The Only Week 9 Sit/Start Article You Need (2021)

The good news, I guess, is that there are only four teams on a bye this week: Detroit Lions, Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and WFT.

The lines for the games this week are from DKSportsbook.

TENNESSEE TITANS @ LOS ANGELES RAMS, o/u 54, Rams 7.5 favorite

Start: Van Jefferson, Wide Receiver, Rams

The Rams offense only passes the ball on 57.34% of their offensive plays (20^th ranked).  However, they are fourth in passing yards per game (301.8), sixth in passing touchdown percentage (75.86%), fifth in points per game (30.6), and first in red-zone scoring attempts per game (4.8).

I throw out these stats because starting the third-option wide receiver may seem futile.  But remember, Jefferson is on the field for 77.9% of the offensive snaps, and he has a 14.2% target share on a team that is efficient in passing the ball.

It also helps that the Tennessee Titans are giving up the most fantasy points per game (28.9) to the wide receiver position.

Sit: Adrian Peterson, Running Back, Titans

The Rams have the 11^th ranked run defense allowing 103.4 average rushing yards per game.  This will be Peterson’s first game of the season.  While he may be good, he has never been known as a pass-catching running back.

This game has a week high over/under 54 points. 

If you are betting on any back in Tennessee, make it Jeremy McNichols. McNichols has the second-most receiving yards on The Titans, and this game looks to be about the passing. 

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS started 54o/u, KC 2.5 favorite NOW 48 o/u, Kc 7.5 favorite

In case you haven’t heard, Aaron Rodgers is out for this game and possibly the next.

Start: AJ Dillion, Running Back, Packers

This isn’t a sit Aaron Jones option. It is a running back by committee against a team that allows 5.5 yards per carry-on teams vs. 11 personnel.  Previously with Rodgers under center, Dillion has carried the ball 35% in the first half of games regardless of the game script.  Now without Rodgers, the Packers will ask Jordan Love to continue their winning ways, and that just feels like a lot of running back play.

Sit: Darrel Williams, Running Back, Chiefs

The Packers are giving up 115 average rushing yards a game (17^th ranked). They have allowed seven rushing touchdowns and yielded an average of 17.1 fantasy points to the position. So meh.

This is more about Williams and the Chiefs’ offense.  Last week Williams rushed 13 times for 49 yards. The week before, he rushed five times for 20 yards, and in neither game did he see the end zone.

The Chiefs keep looking for their “get right game,” it is a pretty safe bet it isn’t going to be through the run game.

Prop bets for this game from BettingPros.com: Darrel Williams under 48.5 rushing yards FoxBets, rush attempts under 11.5 Caesars

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES, o/u was 51 now 49, Chargers were 2.5 now 2 favorite

Start: Dallas Goedert, Tight End, Eagles

The Chargers are giving up the second-most fantasy points to the tight end position (18.9).  They have also surrendered five touchdowns to opposing tight ends.

Goedert is on the field for 69.6% snap share and sees a 14.2% target share.  Last week he was on the field for 44 snaps and had 61% of the Eagles’ passing offense.

Sit: Justin Jackson, Larry Roundtree, any Chargers Running Back not named Austin Ekeler

In the last three games, Roundtree and Jackson have accounted for 21 rushing attempts, 117 yards, and zero touchdowns…between them. 

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS, over/under, was 50.5 now 50, Ravens 6 favorite

Start: Tyler Conklin, Tight End, Vikings

The Ravens are allowing the most fantasy points (12.77) to the tight end position. 

Last week Conklin was second on the team in targets (7) and second in passing yards (57).

Sit: Latavius Murray, Running Back, Ravens

Murray did not play when the Ravens were last seen getting their asses kicked by the Cincinnati Bengals. Word is he didn’t practice Thursday, so his prospects for playing are diminishing.  It really doesn’t matter because the running game is running through quarterback Lamar Jackson.

Prop Bets from BettingPros.com for this game: Lamar Jackson under 250.5 passing yards FoxBets, Jackson over 60.50 rushing yards BetMGM

BUFFALO BILLS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS, over/under, was 49.5 now 48.5, Bills were 14 now 14.5 favorite

Start: Zack Moss, Running Back, Bills

The Bills are a two-touchdown plus favorite.  And while Moss isn’t seeing a ton of rushing attempts, he is being utilized in the passing game, where the Jaguars are dead last at defending.  He has 11 targets in the last two games, seven of those last week.

Sit: James Robinson, Running Back,  Jaguars

First, the Jaguars are predicted to be playing from behind, necessitating quarterback Trevor Lawrence throwing the ball a lot. Second, Robinson has a bruised heel, and if he suits up will not be at 100%. But perhaps most important, the Bills are allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points (12.5) to the running back position, including only allowing three rushing touchdowns.

DENVER BRONCOS @ DALLAS COWBOYS, o/u 49.5, Cowboys were 7 now 10 favorite

Start: Amari Cooper, Wide Receiver, Cowboys

The Cowboys’ offense is predicted to score the third-most points in Week 9. 

Last week Cooper was targeted 13 times for eight receptions, 122 yards, and a touchdown. 

Meanwhile, the Von Miller less Broncos are giving up 224.9 passing yards a game and an average of 1.1 passing touchdowns per game.

Sit: Javonte Williams, Running Back, Broncos

Williams has only been on the field for 23 snaps in Week 8 compared to Melvin Gordon’s 30.  Gordon finished with 10 rushing attempts, 47 yards, one touchdown, three targets, and one receiving touchdown.  Williams finished with nine rushing attempts, 35 yards, four targets, and zero touchdowns.

So not only do you have the headache of the running back by committee, but Dallas is giving up the eighth-fewest fantasy points to the running back position.

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS @ NEW YORK GIANTS, o/u 46, Raiders 3.5 favorite

Start: Daniel Jones, Quarterback, Giants

The Raiders have given up 11 passing touchdowns to the quarterback position.  Jones has played well with his revolving supply of receiving options.   

Sit: Bryan Edwards, Wide Receiver, Raiders

Until it is clear where the targets will go, it is best to play it safe.  It is also worth noting that ProFootballFocus.com predicts Edwards to be shadowed by James Bradberry, who is good against big-bodied receivers.

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ SAN FRANCISCO NINERS, o/u 45, Niners 2 favorite

Start: Deebo Samuel, Wide Receiver, Niners

Per Sports Info Solutions, the Arizona Cardinals blitz at the fourth-highest rate (33%).

Samuel sees a 44% target share against the blitz compared to a 30% target share in non-blitz dropbacks.  Samuel also leads the team with a 33.3% target share, which last week equaled nine targets, six receptions, and 171 receiving yards. 

Sit: Chase Edmonds, Running Back, Cardinals

Monitor the status of Edmonds if you are considering playing him as he has a shoulder injury.

The Niners are giving up the 11^th-fewest fantasy points to the running back position. 

Quarterback Kyler Murray was in a walking boot after their last game.  If Murray is out or playing injured, the ceiling for Edmonds lowers. 

In their Week 5 meeting, Edmonds had six rushing attempts for 15 yards, and four targets, three receptions for 19 yards.  

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS, o/u was 45.5 now 47, Bengals were 3 now 2.5 favorite

Start: Joe Burrow, Quarterback, Bengals

Yes, it is almost automatic (sorry, Beals). Burrow has had at least two passing touchdowns in every game this season. 

The Browns are giving up the sixth-most fantasy points to the quarterback position.  

Sit: Odell Beckham Jr., Wide Receiver, Browns

This is a given, right?  He hasn’t practiced with the team in the last two days.

Prop bets from BettingPros.com: Joe Mixon over 60.50 rushing yards DraftKings; Joe Burrow under 270.5 passing yards BetMGM

HOUSTON TEXANS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS, o/u was 45.5 now 46, Dolphins were 7 now 5.5 favorite

Start: Mike Gesicki, Tight End, Miami

The Texans are giving up the third-most PPR fantasy points to opposing tight ends. 

Gesicki leads the team in receiving yards (475) and has been targeted 21 times in the last three games (4,8,9).

Sit: David Johnson, Running Back, Texans

After the Mark Ingram trade, Johnson was on the field for a season-low 18% of the offensive snaps.  Johnson has not had over 30 rushing yards nor a touchdown all season. 

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS, o/u was 43 now 41, Patriots 3.5 favorite

Start: Damien Harris, Running Back, Patriots

Yes, the Panthers have indeed allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs (11.3).

But there have been a few scratches in their armor.  In Week 8, Mike Davis averaged 4.9 yards per carry. In Week 7, Devontae Booker scored a rushing touchdown on 14 rushing attempts, and in Week 6, Dalvin Cook ran for 140 yards and a touchdown.

Look for the Patriots to run often, say about 40.51%.

Sit: Tommy Tremble, Tight End, Panthers

There is nothing wrong with legitimately chasing the points.  Tremble was the third-most targeted player on the Panthers last week.

The legitimacy ends here. The Panthers play the Patriots this week, who have allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to the tight end position (3.9).

ATLANTA FALCONS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS, o/u was 43.5 now 41.5, Saints were 5 now 6.5 favorite

Start: Taysom Hill, Quarterback, Saints

There is a chance that Hill isn’t the starting quarterback for the Saints Week 9, which would be tragic for fantasy football. 

It isn’t always pretty, but Hill’s rushing upside is fantasy gold.

Monitor his status. 

Sit: Russell Gage, Wide Receiver, Falcons

Last week Gage was on the field for 36 offensive snaps, and he wasn’t targeted.  Now he has a groin injury that has limited him in practice this week.

CHICAGO BEARS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS, o/u 39, Steelers 6 favorite

Start: Pittsburgh Steelers Defense

This game has the lowest predicted points for the week, and the Bears have given up the third-most fantasy points to opposing defenses.  That and TJ Watt are really all you need to know.

Sit; Justin Fields, Quarterback, Bears

The Steelers defense likes to apply pressure.  Fields isn’t very good under pressure.

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