Welcome to all of your Fantasy Football IDP enthusiasts. I am excited to begin my weekly efforts to help us all understand that age old question that plagues us every Sunday morning. Sunday afternoon. Sunday evening. Thursday evening. Monday evening. Sometimes on Saturday… well we all get it, it is football season! And that question is, who should I play this week? And why? I am planning on providing you that insight each week as we dive into those more ‘uncertain’ plays on our team at the second or third spot for a position. Side note, if you aren’t playing 6 or more IDPs, you are not doing IDP fantasy football the right way.
The goal of this series will be to take a look at those players we are not quite so certain on each week and help identify at each level (DL, LB, DB) an individual who you should be starting with confidence and one you should be fading. The big question mark with IDP though, is what scoring format are you using. IDP fantasy football leagues haven’t reached a level of a “standard” scoring that the vast majority of leagues play with. So for our purposes, we will focus on a format known as ‘IDP123’ (example: Tackles 2 points, FF/FR 3 pts, Sacks/Ints 6 pts) With that being said, let’s get into why you came here!
Defensive Line, Start – Chris Jones, DT, Kansas City Chiefs
Chris Jones put up a respectable pass rush grade from PFF of 73.9 against a strong offensive line in the Cleveland Browns. He managed to turn that into 2 sacks and 1 solo tackle. This week he will be playing against a Ravens offensive line that had its up and downs against the Raiders. One of those big downs was Andrew Villanueva and he looked like a human turnstile. The Chiefs willingness to move Chris Jones all over the line will find him in favorable matchups against Villanueva in those pass rush specific situations. Jones big play upside this week make him a must start.
Defensive Line, Sit – Josh Allen, Edge, Jacksonville Jaguars
Tunsil and Howard aren’t the bookend tackles every franchise is looking for. In fact, their pass blocking grades from PFF (Tunsil 76.6, Howard 41.4) leave quite a bit to be desired. Bobby Massie and Garrett Bolles bring a bit more consistency between the two of them as well in their pass blocking efforts. The Broncos passing attack will continue to be more focused on quicker, timing routes with Teddy Bridgewater under center, allowing for less opportunities for pressures, hits and sacks. This opportunities look to be about the same but the lack of a plus matchup will allow limited production this week. And from a player who thrives on the big play with limited tackle floor, you can find a better opportunity for a defensive line play.
Linebacker, Start – Jordyn Brooks, LB, Seattle Seahawks
Jordyn Brooks appears to have carved out the role alongside of Bobby Wagner very quickly here in the start of year 2 for the young LB. In his rookie year he struggled to move past K.J. Wright on the depth chart who was very strong in coverage as the other off-ball linebacker. Jordyn Brooks though with an impressive 76.0 coverage grade from PFF for week 1 is on the right path to staying on the field and in this role. His snap count was strong as well at 89% (68 snaps, with an additional 8 special teams to boot) and his matchup against the Tennessee Titans this week bodes well as they are coming off a week where they struggled to get things going offensively and presumably would want to get Derick Henry going early and often versus the game situation forcing arguably their best offensive weapon off the field. This matchup is setup for Brooks and Wagner to feast on the tackles with the upside of pass breakups to strengthen the floor for a Brooks play in week 2.
Linebacker, Sit – Christian Kirksey, LB, Houston Texans
Kirksey was a fun story for week 1 after a rough year in Green Bay last season and the Texans looking like a fantasy (and a real NFL team) wasteland on both sides of the ball. Kirksey’s week 1 numbers are boosted by a big play interception that was a gift more than a great play and two broken up passes while playing an NFL QB in his first game (I don’t care how “generational” he is either, he is still a rookie).
But his numbers are supported by an inflated number of plays run by the Jaguars (74) and playing 100% of them. This is normally prescriptive of more potential success, except Houston is going to Cleveland in week 2. And Cleveland works to control the game at the line of scrimmage and through Chubb and Hunt. In their week 1 game against Kansas City, Cleveland controlled most of the game and they ended up running a total of 54 plays. That will be a significant drop off in the work Kirksey sees as he has been more in the deep LB role in Lovie Smith’s Tampa Cover 2 defense. Kirksey will still have value as a low-end LB2 or high-end LB3 in other matchups, but not here in week 2.
Defensive Back, Start – Taylor Rapp, DB, Los Angeles Rams
Rams’ safeties have generally held good value in the past, but there were so many questions after this off season. John Johnson III is gone, who steps up? Taylor Rapp? Jordan Fuller? Joe Staley is gone, was this success a product of him? Can it be reproduced without him or John Johnson?
Well, after week 1, all signs are pointing to Taylor Rapp (and maybe Jordan Fuller a bit too). He took 100% of the 69 snaps, nice (as did Fuller). Rapp had 10 tackles combined and Fuller had 11. So how do we decide between the two to know what is the right play? What this boils down to is, where are these snaps taking place? And when the Rams wanted to move into sub-packages and shorter ‘to-go’ situations, Rapp was the one getting most snaps near the line of scrimmage. And these are more valuable snaps than any other. Fuller still took some of the snaps in the box, but it leaned much more heavily to Rapp overall and if this pattern continues, he is will be the name to own throughout the season.
Defensive Back, Sit – Jabrill Peppers, DB, New York Giants
30 of 66 snaps… for a team captain. Does something sound wrong or feel off about it? Well it should, but that is the situation with Jabrill Peppers and this crowded safety room. He was the leader of the three in the rotation between himself, Julian Love and Nate Ebner. But 30 snaps is not going to be enough to be relevant from week-to-week. With the team naming him captain, previous success with this coaching staff and no other known injury or reason to limit his snaps, this is very concerning and would be someone to stay away from until their is a stated path to increased snaps or we see it on the field.
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