The Game Plan For Value (#FantasyFootball)

Fine readers of the Going For 2 fanbase my name is @TheBLeagueSays and I am 100% certain that Florida will still find a way to screw up every sport that’s coming to play there soon – I don’t know how but still, watch it happen. So this week I will present to you on behalf of @GoingFor_2 ‘The Game Plan For Value’ which I will give you some plays to make in regards to your Fantasy teams, Best-Ball selections, trade advice, and Dynasty evaluations. 

So before we get started – Thank you, and enjoy!

Slant Route

He has his detractors, but the value is there: 

…when talking about Dwayne Haskins. Now, the red flags are sailing so let’s get those out of the way first. While Cam Newton still remains a free agent I will not believe that Washington isn’t out of the running for him yet. The recruitment of Kyle Allen who knows the offense the new coaching staff wants to be implemented is also a warning sign as well. And hey, even Alex Smith is still lingering about too.

But. Look to the upside:

Derrius Guice will be ready to go. Just like Bryce Love and J.D. McKissic. Another year of Terry McLaurin and Kelvin Harmon along with Steven Sims who was great down the stretch and showed what he is capable of. Add to it the 2020 rookies in Antonio Gibson and Antonio Gandy-Golden and all of a sudden this team feels much younger and explosive after cutting the fat with the oft-injured Jordan Reed, Chris Thompson, Paul Richardson, and Josh Doctson.

I’ve mentioned before that the value Teddy Bridgewater has because of the young, electric playmakers that he has at his disposal, and at some point, you have to consider those same ideals relatively exist for Dwayne Haskins in the same breath too; so much that you can add to that a 75 draft pick discount as Bridgewater (QB25 / 183rd overall) is much highly regarded than Haskins (QB29 / 258th overall) with a massive difference in preference from the pundits.

Flat Route

I’m sorry, I just can’t:

I love Nick Chubb, but his splits with and without Kareem Hunt are ridiculous. The 19.7 ppg points with Kareem Hunt away from the team on suspension was incredible but hindsight tells us that it was probably also your best chance to cash in and sell as high as possible because when Hunt turned up it was a near -7 point swing for Chubb down to 13.0 ppg which hurt him and those who invested heavily in him in 2019.

I have no problem with Chubb as a talent (because he is a stud), but his current A.D.P of 15th overall and as the RB8 off the board in drafts is enough for me to look elsewhere. And again, that feels somewhat ok in terms of range as to where he should be going; but throw in the Leonard Fournette drama in Jacksonville on top of a couple of players who may be holding out for better contracts (I’ll get to them later on) it almost feels forced to take him this high because they are being bumped back to an extent. I’d rather take the gamble and let him fall to me a round or so later if I could. If not, I’ll still sleep well at night if I miss out on Chubb by not reaching for him.

Reaching for him? Hey, look there is absolutely nothing wrong with 13.0 ppg floor like I mentioned before especially if there’s a 19.7 ppg ceiling in there too. But to add to it some context: Marlon Mack was the RB21 on a ppg basis with (yep, you guessed it) 13.0 ppg, which is also in the same ballpark as James White (13.4 ppg). A second-round pick for James White levels of production? I think I’d rather take James White who is currently the RB45 coming off draft boards.

Comeback Route

The comeback is on for:

N’Keal Harry, who has currently slipped down in A.D.P to sit currently as the WR53 taken off the board (166th overall) which is a massive fall from grace for one of 2019’s top rookie/dynasty selections.

And you would have to think that with Tom Brady departing New England that the changing of the guard is in full swing with how the Patriots will now approach their weekly game plan (pun) come September to cater towards their new play-caller. Brian Hoyer if called upon will not hesitate to ‘air it out’, and I doubt that Jarrett Stidham will have any issues doing the same thing either as he tries to impress and take the reigns from arguably one of the greatest to ever play the position.

So, it’s along these lines that I’d suggest that right now that while ‘rookie fever’ is alive and well (I will say ‘rookie fever’ a lot, get used to it), that now is your chance to buy low on someone who was a top-three dynasty asset in 2019. As I have already mentioned where he is sitting in current A.D.P, his Best-Ball status is equally as deafening as a number of 2020 rookies have already jumped him (I have seen so far as many as eight rookies go before him including Devin Duvernay and Michael Pittman) into the 17th round, and veterans who have half busted like Sammy Watkins and even Antonio Brown who has no current team and may not even play again have already leaped ahead of Harry.

Value. There is little in front of him in New England standing in his way. Go get him.

Screen Route

I cannot believe I am about to say this but speaking of value:

Sammy Watkins…

No, really. Sammy Watkins is now of actual value. Think about it. As always, Pat Mahomes going in the first three rounds and we can expect the same again this year. Rookie fever for the hype show that is now Clyde Edwards-Helaire as he was the top running back in this year’s draft is here too. That along with Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill who are both still going in the second round of drafts as well.

That’s essentially four players the Chiefs are providing that are going to be selected in the first 36 picks of any draft you do this year. And for a team that has averaged about 579 passing attempts in the past two seasons alone, that’s still a lot of work to go around for the next receiver in Kansas. Now the assumption is that it will be the current WR49 off the board in Mecole Hardman (which is 12 slots higher than Watkins who is currently as the WR61 or 149th overall) that takes that role and he very well could – but if he doesn’t?

Sammy Watkins is currently the forgotten man on that roster, with even Damien Williams going well ahead of him too. So with six other Chiefs being looked at ahead of him in that high-powered passing offense – I believe that Sammy Watkins now is going unnoticed, and is screaming of value for 2020. Not bad for a guy who finished 2019 with a lazy 90 targets…

Out Route

First Bell, then Elliott and Gordon…now these guys:

So here is the problem I have. I love Dalvin Cook. I love Joe Mixon. I do not love running backs holding out for new, improved contracts. The. Worst. Mixon has only really hinted that he might holdout, but the news this week is that Cook won’t be around until he does get paid.

Damn.

Look I don’t begrudge the men who run into brick walls on a weekly basis looking for more cash because, in all fairness, they deserve it. So I get why the deals they’re holding out for are imperative for them to be done. That doesn’t mean that I have to like where they are currently going in A.D.P with contract standoffs looming. Dalvin Cook‘s value has barely moved where he is still the fourth player off the board, but it looks like Mixon has now fallen out of the first round completely.

However, for me, the risk is too great. You’re looking at dropping potentially your first two picks of your draft on two guys who could well sit out for a long period of time and that to me is a fade in itself. Until these guys get new deals in front of them I am out on them.

The 9 Route

The chalk play:

Or should I say ‘The Chark Play’?

Sorry…

But my point stands. The Jaguars added a few rookie receivers and Tyler Eifert. And I’m not getting on the Chris Thompson bandwagon again. That’s it. That’s how they recruited for 2020.

DJ Chark is going to go bananas this year as the targets will be funneled through him first. Can his healthy average of 8.4 targets per game (118 targets in 2019) hit say 10 targets per week as a minimum marker? I see that as a real possibility, and that will pay dividends for you as current the 60th player off the board can make a massive leap forward into the top 12 range of his position by the end of the 2020 season, where Chark is currently the WR24 so far.

So – buy DJ Chark – now!

Hail Mary

Hey…wanna go deep?:

In fantasy football, how many starting players for a team of any position that isn’t a D/ST or a Kicker (sorry Geoff, they are people too) that you can get for less than nothing? What if I said that on let’s say FantasyPros.com for example that this guy is not even listed with an A.D.P and therefore has no current ranking, at all? Nowhere to be found? What if I told you that the same guy in Best-Ball can be grabbed in the last round of a 28-round draft?

What if I said the same player is on a team whose new coaching staff made this position a focal point for half a decade (and some) and that included five straight seasons of 100-plus targets to the lucky candidate of that position for those coaches? What if in those five consecutive seasons that this player had an overall fantasy finish of 7th, 7th, 5th, 5th, and 3rd?

What if I also said that there were numerous tight ends, like he is, that had the same to similar non-existent rankings and yet had high 2019 finishes? Like Darren Fells or Jacob Hollister or Darren Waller or Ryan Griffin and even Tyler Higbee, who funnily enough, this guy was selected one place behind Higbee in positional A.D.P as the TE72 prior to 2019 starting last year?

What if I told you all this information and it was absolutely intentional that I left his name out of the Dwayne Haskins section at the top of the article for a reason? And what if this team hardly recruited this position in free agency or the draft this offseason? And what if I also told you that he was statistically their best player of this position in 2019 and that he is the only one on their roster with any real experience with their year two starting quarterback?

So… have I got your attention now?

What if I told you that Jeremy Sprinkle will be a thing in 2020?

I want to thank you for getting this far and taking in everything I have presented. You can as always follow and find me at @TheBLeagueSays and to subscribe, rate, review, and share and listen to The Back Row Giants podcast I host every week; which you can follow on Twitter @BackRowGiants also. Don’t forget to check out the #GF2 weekly rankings which you can find https://goingfor2.com/2019-fantasy-football-redraft-rankings-gf2-consensus/, and to subscribe, rate, review, and share and listen to The Armchair Fantasy Show podcast which airs every Tuesday night.

Let’s all get better together!

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