularly interesting player in this tier. He led the league with a 99 catch score in 2022, but was slightly below average in both open and YAC scores. This honestly matches what you see when watching Steelers games; a lack of dominant separation coupled with some highlight-reel catches. The question is truly whether he can improve his open score to make the jump into cluster 4.

Cluster 4: OPEN ELITE, Chris Olave

You’re hoping your dynasty wide receiver lands in cluster 4. The list of 2022 receiver seasons in this cluster matches who you would name as the best receivers in football. Think AJ Brown, Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce. The two most interesting names in the tier are Tyler Lockett and Brandon Aiyuk. Given that Lockett is entering his age 31 season, let’s focus on Brandon Aiyuk for dynasty purposes. Aiyuk had an open score that matched Justin Jefferson, a catch score that matched AJ Brown, and a slightly above average YAC score. The situation isn’t great on an offense with all of their weapons, but buy the talent of Brandon Aiyuk.

Cluster 5: OPEN SUB-ELITE, Chase Claypool

Finally, Cluster 5 is made up of players whose open score is their best category but they weren’t as dominant as players in Cluster 4. An interesting player to me in this tier is Jerry Jeudy. He’s often praised for his route running, and that shows up in the data here with an open score of 80. However, he’s slightly below average in both the catch and YAC categories.

Not every player is like Deebo Samuel and remains in the same cluster every year. Players can improve in some areas or take a step back in another. A player like D.J. Moore has been in three different clusters depending on the season. However, there is some consistency year-over-year. And the most dominant receivers in the league get open at a rate well above the league average. Since 2017, there have been a very small number of busts in Cluster 4, with Sterling Shepard being the most notable example caused by injuries. Brandon Aiyuk is currently WR24 on KeepTradeCut. Bet on the talent before the buy window slams shut. 

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