The NFL DFS Value Vault for Week 7, Sunday 10/23
Every week, I’ll be presenting some of the best value plays of the week, for both Fanduel and DraftKings. If you’re going to enter a successful lineup, you’re going to need some good, lower priced players to offset the salaries of some of the high-priced studs, who get you the big numbers. I wouldn’t go completely overboard with these players, but one or two, sprinkled through your lineups, will make your salary money stretch a lot further.
As the season moves along, value gets a little harder to find and most is based on injuries to starters. If the starter is questionable (or even doubtful) to play, make sure to confirm they’re out prior to kickoff.
QB Kirk Cousins (FD $7,300 / DK $5,900) The Detroit Lions are allowing over 271 yards a game through the air and are ranked 31st by Football Outsiders against the pass. They’re giving up a league worst 24.6 FD points to opposing QBs and gave up 321 yards and 3 TDs to Case Keenum last week. Cousins has been solid during his team’s 4 game win streak, throwing 8 TDs and only 3 INTs. One potential cause for concern is that Cousins historically has a passer rating that is 14 points lower on the road.
QB Andy Dalton (FD $8,100 /DK $6,000) While I like Cousins on FanDuel, I prefer Dalton on DraftKings. The Browns have allowed 3 TDs through the air in each of their last 4 games, while Dalton has been solid against Cleveland, posting 454 yards with 5 TDs and no picks in his 2 games against them last season. The Browns are allowing 23.1 DK points per game to opposing QBs and the Bengals have the 3rd highest Vegas implied total of 27.8 points.
RB Tevin Coleman (FD $6,200 /DK $4,900) Value is very hard to come by at the running back position this week. Unless someone gets hurt in practice or suffers a setback, we might have to pay up for the position. A possible tournament option is Coleman. He and fellow RB Devonta Freeman form a committee, with Atlanta using the hot hand approach. San Diego is ranked 9th against the pass but 21st against the run and the Falcons are 6.5 point favorites and are projected to be the highest scoring team of the week, by Vegas at nearly 30 points
RB Giovani Bernard (FD $6,300 /DK $4,800) Bernard is another intriguing option at RB. With Jeremy Hill banged up and largely ineffective this season, Bernard has had 34 carries and 15 targets over his last 3 games. Cleveland is ranked 19th against the run and 18th against running backs through the air. I prefer Bernard on DraftKings, where his heavy use in the passing game will be rewarded with the full PPR scoring.
WR Cameron Meredith (FD $5,900 /DK $4,700) With Kevin White sidelined for the season, Meredith has drawn starts that last two weeks and has 30.6 and 25.3 DK points, yet his salary has not risen dramatically across the industry. Green Bay’s defense hasn’t been particularly effective against the pass, allowing 41.5 DK points per game against the position, while being rated 25th in the NFL versus #2 WRs.
WR Ty Montgomery (FD $5,600 /DK $3,000) Ty Montgomery is more about the attrition to the Packers skill position players than sheer talent. Davante Adams is out as is James Starks. Eddie Lacy is doubtful and Randall Cobb is banged up and questionable. Meanwhile, newly acquired RB Knile Davis has 2 days to learn the playbook. Montgomery hadn’t had a target all season until last week, when he had 12, turning them into 10 catches for 98 yards and 3 carries for 6 more.
TE Jack Doyle (FD $4,700 /DK $2,500) Doyle has largely outperformed veteran Dwayne Allen, but should see even more snaps with Allen listed as week to week. Primary WRs T.Y. Hilton and Phillip Dorsett are both under 6 feet tall, so the 6’6″ Doyle should be in line to see more goal line targets, especially with Allen expected to be sidelined. Tennessee is ranked 14th against opposing TEs, so the matchup isn’t daunting.
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