The Masters: Draftkings PGA DFS Picks 4/5/18

The Masters: Draftkings PGA DFS Picks 4/5/18

It’s the week most of all golf fans have been waiting for – The Masters – as just over 80 of the world’s best golfers will travel to Augusta, Georgia for golf’s greatest tradition. This year’s Masters is shaping up to be, perhaps, the best yet, as veteran golf legends like Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson come to Augusta in-form to face the new rising young guns of golf like Justin Thomas and Dustin Johnson. It’s the old vs. young that hasn’t truly happened in a major before, and this year’s Masters is the event when it all comes together.

Augusta National, the course where the Masters is held, is a unique Par 72 that features little to no rough, wide fairways, but tricky green complexes. This means players will be using driver a ton at Augusta. With it being such a tricky track, let’s discuss what exactly are we looking for in targeting players this week and how we can gain an edge.

Augusta has four Par 5’s – three of which are reachable for most of all players – meaning Par 5 scoring is perhaps the most important stat for success at The Masters. In fact, 12 of the last 18 Masters winners ranked 20th or better in Par 5 Scoring. On top of this, another correlation at the Masters which is crucial is playing the course before. Specifically, since 1934, only three Masters winners have never played the course before. Because their win equity is so low, I’ll be disregarding first-time players this week and focusing on guys with course history.

Some extra tips for The Masters:

1. Play Cash Games: it’s easy to make balanced lineups because the pricing is so soft. The Millionaire Maker is enticing, but don’t be afraid to go balanced and play cash this week.
2.  Don’t go crazy in the millionaire maker: it’s a top loaded GPP where while the winner gets $1 million, the remaining rest don’t get much. I prefer the 20-entry $4 dollar GPP.
3. Leave Salary on the table in GPPs: Because of a smaller field, lineups will be duplicated. Many. Times. Always leave an extra $100 – $500 on the table.

There are three stats which I’m focusing on this week because of the correlation to Augusta success:

1. Par 5 Scoring
2. Strokes Gained Off The Tee
3. Birdie or Better %

Here are my 10 favorite picks at Augusta this year, in order of price:

Jordan Spieth – $10,400

As I’ve played The Masters DFS over the past three years, I’ve come to realize that you cannot fade Jordan Spieth at Augusta. He just knows this place like nobody else. Despite a collapse of epic proportion two years ago, his course history is impeccable: he has a win, two second-place finishes, and an 11th last year, and his discounted price doesn’t reflect this accurately. The one red flag to Spieth this year is his unprecedented cold putting over the past two months. Spieth appears to be uncomfortable over short putts and is in the bottom quarter of Strokes Gained Putting on tour this year. But Spieth knows these greens like the back of his hand; he routinely putts well at Augusta despite coming in with struggles in years before. I’ll be having lots of Spieth this year and prefer him much more to the other guys at the top, if you want to start above 10K.

Phil Mickelson – $9,500

Phil comes into this Masters on quite a run, as the 47-year-old got his first win in five years this year and has routinely been earning Top 10s in events this year. Phil also LOVES Augusta, reflective of a great course history that includes three wins and around a dozen Top 10s. Phil is also an excellent Par 5 Scorer and prolific birdie maker, things that are imperative at Augusta. Phil’s main Achilles heel – a concerning one – is struggling with his driver, something he is aware of. Phil will likely get himself in trouble off the tee this week, but the magic of Phil is watching himself get out of it unscathed and making birdie. I like Phil is a relative contrarian play this week.

Justin Rose – $9,200 (Favorite Play of the Week)

Rose will be the highest owned player this week in cash and GPP, but it’s warranted with Draftkings’ criminal price of the two-time runner-up who is a perfect fit for Augusta. Rose lost in a heartbreaking playoff last year to Sergio Garcia, but he is likely out for revenge this year. Rose has played the best golf of his career this year, winning already and finishing Top 10 in over ten tournaments. He also fits Augusta perfectly, as he drives the golf ball straight and long, is an excellent Par 5 Scorer, and makes a lot of birdies. I see Rose as the perfect correlation play this week, with history, form, stats, and motivation coming together. Like many others, I think Rose will win this year and will have him in most of all lineups I make.

Rickie Fowler – $9,000

Rickie Fowler is a polarizing golfer, as his style and fanfare are immense but he really has trouble closing on Sundays. That said, Fowler is playing excellent golf and is a great fit for Augusta, as he scores on Par 5s, makes a ton of birdies, and putts great on these fast greens. My hope is that Rickie will be inspired by Sergio’s win last year and finally get one of his own, as he’s been so close so many times that it’s bound to happen at a major this year. Fowler is tracking, coming in with form, and is a good cheaper top-tier option for lineups this week.

Paul Casey – $8,800

Casey is another guy who has trouble finishing on Sundays, but he finally overcame this hump this year at the Valspar in getting his first win in many years on tour. Casey’s course history at Augusta is fabulous, as he’s finished in the Top 6 the past three years and has said he has an affinity for Augusta National. With his great history and awesome form coming in – he hasn’t missed a cut since January 2017 – I think Casey has the second highest chance to win behind Rose. He’s deadly with his long irons, 19th in Par 5 Scoring this year, and hopefully has overcome the closing Sunday jitters with his win over Tiger this year. I’ll be playing more than 60% of Casey in lineups this week and think he’s a cash game lock.

Bubba Watson – $8,700

Bubba is a really intriguing play this week, as the two-time Masters’ champ is perhaps playing the best golf of his career. He’s killing it off the tee – as evident by his 6th ranking on tour in SGOTT – and is simultaneously crushing the Par 5s. The only drawbacks with Bubba are his risk factor at a high price and likely high ownership. I think Bubba could very well win this thing if he’s on – and that’s not a risk I’m willing to take in fading him. I think playing 40-50% Bubba makes sense at his price this week, as it’s a perfect storm of course history and great recent form.

Matt Kuchar – $7,600

This is another Draftkings price which I fail to understand. Kuchar is not only trending up in form with great performances in the Match Play and in Houston, but he has 3 Top 5’s at Augusta in the past six years. Granted, he hasn’t been amazing this year, but Kuchar is still making cuts and birdies with regularity and is basically a lock this year to Top 20 at Augusta. At a lowly price of $7,600, I see Kuchar is a cash game lock and a smart play to go overweight on in GPPs.

Charley Hoffman – $7,100

Many of you may remember Charley as the First Round Leader last year at the Masters before falling back to earth with a Top 30 finish. But Hoffman, despite being 42-years-old, is still chugging along playing good golf. He’s Top 60 on tour in both Par 5 Scoring and Strokes Gained Off The Tee this year and is 4/4 in cuts made with a Top 10 at Augusta. At this price, I LOVE his cut-making equity and ability to score on the Par 5s this week. Charley also could very well be less than 15% owned, and if he is I’m willing to have him in both cash games and in 50% of GPP lineups this week. Play him with confidence.

Kiradech Aphibarnrat – $7,100

‘The Barn Rat’ is playing The Masters and I’m excited. Fresh off of beating Jon Rahm in the Match Play Group Stages and winning in Asia, Aphibarnrat comes to Augusta in great form and full of confidence. The reason I like Aphibarnrat isn’t just his form, but it’s also the fact that he played Augusta two years ago and flashed a 15th place finish in his debut – a fantastic finish for a first timer. When asked about his second chance at The Masters, he was blunt, saying, “Now I want to show the world an Asia can surprise and contend in a major.” I like him a lot as a cheap option this week.

Bryson Dechambeau – $6,900

Bryson “The Chosen One” Dechambeau is a polarizing golfer, thanks to his beret hat and weird scientific attitude towards golf. His approach is pretty unprecedented for the sport. But you can bet all his focus is towards The Masters. Bryson is fresh off of a second place finish at the Arnold Palmer and returns to Augusta where he finished 21st at the low amateur in 2016. He’s an excellent Par 5 Scorer – good enough for second on the entire tour – and is very strong off the tee. Because of his history, form, ability, and style, I like Bryson a lot this week to possibly contend at Augusta.

Thanks as always for reading, and feel free to hit me up @ari5610 on twitter for any Masters questions!

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