The Now or Never Guys: Breakout Seasons Or Disappointing Busts

There’s a quote from this movie (not from the picture above: that’s High School Musical 3: Senior Year) SIMON BIRCH: “I have faith. I just need proof to back it up.” And since my brain connects everything I see and hear to football somehow, I immediately thought of this group of players that I’ve watched and that I have waited years to take a step forward — players that I, and other fans, have thought they could be. But my faith is fading for some of them, and I’m hoping that my faith can be rewarded. I just need the proof, damn it. Let’s go:

Marquise “Hollywood” Brown – Arizona Cardinals WR

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This is my Number One Now or Never Guy. I’ve watched Hollywood be on the cusp of stardom for three years. I’m not entirely sure why, either. Maybe it’s the fact that he’s been this incredible deep threat that has also proven that he can be the number one receiver on his team and those two things usually don’t coalesce. Maybe it’s because there’s always been one thing preventing him from completely (finally) breaking out the way I think he can.

Injuries, injuries to his quarterbacks, lack of any other receiving option around him so defenses can only focus on guarding him, and also poor accuracy downfield from his quarterbacks. He’s only had one season over a thousand yards out of his four seasons played, but he just seems to always be open.

I don’t know if it’s going to be this year, either, to be honest. The Cardinals are by far the worst team in the league and he will be receiving passes from Colt McCoy and a recovering Kyler Murray. Maybe 2024 is the last year I bet on Hollywood.

He’s already 26 years old. So the question is: can a receiver break out at the age of 27? I’m not exactly sure, but it’s clear that time’s running out of his professional hourglass and my patience is running very, very thin.

AJ Dillon – Green Bay Packers RB

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As big of a fan I am of Aaron Jones, I was sure that AJ Dillon was going to take over the backfield fairly quickly. But the way that the Packers use their dual running backs, Jones still gets most of the snaps, most of the pass-catching attempts, and most of the rushing attempts. And while it’s been mildly disappointing to not have witnessed the breakout for Quadzilla himself, it is a little more illuminating when you look at the numbers he’s still been able to put up over the last few years.

Last year, for example, he had almost a thousand all-purpose yards and seven touchdowns on the ground. That’s only with 186 rushing attempts and 28 receptions. I’m not saying fade Aaron Jones, at all. He’s still really good, but if something were to happen and Jones gets hurt, I believe we would see a similar situation as last season with Tony Pollard and Zeke Elliot.

I think Dillon is just waiting to be unleashed. The reason why he’s a Now or Never Guy is because he’s already 25. And every year the Packers continue to re-sign Aaron Jones and restructure his contract I get more and more wishful that they would just trade Dillon somewhere so he could be the high-end RB2 I believe he can be instead of the high-end RB3 he is.

Alexander Mattison – Minnesota Vikings RB

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Timely.

Mattison‘s been everyone’s favorite backup running back forever. When he came in to take over for Dalvin Cook, he would always be a showstopper. In fantasy, if you were able to flex him with your team, you were probably winning the week. And I get it, he’s not really that great (no offense). Less than four yards a carry, sure. Not very fast, yeah. But he got every single, solitary rushing attempt and goal-line attempt and I was always so mad I never drafted him for that exact reason.

Now that Dalvin Cook is gone (really crossing my fingers for Miami), Mattison is the guy. However, this isn’t the Mike Zimmer run-you-into-the-ground of old. This is Kevin O’Connell’s pass-first offense. He’s got good hands, he’s reliable, and I think he will be able to cross a thousand rushing yards this season. I will say (God help me) that I think he’s being a bit overhyped.

I think he’s going to get drafted way higher than where I think he will finish. He’s not Dalvin Cook, but I think he will be drafted like is and I think that’s a mistake. I think he’s more Tyler Allgeier. He’s only 24, so if he can prove he’s the guy, then I think the Vikings will keep him around for a while.

Kyle Pitts – Atlanta Falcons TE

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Just kidding. The kid is only 22 years old. And he’s elite. I won’t stop betting on him until he’s, like, 30. Next.

Jerry Jeudy – Denver Broncos WR

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I just thought he’d have broken out by now, to be completely honest. A top-15 pick out of Alabama usually means instant success. Or, at least, big promise in the first year and a big payoff after year 2. But, really, he’s been fine. Just fine. Nothing more. His problem is his health. He missed almost the entire 2021 season, and in the other two seasons that he’s been a Bronco, he’s started 14 of 17 games. If he can stay on the field, he’s good, maybe even great.

Even last year, with the comedy circus that came with Russel Wilson and Nathanial Hackett riding into town, he had almost a thousand yards in 14 games. That was on 100 targets and 67 receptions. I think he can take a step forward and be the alpha of this very talented, not to mention stacked, offense. I think with Sean Payton coming in and Russell Wilson having a bounce-backish year, he can be a very high WR2. Borderline top 12 receiver. Sue me.

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