Hello again to all of you IDP fantasy football fanatics. It is great to have swing by for another week of ‘The Only IDP Sit/Start You Need to Win Week 5’.
As always, the goal of this series will be to take a look at those players we are not quite certain on each week and help identify at each level (DL, LB, DB) an individual you should be starting with confidence and one you should be fading.
The big question mark with IDP though is what scoring format are you using. IDP fantasy football leagues haven’t reached a level of a “standard” scoring that the vast majority of leagues play with. So for our purposes, we will focus on a format known as ‘IDP123’ (example: Tackles 2 points, FF/FR 3 pts, Sacks/Ints 6 pts) With that being said, let’s get into why you came here!
Defensive Line, Start – Trey Hendrickson, DL, Cincinatti Bengals
Trey Hendrickson is most certainly in that group of more boom/bust type plays IDP fantasy football. However, the matchup against the Packers sans David Bakhtiari would be the right time to play Trey.
The biggest reason why this matchup favors Hendrickson is that even though Rodgers has one of the quickest releases still in the NFL, however, he still likes to extend plays (and does so successfully) but one of Hendrickson’s strengths is his ability to continue to pursue and fight through a broken play as well.
Along with the ideal mesh of play styles and outcomes, the one spot the Packers have been susceptible to the pass rush has been off the edges with all of the sacks coming from edge rushers or blitzes off the edge. Hendrickson won’t support you with strong tackle numbers week-to-week, but he will give you strong weeks with big-play impact, and this week, Trey will find his way to the QB and capitalize on an ideal matchup.
Defensive Line, Sit – Chris Jones, DE, Kansas City Chiefs
Chris Jones had a tremendous week 1 in terms of on-the-field production against a stronger offensive line in the Cleveland Browns with 2 sacks, 3 tackles, and 2 QB hits. Since then he has managed 4 combined tackles and 6 pressures. He is forcing hurries and even getting a couple of knockdowns. When looking at those numbers you would think the regression to the mean would be coming for Chris Jones in terms of sack production or plays behind the line of scrimmage. Next on the docket for Jones and the Chiefs? The Buffalo Bills and an offensive line that his limited opponents to just 3 sacks through the first 4 weeks.
They haven’t done this through the overwhelming strength of just their o-line, but appropriate schemes and utilization of the talent on the offensive side of the ball and Josh Allen’s ability to move up and around the pocket/pressure. Chris Jones is athletic enough to make some impressive plays, but the matchup against a unique talent and scheme of the Bills doesn’t bode well for his production this week. I would avoid starting him for this week look forward to his next two upcoming matchups against the Football Team and the Titans for some more consistent production.
Linebacker, Start – Quincy Williams, New York Jets
Robert Saleh has shown an ability to make the most out of the talent he has been given (take a look at the injury-plagued 49ers last year and then when they were healthy and their Super Bowl run). With Saleh at the helm in New York in what feels like a full rebuild, but 1/4 of the way through the season there numbers a defensive unit have improved pretty much across the board. Again, Saleh unlocking the talent here is what we are finding.
CJ Moseley was always filling up the stat sheet when healthy several years ago and we have seen him return to form after nearly two full years without football (impressive in its own right) but he has also found a diamond in the rough with Quincy Williams (brother to other New York Jet, Quinnen Williams). Besides the coaching upgrade, the overall defensive improvement, and the bloodline pointing to more success, why else should we be playing Q-Will#2?
Quincy finds himself at the ideal intersection of someone who grades at as a strong enough pass rusher to add big-play upside (grades out at 64 per PFF), isn’t strong enough in coverage that they won’t throw at him but still athletic enough to make the tackle right away (grades out at 43 per PFF) and he plays on a team that doesn’t have a strong enough offense yet to consume the possession of the ball keeping the defense on the sideline and limit the pure opportunity in snaps (he had 97 this last week in an OT game with the Titans).
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I would just caution you if you choose to watch him play live, he can be infuriating to watch as he is not the strongest tackler when stepping up to the hole to make that play. This is one thing I can overlook due to the perfect storm of everything else in play for Quincy.
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Linebacker, Sit – Jerome Baker, Miami Dolphins
Jerome Baker had the narratives to be the linebacker for the Miami Dolphins. The snaps played show the Dolphins’ belief in that with snap percentages of 99, 97, 100, and 100 through the first four weeks. They also paid him top-tier money in 3 years, 37.5 million with 20 of that guaranteed (this made him the 10th highest paid LB in the league). Heck, the Dolphins even cut run-thumper Bernardick McKinney before the start of the season which showed me, they had all the confidence in the world that he would take care of business in the middle of that defense.
Four weeks into the NFL and IDP fantasy football season, we are seeing something different than what most would have expected for both the Dolphins and Jerome Baker. Besides the Dolphins’ woes as a team, I think we still anticipated that Jerome Baker would be able to absorb the bulk of that work though. However, he has proven to be quite inefficient, here is an excellent data representation of that thanks to @TomKislingbury (check this out).
Lastly, he hasn’t been able to convert big plays, namely pressures, hits, and most importantly sacks. He was able to convert 99 pass rush attempts into 20 pressures and more importantly, 7 sacks. So for this year, 20 pass rush attempts have been converted into 2 pressures and 0 sacks.
Defensive Back, Start – Kamren Curl, DB, Washington Football Team
The Washington Football Team’s backend of their defense has been quite the enigma through the first 3 weeks of the season. Primarily due to the ever-changing snap counts and shifting of the roles a bit between Curl, Bobby McCain, and Landon Collins. With Benjamin St-Juste and Jon Bostic’s injuries, things have become a bit more clear as to how Washington will play things this week.
The biggest tell of this was Washington’s quick shift to heavy use of dime personnel with Curl playing in the slot and with things looking the same for week 5, Curl becomes a very solid play this week against a New Orleans Saints team that is struggling to produce much through the passing game and is clearly continuing their shift to a run-focused offense.
Kamren Curl playing that close to the line of scrimmage will find a way to produce very nice tackle numbers and has a strong nose for stepping up to make those tackles in the run game. So until Washington sees healthy personnel returned, or maybe gets their head out of their backside and starts including Jamin Davis more, Curl in this role is one we want to capitalize on for our IDP fantasy lineups.
Defensive Back, Sit – Jordan Fuller, DB, Los Angeles Rams
Jordan Fuller has had plenty of opportunities this season and has done a nice job producing with them as well. So why would someone want to fade him this week you ask? Two words. Pete. Carroll.
Teams playing the Seahawks in the first two weeks sound excellent production in their secondary for IDP fantasy football. The Seahawks’ offense looked explosive, Russell Wilson was cooking, and they were looking like a strong NFC team. However, good ol’ Peter Carroll went back to the super creative and productive offense of running on first and second down and have Russ play hero ball on third down.
Seeing this and the produced results for their IDP opponents, I am weary of what Rams’ IDP represents in terms of value this week, especially their secondary. I think Jordan Fuller has a great outlook for the entirety of the season, but this week I would look like to play a comparable option from your team if available or if you have the luxury of grabbing from the available players, it would be worth the shot.
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