The Offseason Game Plan (#FantasyFootball)

It’s @TheBLeagueSays here with this week’s ‘Game Plan’ where I give you plays to make for your dynasty rosters construction, prop bets, and best-ball strategies. Before you make any decisions make sure you check out our best ball rankings and dynasty rankings also.

Thank you, and enjoy!

Slant Route

Vivaaaaaaa Las Vegas:

I have been making a concerted effort of late to grab a quarterback early in best ball this year, and sticking with two at the position only. Not exactly groundbreaking stuff, but I find the wheels move quickly in motion if I happen to land Darren Waller early also which leads me to one of my favorite stacks in 2021. I don’t know what the Raiders did to their roster this offseason, all I know is they half blew up a team that showed a lot of promise, and heart, in 2020. As short of a recap could be, Waller stood out and helped Derek Carr (sometimes going undrafted in 18-round drafts) who looked like a version of his 2015/16 self (hey, remember AC/DC that as fun wasn’t it) as the QB13 with about 18 PPG. But where is everyone else?

Henry Ruggs, Bryan Edwards, and John Brown are all hitting that mid-to-late double-digit rounds, and rightly so. They could all be anything or nothing as the probable volatility is real – but at their current price points, I am trying to grab at least one of these guys to pair up with Waller and Carr. They are also three guys you could get in dynasty on the cheap also, Brown I understand isn’t everyone’s cup of tea – but if he can do what Nelson Agholor did, while the other two guys progress from their dismal 2020 season? They could be a high-scoring offense to watch this year while costing you minimal to get onto your roster.

Flat Route

Buyer beware?:

Chase Edmonds is the current RB28 going in the early-mid rounds on Underdog in a best ball draft right now and for the life of me, I have no idea why. Well, I can see why people love hype and narrative and at this time of the year it’s pretty much all we have but aside from that I absolutely do not see it.

“Woah, wait a minute! Everyone loves Chase Edmonds you can’t say that, c’mon what are you crazy?!”

Yes, I am because I love Chase Edmonds too, self-proclaimed I am a fan. But being honest with you is more important than fandom. Yes, Edmonds has an incredible chance and opportunity this year with only James Conner on the roster in his way. Edmonds also faces the uphill battle of having (you know) Kyler Murray standing next to him who not only out-did him on the ground last year but outscored him 11-to-1. James Conner is about as well looking to resurrect his career, and when needed last year – the work that mattered went to Kenyan Drake (now with the Raiders) who was 7th for rush attempts and first downs, and 13th overall for rushing yards. Such a workload has been given to Edmonds a couple of times – he has excelled in the odd game or two when he’s carried the load – but the staff reverts to the status quo fairly quickly. It’s nice to want Edmonds to be the next Austin Ekeler, it’s also nicer to not pay starting running back prices for the backup. Treat yourself to Damien Harris instead.

Comeback Route

No one wants to do this, however:

Now is the time to buy Hayden Hurst (last season’s TE10) as cheap as possible. The dynasty community has turned on Hurst, who is a player that people are treating like garbage because the Falcons drafted Kyle Pitts – but I feel like I have to say this just for some cheap narrative to give a bit of perspective: did Kyle Rudolph disappear when Irv Smith turned up? Did Cam Brate disappear when O.J. Howard turned up? How about Zach Ertz when Dallas Goedert turned up? How about Jarred Cook with Adam Trautman turned up? Jimmy Graham and Cole Kmet? Or Greg Olsen with Ian Thomas? All these veterans stuck about for at least one more season and contributed greatly to their teams’ and your fantasy teams’ success.

Yes – I’m being a tad facetious here because Kyle Pitts (although the wrong choice at Pick 4 for the Falcons and drafted too high for my liking) is a stud and will be beloved even more now that Julio Jones is off to Tennessee. However, if my point above is that veteran tight ends don’t disappear because a rookie tight end turns up, you have completely missed the point. It’s as if new Head Coach Arthur Smith hasn’t been involved in a team as a tight ends coach where he had a solid veteran and a highly touted rookie before, oh wait, Delanie Walker and Jonnu Smith… Damn.

With Jones gone, Hurst won’t disappear because that depth chart aside looks extremely average now at best. I mean Calvin Ridley is amazing don’t get me wrong, but everything after him? Maybe Russell Gage (I guess) becomes a thing? With 159 vacated targets left on the table (with Jones, Todd Gurley, Brian Hill, and Ito Smith no longer about) and having double-digit red-zone targets (along with Ridley and Gage), I also don’t believe his role will be diminished completely as some may think. If someone in your league has Hurst and is bothered by the Pitts addition, ask the question and try and acquire on the cheap if you need tight end depth for your roster.

Screen Route

It’s a shame, but someone is going to overthink this:

I understand that with the news of Cam Akers suffering a season (and potentially career) ending injury, the hype of Darrell Henderson and minimal backup competition taking over for the Rams has many people from 2019/2020 salivating. And that’s fine I’m not here to rain on anyone’s parade. The opportunity justifies the jump. But now we are talking about him hitting the 4th/5th rounds in best ball drafts and that’s fine if you believe in all of the above – but the talent across all positions which he is now finding himself amongst is a lot stronger than what he was seeing in the double-digit rounds.

The problem with this jump in value is twofold. If they bench Henderson all offseason, and the other guys on the roster show out, then there’s a better reason to not flood the workload of Henderson during the season. If the other guys do nothing to impress, then there’s a huge chance that the Rams grab a free agent now or a veteran that could be cut sooner than later. All of the above affects his potentially high ceiling IF you take him now. For me, at the same position, I would rather Myles Gaskin or David Montgomery, both of which we have seen do well as a lead guy, over Henderson who hasn’t managed to take the reigns as of yet.

Out Route

Here’s one that’s short and sweet:

The Denver Broncos are paying $21.00 to win Super Bowl 56 over at mybookie.com. I’m guessing that conjecture is due to a potential move of Aaron Rodgers or Deshaun Watson to the AFC West outfit. There’s a huge chance that the Bronco’s roll with Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater and there’s a huge chance that they’re still the third-best team in their division. ****Since Aaron Rodgers has stuck with Green Bay, the Broncos have moved back to $26.00 to win the Super Bowl. I guess Vegas thinks the Broncos are still in the Deshaun Watson sweepstakes also… 

I won’t lie, I laughed all the way through this section and I hope you did too. $26 with Drew lock, good lord no.

The Go Route

Let me put on my Captain Obvious cap for just a minute:

T.J. Hockenson finished as 2020’s TE5 in what felt like an underwhelming season – this may not be a reflection on him but more so the Lions and I can see where that seems unfair. But do you want to know what sounds crazy? T.J. Hockenson finished as the TE5 and finished over 100 points behind the TE2 Darren Waller. He finished behind him by about 6 points per game. Waller did that by finishing with more targets (107) than Hockenson had receptions (101).

Jared Goff is now throwing to a bunch of guys who were barely role players with their previous clubs, or is he really going to discover a deep ball gem in Quinetz Cephus? It’s going to literally be T.J. Hockenson versus however many targets he wants and that doesn’t seem too far from the truth and we are only in early August right now. Do I believe he can close the gap on the ‘big three’ of Kelce, Waller, and Kittle? Yes. With no Marvin Jones (Jacksonville), no Kenny Golladay (NY Giants or even Danny Amendola – who as a trio accounted for nearly 40% of Lion’s target pie – and with minimal replacements it feels as though the breakout for Hockenson is happening this year, and sitting in the 4th/5th rounds in best ball? Yeah, sign me up every time. This could be a 150-plus target season for the big man.

Hail Mary

You can hate the pineapple, just don’t hate the pizza:

No, I’m not here to tell you that pineapple does or doesn’t belong on pizza (it does), I’m just trying to illustrate a point where we tend to discard the toppings because of one little problem (it’s not a problem, it belongs on the pizza). The proverbial pineapple I am referencing is the quarterback merry-go-round we are talking ourselves into in New England: I believe Cam Newton starts the season, and if it goes the way that the Patriots have planned then the below should hit. The New England Patriots, quietly, have put together a hell of an offense this offseason. Along with tight ends Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith, they grabbed Nelson Agholor who is coming off a career year, Kendrick Bourne has been a reliable slot guy for a couple of years, and this year’s unspoken steal in Jakobi Meyers – all of which are going in the double-digit rounds of your best ball draft – but who are also attainable in dynasty and redraft as well. The stench they have inherited is based on the problems of last year, which wasn’t down to just one thing in my opinion.

But the even bigger steal here? With the Patriots getting a stack of their defense back from opting out in 2020 due to COVID-19, the Patriots are paying $4.00 to win the AFC East and are set at $1.91 to make the playoffs. Look, Buffalo right ran away with it last season, and they could very well do so again – clearly, they have earned the right to be overwhelming favorites for any category you can find them in. However, I’m now talking about a 7-9 team that had pretty much no quarterback before the season started and lost most of their best players before the season began. Their line for wins is currently set at 9.5, and you would think that if they can hit that – then the likeliness of the other options falling into place is a huge shot too. We should know better than to underestimate that franchise, and at these odds, it’s worth a sniff.

I want to thank you for checking this article out! As always you can follow me at @TheBLeagueSays and feel free to check out my @GothamCity_SR podcast (Linktree) – subscribe, rate, review, share, and listen.

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