The Late Round Game Plan (#FantasyFootball)

My name is @TheBLeagueSays and I am 100% certain that you should all be wearing a mask. Just wear the mask, please. This week I will present to you on behalf of @GoingFor_2 ‘The Late Round Game Plan’ which focuses on late-round targets outside the Top 150 for your fantasy teams, Best-Ball selections, waiver pickups, or dynasty evaluations.   

So before we get started – Thank you, and enjoy!

The Slant Route

We have a short memory when it comes to Kyle Rudolph –

There’s no Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen is getting older, while Dalvin Cook could hold out with a contract dispute also. The rookies have no connection with Kirk Cousins yet and there are hopes from some that Irv Smith is the real deal in his second year. But with all that said, why is Kyle Rudolph (ranked 230th overall / TE32) moving down the rankings?

His 2019 boxscore says to fade him, that’s why.

After averaging 92 targets over the previous four years, Kyle Rudolph attained less than 50 targets with sub 400 yards in 2019 seemed odd, which has probably crushed previous drafters from siding with him in 2020. It also seems like he was being dubbed from the greater public with the dreaded ‘blocking role’ which was a tad pedantic because he’s been competent at that skill since day one; it just fit a more convenient narrative that this is what he evolved into now to justify the ‘lack of production’. Still, he had the fifth-highest snap count amongst tight ends, tied for fourth with touchdowns amongst tight ends, and ranked 14th overall at the position which included the fourth-highest successful play rate in the red zone as well in 2019 (per sharpfootballstats.com). So you know he is going to be out there most of the time, he’s uber-efficient in the red zone where his six touchdowns (from eight receptions) came from.

For a guy who hasn’t finished outside of the Top 15 of his position since 2014, and has finished a fantasy season as high as the TE2 overall in the past it feels like we are overlooking a guy who will undoubtedly outproduce his TE32 positional ranking pretty easily.

The Flat Route

Where’s the hype gone for Ian Thomas – 

For those who have bought into him when Greg Olsen was out of the team injured, to now being the only tight end on the team worth noting, it feels a bit weird to see everyone’s love for Thomas drop off for others at the position. Thomas has the athletic measurables that new co-ordinator Joe Brady will expose like he did this past year with Thaddeus Moss and Stephen Sullivan who combined for a 59-700-4 TD stat line for L.S.U. He has a quarterback in Teddy Bridgewater who (don’t get mad) is arguably the better pure passer out of the quarterbacks in the Panthers building over the past few years too, who may opt to utilize the biggest target on his team to his advantage. Thomas’s size is a clear separator from Curtis Samuel, Robby Anderson, and D.J. Moore.

But I keep seeing others like Hayden Hurst, for example, climb up the rankings over Ian Thomas (ranked 161st overall / TE19) for no reason other than the success the position had in Atlanta in 2019. But even Jaeden Graham proved solid enough while Austin Hooper was out injured, Hurst on the other hand at times was beaten out to a role by Nick Boyle. Let alone the addition of impressive rookie Jared Pinkney and this group looks potentially just as competitive as the one he was just removed from. I think we want a guy like Hurst and the narrative around his move (while baking in a TE12 ADP) to the NFC South to make more sense because it almost feels easier to trust over a guy like Thomas who has no competition on his roster, a co-ordinator who wants to use the position effectively and a quarterback who is safe and accurate enough to deliver as well. And I’m not saying that these positives don’t apply to Hurst also, but they apply to Thomas without the higher cost.

You have been holding onto Ian Thomas for this long, and the opportunity is there for him to crack the Top 12. Now is the time to reap the fruits of your faith in him.

The Comeback Route

It wasn’t the best year for David Njoku –

This guy in 2018 finished as TE9 with a solid 143.9 points in 15 games as a 22-year-old and that reflected in his ADP as the TE9 in 2019. His season last year was however derailed by a concussion and wrist injury in week two against the Jets and from there David Njoku ‘played’ two more games but by that point, the Browns season was over and he didn’t get a chance to show more than he could. His week one performance was solid enough for 6-4-37-1 TD for 13.7 points in PPR is not only not a solid score in any week but is also is on par for the 2019 average of the Top 12 on points per game basis of 13.29 for tight ends. And considering that the TE12 for the year was Mike Gesicki with an underwhelming 8.5 ppg then one has to wonder not why is Gesicki, who is currently drafted as the TE15, being drafted that much higher than Njoku (ranked 250th overall / TE34) as well.

I previously mentioned Austin Hooper and Irv Smith in regards to Kyle Rudolph. Is there a chance that new head coach Kevin Stefanski uses Hooper and Njoku like he did Rudolph and Smith – but before you answer that – after seeing what happened to both guys in Minnesota last year which player would you still lean on in 2020? The blocking tight end that’s costing you a premium that’s not doing that much most of the time or the athletic move tight end who costs absolutely nothing right now that always poses a threat?

That’s what I thought.

The Screen Route

Every year it feels like we say the same thing about Duke Johnson – 

This preseason trade for David Johnson felt like the Texans and specifically, Bill O’Brien replaced Carlos Hyde with a more expensive, banged up Carlos Hyde via the former Arizona star. Look we can kill the idea off right now about who the lead running back is. It will be David, not Duke. And David Johnson was really solid last year especially in the receiving game in 2019 also. But he lacks the burst, shiftiness, and elusiveness that Duke Johnson possesses. There is also no reason why they both can’t exist on the turf at the same time also so to think that this is a one-man show I believe is a bit naive.

But considering he’s finished a full season only once in the last three years are you sure you trust David Johnson to get through a full season healthy? And regardless of what your answer is, why haven’t you grabbed Duke Johnson (ranked 180th overall / RB51) as well and/or instead? His low cost and high upside in any role have always been there, it always will be, which gives him at times the dreaded ‘handcuff’ tag most seasons, although normally he does ok with stand-alone value, especially in PPR. He could well be the last running back you draft this offseason, and he could also in the end pay the most dividends too.

The Out Route

I’m not sure what the Bears were thinking trading for Nick Foles –

With COVID-19 infiltrating societies, it feels like even though teams make get to training camps later than hoped for, and that those recruits are likely at a disadvantage developing rapport and chemistry amongst their squad. And as the NFL just cut two of the preseason games you would think that having the currently established quarterback on this roster would be the way to start.

Yes, Nick Foles (ranked 166th overall / QB33) is probably a better quarterback than Mitchell Trubisky (ranked 181st overall / QB37), even though he just lost his job to sixth-round rookie Gardner Minshew. Ok, his trip to the AFC South failed. Like his first stint in the NFC East. And in the AFC West. And in the NFC West. And if it weren’t for Carson Wentz‘s injuries who knows where Foles would be right now. I’d suggest he’s probably not a former Super Bowl MVP. But let’s play out a hypothetical game that no one wants to play and say that Trubusky gets the nod to start the season. Chicago’s opening six games are relatively soft which includes home games against the Giants, Colts, and Buccaneers, while on the road to Detroit, Atlanta, and Carolina. He has a relationship with the players and coaching staff already (yes, Foles played a few games in Kansas with Matt Nagy as the offensive coordinator). But what does their record have to be after this start for Foles to get a run? If THAT defense does what it can do and IF Trubisky can show his 2018 form again?

I’m not sure Foles is the starting quarterback from day one. And if I had to pick between him and Trubisky who holds a later round value right now? I’ll take the guy who costs less, thanks.

The 9 Route

As long as he doesn’t land in Oakland – 

If there was anyone that could make the case for being ranked outside of the current Top 150 players and could still end up in the Top 5 of their position it’s likely only this guy, Antonio Brown. Now there is a lot that would have to go his way to get back onto the turf and the court of public opinion at times can be more damning that the punishments the NFL sometimes hands down too.

Still, guys like Antonio Brown (ranked 222nd overall / WR76) are of value in deep dynasty leagues right now but you have to be (just a little more) patient and see what happens, while in Best-Ball formatting you can get him as late as the 25th round which is worth as much of a shot as a Jalen Hurd or Marquez Valdes-Scantling are.

If he is still out there on your waiver wire, then Antonio Brown is very much worth the speculation addition that could pay off big time down the road.

The Hail Mary

What in the world happened to Dante Pettis in 2019?

Dante Pettis is now 399th ranked player overall and the WR128 selected on average. I won’t even lie I saw this guy get drafted in the second round last year (THE SECOND ROUND), and now fantasy purgatory doesn’t even want him. He’s now being drafted behind guys like Maxx Williams and Jeff Driskel. He is free in probably every league you can find. This feels like a bigger ‘hail mary‘ than my Jeremy Sprinkle call last week.

You could find worse to stash.

I want to thank you for taking in. You can as always find me at @TheBLeagueSays and to subscribe, rate, review, and share and listen to The Back Row Giants podcast I host every week; which you can follow on Twitter @BackRowGiants also. Don’t forget to check out the #GF2 weekly rankings which you can find https://goingfor2.com/2019-fantasy-football-redraft-rankings-gf2-consensus/, and to subscribe, rate, review, and share and listen to The Armchair Fantasy Show podcast which airs every Wednesday night. (Data comes from myfantasyleague.com on6/30/2020 for player rankings outside of the Top 150).

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