The Obsession of the Perfect Dynasty Strategy (Part 1)

It is that time of year for dynasty players. The Playoffs have ended, and it is time for the evaluation of rookies and startups. The diversity of leagues and settings leads to many strategies for navigating your start-up. First, is it Superflex, Devy, One QB, IDP, or All 22? And then is it a snake draft, 3RR, Dispersal, or Auction?

I have participated in one of those and will provide you with my strategy in this series of articles. And give my insight as to whether there is a “Perfect Dynasty Strategy” or whether it is just reacting to the behaviors of your league mates. And hopefully provide insight into any mistakes I believe I have made and how I would fix them.

Dynasty Degenerates 12 TM SF TEP League

12 Team Superflex TEP League

This was a 12-team Superflex Snake Draft with rookies included as opposed to Kickers being used as placeholders. My team ended up as follows

This draft was a classic example of grabbing the core of your team early and then reevaluating. I came in knowing that from the 9^th position, my goal was to secure a Top QB if available, and then a premium WR and TE in rounds 2 and 3. I got Fields at 1.9 before the acquisition of DJ Moore and when there was some uncertainty about his position in Chicago.

While the long-term prospects of Fields are unknown given his playing style and his propensity to run. He is the perfect win-now QB given his upside of scoring like a QB like Jalen Hurts or Josh Allen without the price. And AJ Brown will be a Top 8 dynasty WR as long as Jalen Hurts is still in Philly.

Trading up at the End of A Tier Break

Sitting at the beginning of the 3^rd round, however, I saw that Pitts was still there. And felt unlikely that he would make it back to 3.9 where I was picking. And the owner had been sitting on the clock for a while. So I made a conservative offer of a couple of pick swaps in rounds 6 and 8 and my 11.9 pick to move up 4 spots.

This is an important part of start-up strategy is to not hesitate to trade up if a tier end. 4^th Round may have been a homer pick, but I believe in the talent of Etienne. And believe as the Jacksonville offense becomes more dynamic that he will be a mainstay Top 5 RB. Coming back I got Michael Pittman Jr and I believe this is a buy-low as his value was as depressed last year. The QB situation will certainly improve in Indy. And he has historically been a target hog within that offense.

Pivoting towards Value

It was after the 5^th round that I determined that youth was being overvalued. One team was even exclusively rookies at this point. So given that I believed that I had the core of my team I went after some older veterans. To win in 2023 and retool for the future. Start-Ups are often concentrated with experienced dynasty players who can sometimes value youth too much. While having a young roster is essential for long-term success it is often at the sacrifice of current success.

And all while chasing players who may never become fantasy relevant. Unless you are trading down and chasing future capital and sacrificing 2023 results. In this case, those assets can cost you a draft position as most leagues sort on potential points. But more about that in a future paragraph. The selections of Chubb, Ridley, and Mike Williams were with the direct intent of winning in 2023.

If the season doesn’t go as planned, I can always sell them to a contender in the season for future draft capital. Josh Downs was a value selection as I think he is an underrated rookie who will have sustained production in the NFL.

Rounding out my Starting Lineup

I had at that point reached the 10^th round without a QB2. I had decided to continue to punt the position. As I believe the value at present is with the QBs in their 30s with solidified starting opportunities. As the dynasty community is fading QBs such as Matthew Stafford whom I selected. But other examples in the same range in this start-up would be Jimmy Garoppolo, Aaron Rodgers, and Russell Wilson.

All of these will produce well in a QB2 spot for a contender. Aaron Jones then became a low-cost RB2 who even given the uncertainty of the offense in GB will still produce even if he becomes more of a PPR producer who catches check downs from Jordan Love. If you are in the middle of your draft and have decided to try and compete these are the types of selections, you want.

Late Round Value

Then the next 5 rounds were collecting high-value Free Agent and handcuffing RBs. Mattison and Harris have shown the ability to produce when given the opportunity to and will likely have RB2 weeks. And Zamir White and Jaylen Warren are on offenses that have shown a dedication to running the ball. Warren was even getting Flex-level production before his injury last year.

This will allow flexibility in your lineup and high-level upside if injuries occur. It can also be trade pieces if they ascend to RB1 in their situations and there is another contender in your league in need of RB help. The final rounds were the same thought process but with QB. Took 3 QBs with the possibility to start or of being high-level backups.

It is entirely possible that Tyler Huntley is the QB1 for Baltimore next year and given his rushing upside that makes him a viable start. My goal in this part of the draft was RB depth and assets that have short-term benefits but can be traded for draft capital

Reflections on the Draft

I came out of the draft feeling incredibly confident in my ability to compete this year as well as have the core pieces to be viable going forward. If the team comes out of week 8 and I don’t see contention in the future, several assets will provide draft capital for retooling in 2024.

With some further reflection on the draft, the perfect strategy for me would’ve been to move back several times after Round 3 as the other teams moved up to draft younger players and grabbed 2024 1^st round picks either to use next year on the much-lauded class or to use in trades during the season to combat injuries and prepare for a playoff run.

As there are flat tiers in the middle of startups, I could’ve likely taken someone from the same tier and gained capital. Especially given the overvaluations of rookies within this draft.

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