Welcome back to all of those checking out the sit/starts for week 3! (And a huge thank you to those who are coming back, week 2 was rough. Thanks for nothing Chris Jones!)
As always, the goal of this series will be to take a look at those players we are not quite certain on each week and help identify at each level (DL, LB, DB) an individual you should be starting with confidence and one you should be fading.
The big question mark with IDP though is what scoring format are you using. IDP fantasy football leagues haven’t reached a level of a “standard” scoring that the vast majority of leagues play with. So for our purposes, we will focus on a format known as ‘IDP123’ (example: Tackles 2 points, FF/FR 3 pts, Sacks/Ints 6 pts) With that being said, let’s get into why you came here!
Defensive Line, Start – J.J. Watt, DL, Arizona Cardinals
Justin James Watt is not what we have come to expect over the last few years. It has been either an injury or finding a way to produce meaningful numbers for his team and IDP fantasy football. This year has thankfully not been an injury but the production hasn’t shown up either yet.
However, Watt has the perfect cure for the lack of pass-rush numbers in the Jacksonville Jaguars. Arizona has a solid plus matchup against a struggling Jaguars offensive line and coming into this matchup, Watt is not the one with all eyes on him. Chandler Jones had the huge 5 sack game in week 1 and the focus will be on that level of disruption. A level of disruption that J.J. has not had the privilege of playing alongside in his career up to this point.
And what is the cherry on top of all of this? The Cardinals offense has been prolific and will push this game script to a pass-heavy one that will increase the attempts for this Arizona front.
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Defensive Line, Sit – Khalil Mack, Edge, Chicago Bears
Khalil Mack has been an extremely IDP fantasy player since he got in the league as a rookie with the Raiders. The biggest thing he established during this time though was not just the sacks, which are of course the numbers everyone gets drawn to, but the part that is not as flashy and helped create the top-end IDP numbers were his amazing tackle production. He was consistently delivering 75+ tackle seasons along with 12+ sacks. Now he is just getting close to 50 tackles.
Now with a slow start to the year and week 3 matchup against a Cleveland Browns team completely poised to run the ball with many injuries at the WR position. An offensive scheme predicated on running the ball to establish itself and is in the bottom third of plays run per game. It is a game that is set up for low production from the IDP standpoint for the Chicago Bears. And for a player in Khalil that is struggling to consistently deliver the big play and doesn’t have the safety of a strong tackle floor like early on in his career, this is a matchup for you to steer away from this week.
Linebacker, Start – Patrick Queen, LB, Baltimore Ravens
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Patrick Queen coming out of LSU was marked as an athletic LB that had concerns in coverage. He hasn’t shown major growths in this area, however, he has done enough to stay on the field for 100% of the snaps and make himself involved in all of those coverage plays. And sometimes, being OK is better than being good when it comes to coverage for IDP fantasy football production.
No other linebacker on this team is putting up the production in pure stats (12 combined tackles and 0 sacks from Bowser and Harrison) so all signs point to him owning that portion of the field where TJ Hockenson, Deandre Swift, and Jamaal Williams will try and make their hay. Patrick Queen most likely won’t be making stops in the passing game, but he will be there to wrap up the receivers and tally plenty of total stops making him a great play this week against the Detroit Lions.
Linebacker, Sit – Shaq Thompson, LB, Carolina Panthers
Shaq Thompson had a monstrous week 1 for IDP fantasy football. For those who forgot, 10 combined tackles, 1 for loss, 1 sack, 1 interception, and 2 passes defended. Week 2 saw a rough return to earth with only 4 combined tackles. Now the question is, where does he land on this spectrum of performances? Looking at his matchup against the Texans for week 3, I think we fall on the lower end of the scale… for now.
Thompson may have an upside of big-play going against the rookie quarterback in Davis Mills with Tyrod Taylor getting moved to IR with a grade 2 hamstring injury, however, the most likely outcome is a Texans offense that can’t maintain a drive against a Panthers defense that has proven to be stifling the first two weeks of the season. This means that the Panthers’ defense will see reduced opportunities and lower IDP output for this week.
Defensive Back, Start – Khari Willis, DB, Indianapolis Colts
Khari Willis was a DB2 for me all off-season and loved what he showed last year in terms of play-making ability at times for a nice upside but importantly his solid floor thanks to his tackle work week in and week out. 7 tackles combined for both week 1 and week 2 but even more impressive, they are almost all solo tackles (6 and 7 respectively).
Now take a look at what safeties in similar roles have done the last two weeks in Isaiah Simmons and Quandre Diggs to a lesser extent against the Titans and you see a path for more continued success in the tackle department for Willis. Tack on the fact that Tannehill has 4 turnovers (1 interception and 3 fumbles lost) in the first two games and Willis’s nose for the ball, there is a chance for a nice ceiling performance as well.
Defensive Back, Sit – Justin Reid, DB, Houston Texans
Speaking of ballhawks and players with a nose for the ball, Justin Reid has been off to a great start this season breaking up 1 pass and intercepting another in each of his first two games. He has added in 8 tackles to go along with it to round a nice start to the year. Unfortunately for that week-to-week success, we are not looking for stats like interceptions and fumbles as truly predictive stats. Snaps and tackles are what we want to build out a more secure lineup each week.
But for Reid, the snaps took a pretty bad drop 97% to 75% and the tackles are OK if you are truly in a pinch, but you are looking to win your matchup, not lose it. Justin Reid is an IDP player this week that you are trying avoid for now even after a hot start.
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