The Obsession of the Perfect Dynasty Strategy (Part 4)

It is that time of year for dynasty players. The Playoffs have ended, and it is time to evaluate rookies and startups. The diversity of leagues and settings leads to many strategies for navigating your start-up. First, is it Superflex, Devy, One QB, IDP, or All 22? And then is it a snake draft, 3RR, Dispersal, or Auction?

I have participated in each one of those and will provide you with my strategy in this series of articles. And give my insight as to whether there is a “Perfect Dynasty Strategy”. Or whether it is just reacting to the behaviors of your league mates. And hopefully provide insight into any mistakes I have made and how I would fix them.

• The Obsession of the Perfect Dynasty Strategy (Part 1)
• The Obsession of the Perfect Dynasty Strategy (Part 2)
• The Obsession of the Perfect Dynasty Strategy (Part 3)

Creators Anonymous League

14 Team 1 QB TEP Premium League with 3RR. Made up of Comanagers who are Content Creators within the Fantasy Football space

The league’s origins were to get content creators together within the Fantasy Football space to have fun and network. For me, it was the first dynasty team I had comanaged but my comanager was Stephen Chalmers from the Delaware Dynasty Boys Podcast. You should check out their podcast. Our roster was as follows.

The biggest adjustment from going to the typical SuperFlex Dynasty to 1QB is draft pick value as the QBs that typically are the premium selections in Round 1 are now less valuable. So if you are a contending team trading away your first isn’t as damaging. And with it being a 14 Team, Start 10 puts a premium on immediate point production in the middle and later rounds if you plan on contending.

The Gift of 3rd Round Reversal

This league had 3rd Round reversal essentially meaning that the draft order reverses in the 3rd round. So my team had the 13th pick in the 1st round so would have the 2nd pick in the 3rd round. This was especially helpful at the beginning of our draft. We started out intending to grab 2 top-12 WRs with our first two picks. To give us a good foundation for the future. With Kenneth Walker III and Jonathan Taylor going directly before us none of our top 12 had slid to us.

So we selected Jaylen Waddle. I believe a lot of Waddle’s current market depression is due to the uncertainty of Tua’s health and Tyreek Hill’s amazing 2022 season. To me, he will be a Top 8 WR for the next 5 years. With our next selection, the hope was that Amon-Ra St.Brown would be there. However, he had been selected so we instead chose Travis Etienne. This pick was more my choice as I believe in the talent of Etienne and have him as a Top-5 Dynasty RB and believed that was good value for him.

Duval on the Rise?

The Jacksonville offense is likely to be Top-10 next year and Etienne will be a big part of the receiving game as well as the goal-line touches. We then had the 3.02 with 3RR and selected Devonta Smith.

For me at that pick, it was Devonta Smith, Drake London, or Najee Harris. Had Kyle Pitts or Saquon fallen I would’ve advocated for their selection. With the Smith vs. London, I think it boils down to the same level of target competition but Smith having a better QB. I currently have Smith WR10 in my dynasty rankings. And for there is better value in Smith than Najee.

Once we got through 3.02 the draft started to pick up. We first tried to move up for Najee but the price was ultimately too much. This is one instance of my reluctance to move up. Partner probably would’ve made the trade. Which is a balance in comanager situations. Although in most circumstances I would name 3 or 4 I had in a tier and he would pick one.

Trading is more Cage Match than an artform

We then as a team decided to trade up to get a QB. A 1QB league may seem odd but with 14 teams it becomes more of an imperative to get one that you feel comfortable starting every week. Trevor Lawrence was the target. As high as I am on him was my partner’s suggestion.

Then came surveying the board and realizing Justin Herbert had just gone off the board and only one team on the 3/4 turn had a QB. We had to move up a round to get him. So the while initially the offer was our 4th and a 24 1st. It was countered with more value on the other side in terms of pick swaps.

To Negotiate or Not?

This for me is typically when I will just leave the deal on the table. I don’t always have the patience for trade negotiating. I typically offer a fair deal and if you take it, you take it. And if not there will be other deals. But in this circumstance, I had a comanager. Who made the deal happen. Slight overpay by my calculation. But our QB1 was secure.

So we were leaving the first 4 rounds with my QB5, RB5, WR6, and WR10. Not a bad start. Although I knew we would have to get production out of our remaining picks with the capital we traded away. And the trading of our 24 1st meant a win-now mindset

Betting on Situation

5.02 was our next selection and with 3 picks left, we had Jerry Jeudy, Jameson Williams, and George Pickens on our board. Jeudy and Williams went directly before us making the selection rather easy. I am a Georgia Bulldogs fan so I’m very familiar with George Pickens. I have fears that target volume will keep him from being a true top-20 WR but the talent is undeniable.

With our next two selections, we went with Mike Williams and Isaiah Pacheco. Both are highly volatile assets. Williams with his injury history and Pacheco in a backfield where his production could be replaced in the NFL Draft.

How Much Value in Good Offenses?

But they are currently valuable pieces in high-volume offenses. The one thing that sticks out watching Pacheco’s film is running with intensity and purpose. I believe he will have a role in the KC offense going forward and made a nice value RB2 that will likely be replaced next year or in a trade this year on our team.

At this point, the real question on our team was the lack of a TE. The only TE I saw worthy of being drafted in this range was Evan Engram. Who we selected. Had we passed we likely would have gone the high-potential route with players such as Jake Ferguson and Chigoziem Okonkwo. Engram for me is a highly dynamic TE who has found an offense that will feature. He is my TE8 which is far higher than the consensus.

Pathway to Points in a Flat Tier

We had gotten to the 10th round and were filling out a lineup and selecting for depth. After pick 85-90 it becomes a flat tier with some aging vets, some backups with high potential, and guys who have a job for now. We selected Romeo Doubs, John Metchie, Derek Carr, and Zamir White in Rounds 10-13.

Doubs and Metchie should be solid 8-10 PPR point contributors. Derek Carr should be a serviceable backup for us. And Zamir White would be a top 15 RB if Jacobs got injured.

My Strategy at this point was to find as many pathways to points as possible. Because many if not all of them will be off our roster in 2 years with exception of Metchie who will likely be Comeback Player of the Year if he plays in 2023.

If it’s a Dart Throw, Get More Darts

We then selected Cade Otton, Rashid Shaheed, and Jake Ferguson to round out our usable depth. Otton and Ferguson are dart throws on potential. Otton has realized some of that in the past but is in a completely unknown offensive situation. And Shaheed is someone who will likely be a flex for us throughout the season. But is largely a bet on his continued development within the offense after a good finish to 2022

Reflections on the Draft and Mistakes

One of the things that may end up being a mistake is passing on the 2023 draft capital until the very end. We went heavy on the win-now strategy. But this is a very deep class. Particularly in the areas that we are weakest at in RB.

With it being a Co-Managed draft the process went a lot smoother than I thought it would. Our evaluations were different on particular players but once you evaluate it in tiers it became really easy. That would be my advice to others. Have one give a tier of 3-4 players and the other one pick. Unless there is a clear pick. Gives both players buy-in on the team.

Our team is also heavily invested in the Jaguars Offense with 3 players selected. As much as I’m a believer in that offense they play in a slow, plodding division. Our success or failure will go as that offense goes.

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