The Pros And Cons Of Kenyan Drake (Fantasy Football)

‘I am going to Draft the lowest common denominator because there is no risk – therefore I win if he does well or if he fails.’

Fine readers of the Going For 2 fanbase my name is @TheBLeagueSays and I am 100% advocating you watch ‘Barry’ on HBO – Bill Hader is fantastic! And thank you for the awesome feedback and conversations following last weeks Pros and Cons on Jimmy Graham – it seems to have struck a chord with the audience, I want to say I was surprised at the lack of Jimmy Graham love but it seems as though we have some smart readers and a 5th Round pick for a guy set to likely regress is not the way to go. Once again please remember that the articles I bring to you leading up to your traditional NFL Fantasy Draft Season will be based on the Pros and Cons of players the Fantasy Football Community has split ideas on.

So before we get started – Thank you, and enjoy!

So straight off the bat, I am going to outright say I have grown frustrated with one component of the Fantasy Football Community. And it’s not really a bad thing to be frustrated about, but I feel like it’s a weak version of sitting on the fence. I am new to this community and I gotta tell you it is one of support, open ears and at times brilliance. It is one of charity and goodwill, acceptance, and growth. But…there is an itch I need to scratch…

My opening statement is my growing frustration with a passively aggressive way to fundamentally ‘win-win’. Let me know if you have heard this at some point this offseason: ‘While Aaron Jones is the better Running Back, Jamaal Williams is the better Pass-Protector and Mike McCarthy will like that the most, which is why I am picking up Ty Montgomery because he is the cheapest of the three in a ‘Running Backs By Committee’ to Draft this year – if they are great and he doesn’t get a run then he is an easy cut, if they suck he then becomes the winner out of the three.’ To be honest with you, it feels like a coward’s way out for making a selection. It does my head in. The same can be said for Receivers for the Chargers or Rams. Or Tight Ends in Indianapolis. And Running Backs…well everywhere, really.

To clarify my stance on this, Aaron Jones is the Running Back to own in Green Bay, if I have to reach for him I will and I’d be surprised if he ever falls to me. I want no part of Jamaal Williams, I think he will play his part but that will be in a role behind Jones once his suspension is up and Montgomery can jump in a lake. I don’t care for him.

How hard was that? To actually pick a player you like, take a hard stance with it and go draft him?

From a personal standpoint, I don’t sign up for anything with the intention of losing. My best-ball teams need to be the best from Player 1 to Player 18. My ‘Keeper League’ selections need to have the best value no matter what. My redraft teams do have no handcuffs or backups – none of that, they all need to be ready and startable from Round One.

Which is why I have reached a point with one player in particular where I (or somebody, anybody) need to take a stand because I feel like no one really will. Here’s why:

A) People are avoiding him because they don’t know what to expect from him because the team he is on has made everything seem so unpredictable.

B) People don’t know how to gauge this players production or usage in 2018 due to a small sample size of top quality production in 2017.

C) I have a gut feeling that the same player across all formats is frustrating everyone because we have seen the talent and want him to succeed, yet we are pulling any soft reason to fade him away.

So I feel like these reasons can qualify using Kenyan Drake as this week’s Pros and Cons topic of discussion and break him down. So take a seat, grab a cup of coffee and bite your bottom lip – this is gonna take a while to work through…

‘Ok @TheBLeagueSays, calm down you have nothing to be angry about they’re educated opinions! You need to relax and worry about yourself.’ I mean that’s great and all Captain Obvious, but I’d rather not make excuses to avoid someone like Kenyan Drake because I’d rather Frank Gore but don’t want to take a risk. Not taking risks in a game about Fantasy… I didn’t know that could be such a thing. Speaking about not knowing things:

Do you know… 

• That Kenyan Drake was the perennial back up in College for Alabama to the following Running Backs: Eddie Lacy, T.J. Yeldon, and Derrick Henry. But despite being the backup in College, in 2016 when he was drafted he was the third Running Back off the board to Miami in the 3rd Round ahead of guys like C.J. Prosise, Kenneth Dixon, Devontae Booker who all went in the 4th Round. Funnily, in the 5th Round, Jordan Howard and Alex Collins followed.
• The only other two Running Backs that came off the board before Drake were who? Oh right, Ezekiel Elliott and Derrick Henry – who Drake was the backup for in College as mentioned earlier at Alabama.
• That Kenyan Drake was a High School stud! In his last year at High School, he rushed for over 1600 yards and 18 TDS and was the Gatorade Football Player of the Year. Those were the days…

Wow, @TheBLeagueSays, that’s mighty interesting, but so are Tide Pods on a lonely Tuesday night. Please get to…

The Pros –

NOPE! NOT TODAY!

How about this for a curveball! For what I have on Kenyon Drake, every ‘Pro’ I have is equally balanced out as the same ‘Con’. Either viewpoint can come off as the same argument. Normally, I like my ‘Pros and Cons’ to be as different as possible to give a wider perspective of what is being said about any given player. But with Drake, the reasoning for him will almost counterintuitively be the case against him. So, I am giving you the chance to tell me where Drake actually belongs – as a Pro or as a Con. It’s a bold move Cotton, let’s see if it works out for him…

PROS AND CONS POINT ONE – 2017 OVERVIEW

1. When he got the chance, he shined – Pro; Drake was the starter for Miami from Weeks 12 to 17, in which he rushed for more yards than Kareem Hunt and Todd Gurley during that timespan. I have more to say about ‘small sample size’ production later. But what he did when given the chance was as good as any of the elite Running Backs in 2017.
2. However, prior to that, he was in a timeshare for carries – Pro and Con; Between Weeks 8-12 he was in a timeshare with Damien Williams and at which point was seeing less work until Williams went down with a shoulder injury. Health is a tough thing to predict but he did get through Weeks 8-17 unscathed unlike Williams, however, Drake wasn’t considered the starting Running Back at this point, Damien Williams was.
3. But up until that point, he was nowhere to be seen – Con; Prior to Week 8, Drake was toiling as a backup at best – as he has been since his High School days – behind Jay Ajayi and Damien Williams. Ajayi was traded to Philadelphia midseason which opened the door for more work for both Williams and Drake to play the rest of the season out.

That’s two ‘Pros’ and two ‘Cons’. Drake showed the world why he should be a Starter, but it took a trade and an injury for this to happen. If Ajayi doesn’t get traded then I’d be surprised if Williams gets injured and Drake gets any opportunity at all. But he took an opportunity as well as anyone could have hoped and that’s why we are at these crossroads.

Who wins here: The Pros or the Cons?

PROS AND CONS POINT TWO – HEAD COACH ADAM GASE

Can we actually believe a thing Adam Gase ever says or does? I would have no choice but to second guess him if he wished me a Happy Birthday. He calls Kenyan Drake the Starter, then brings in (I don’t know, probably, he might be, maybe one day, who knows) future Hall of Famer Frank Gore into Miami because he is unsure if Drake can take the workload. And he also Drafts Kalen Ballage, a big-bodied pass-catching Running Back. He has absolutely bogarted Drakes potential ‘break out season’. Oh, and for everyone keeping score, the Dolphins did just bring in Jeremy Langford too. So there’s that… And don’t get me wrong, the Running Back position is one of the most violent positions in all sports, let alone Football and having depth is a good thing and needed. But this is Fantasy Football, and I don’t care about what Gase needs and I’m sure he doesn’t care about my Fantasy team either.

So let’s take each scenario and add an Adam Gase quote in:

1. Clears the way for Drake to be the Starter – Pro; ‘I think we have a guy that’s really looking to bust out and that can do multiple things, he can line up in the slot. You can use him in empty, you can use him from the backfield – you can create a lot of different matchups’.
2. Brings in Frank Gore – Pro and Con; ‘both are going to play, they’ll be on the field at the same time, depends on what personnel grouping I’m in to start the game’.
3. Drafts a Running Back – Con; ‘He’s a big man that runs fast and can catch the ball well, you just kind of need that open competition’.

That’s two ‘Pros’ and two ‘Cons’, again. For me, how much Gore has left in the tank shouldn’t be a question – the guy is a monster. And Rookie Running Backs generally pick up the game quite well and Ballage is multi-talented so how they choose to use him should fit Miami well too. But everything they say about Gore (the workload in particular) shouldn’t affect Drake because up until Week 8 last season he wasn’t taking the hits – which makes any point about Ballage and his lack of workload in College a moot point.

Who wins here: The Pros or the Cons?

PROS AND CONS POINT 3 – WHO ELSE?

What’s funny to me about most of the guys Drake is being drafted in the same area as is that the noise around them is minimal. Watch this:

Kenyan Drake, Round 4 – competition is Veteran Frank Gore and Rookie Kalen Ballage.

Jay Ajayi, Round 3 – competition is Veteran Darren Sproles and Corey Clement.

Alex Collins, Round 3 – competition is Veteran Kenneth Dixon and Javoris Allen.

All three are conceivably in a ‘Committee’, yet the air on Ajayi and Collins lately is much cleaner to breathe. All have a veteran on their tails with something to prove, and all have a ‘pass-catching’ Back in line behind them also. But Drake is worse off? Why? Well, for starters I’d re-read Point 2 again – you don’t seem to get the same issues from John Harbaugh or Doug Pederson, it just seems to be a trend of poor offseason coach-speak coming from Adam Gase (again). But, was his production that bad as a whole compared to the others? Not at all! But for bubbles and giggles let’s compare the trio;

Games Started; Drake, 6 – Ajayi, 8 – Collins, 12

Total Yards; Drake, 883 – Ajayi, 1031 – Collins, 1160

Yards Per Carry; Drake, 4.84  – Ajayi, 4.2 YPC – Collins, 4.59

TDS; Drake, 4 – Ajayi, 2 – Collins, 6

Targets/Receptions; Drake, 48/32 – Ajayi, 34/24 – Collins, 36/23

We don’t hear much about Ajayi, yet it seems like somehow over the course of an offseason that there are no issues with him as the workhorse now that LeGarrette Blount has moved on. Alex Collins was brought in from Seattle because the Ravens were desperate (yet Langford was not an option, go figure), Dixon was injured or suspended, or both and ‘Buck’ Allen wasn’t the answer. The knock on Drake is? That’s my point. He is in the same scenario as the other two but his ‘issue’ seems to be that there are others in the backfield, all similar to what Ajayi and Collins face also.

So, what are within Drake’s range of outcomes:

1. Likely to start the year as the Starter – Pro; We have seen the depth chart having Drake and Gore as joint Starters, I would be surprised if Gore saw more of a Snap Share percentage on a weekly basis. I can’t see a world where Miami is leading that often, and we already know Gase can move Drake around. I’d expect this to happen.
2. How long will that ‘Starter’ reign last? – Con; We really have no idea how long that will last because it seems the leash for results is short. We know they have some more depth in the backfield now and who knows how he will ‘click’ with returning Quarterback Ryan Tannehill.
3. It’s no different a situation that other Running Backs in the same Draft Round; Pro and Con; Feel free to play this out any way you like, but they are all in the same position here. The reality is, however, the amount of quality Running Backs coming off your board after the 4th Round is suspect at best. We can pretend to know the usage of any Rookie, but that could be a hit or miss. How long are you trusting Lamar Miller, Marshawn Lynch and Isaiah Crowell for? Sony Michel and Rex Burkhead are going in back-to-back Rounds and Marlon Mack IS a poor-mans Kenyan Drake in a 7th Round predicament. Care to take a risk on Carolina’s 3rd best option C.J. Anderson, because you can in the 9th? Hell, even Royce Freeman and Ronald Jones II find themselves in ‘committees’ and we are still making a case for their unknown roles on no experience in the NFL. Freeman seems to be more likely to take the lead as Jones has struggled this preseason but still, Denver and Running Backs are always unpredictable and Peyton Barber is making a case to be the lead back in Tampa.

Third time is a lucky charm though! We see an even share of Pros and Cons again. However you look at Running Backs, (put politely) post the 4th Round it gets real ugly real fast.

Who wins here: The Pros or the Cons?

2018 Projection – 

Rushing: Attempts: 240 / Yards Per Carry: 4.4 / Yards: 1056 / TDS: 7

Receiving: Targets: 63.72 / Catch Rate: 66% / Receptions: 42 / Yards Per Reception: 7.0 / Yards: 294 / TDS: 3

Total: Touches: 282 / Yards: 1350 / TDS 10

Summary – 

I started out this article by saying ‘the reasoning for him will almost counterintuitively be the case against him‘. And I stand by it. Kind of the point of a Pros and Cons piece right? But it feels like with Kenyan Drake there are two dividing factors which I feel can separate your anxiety about either selecting him or passing on him:

1. Them Targets and Receptions bay-bay!
2. Sample size bias – Oh No!

Targets and Receptions:

Ok, so I kind of mentioned that Drake had 48 Targets for 32 Receptions which is really good! But what I didn’t mention is that 42 of them Targets came from Week 8 onwards when Ajayi was shipped off and Williams went down hurt in Week 12. But over a 16 game period that would have averaged 5.2 Targets a game and would have been 84 Targets (Drake had a Catch Rate of 66.7%, which would have equated to 56 Receptions). Yes, I know it is extremely dangerous (and maybe even wrong, don’t judge me) to suggest that Kenyan Drake would have had Todd Gurley-like Targets and Receptions but the fact remains that this was a component of how they got him involved. It may have come due to Quarterback incompetence. It may have been a lack of playmakers actually making successful plays. It could have also been a glimpse into how to unlock Kenyan Drake’s key to break-out in 2018. We are hoping that Adam Gase recognizes this and acts positively towards Drake’s skillset. And with over 200 free Targets left behind by Jarvis Landry and Julius Thomas, why can’t Drake be more assertive in the Passing game?

Here is where I stand on the ‘Small Sample Size’ talk to give more clarity:

• Deshaun Watson played 7 games last year, we saw a ‘small sample size’ of what he can do and the collective have no problem drafting him, a Quarterback (a position you can wait on) in the 3rd Round ahead of Tom Brady and Russell Wilson. Bill O’Brien is far from a genius and tailoring an Offense to Watson was 1 game too late because he had us all convinced Tom Savage was a starter. So how much of what Watson did was by design and can O’Brien hinder that progress, or will the opposition study Watson better during the Offseason and figure him out?

 – Corey Davis started 9 games last year and had only 375 yards yet we are grabbing him in the 6th Round ahead of Marquise Goodwin, Randall Cobb, Julien Edelman or Michael Crabtree. We saw Davis play one decent game all year and it was when the Titans got knocked out of the Playoffs in their final game of the season – yes, it took that long for him to show something. But all of a sudden one game overrides the rest? Why do we trust him more? We saw more out of Marquise Goodwin with Jimmy Garoppolo in a smaller sample size than we did Davis with Marcus Mariota over the course of a whole season. But that one game though, am I right?

 – Trey Burton who started 1 game last year is being selected again ahead of someone like Jack Doyle or the emerging O.J. Howard, guys who have played more in the last year than what Burton has done in his 4 year career. Their new Travis Kelce? I wrote about Burton previously (which you can re-read here: https://goingfor2.com/the-pros-and-cons-of-trey-burton-fantasy-football/) but the reality is we are taking him in ‘Jordan Reed‘ territory and in a coin-flip…no I don’t need a coin-flip I’m taking Reed all day in the 8th Round over Burton. Yet we trust Burton to go that high for a ‘small sampled’, unproven commodity?

If we are truly worried about a ‘small sample size of production’ for all fantasy players then I get the concern about Kenyan Drake. The problem is the same enthusiasm isn’t reciprocated about his ‘upside’ (yes, he has upside). And to me (and I hope this doesn’t happen and people forget him), will end up driving him back a Round or two during your draft. I feel like Kenyan Drake is going to be what you draft him as – for me, Kenyan Drake will finish as an RB2.

If things go the way they can – Drake can be an RB2 with RB1 upside. If things don’t go well, you’re hoping for Drake to be a Flex player with RB2 upside. The Miami backfield has a ‘poor mans’ Atlanta feel to it. Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman, and Ito Smith will all get time and I feel the same as Drake, Gore, and Ballage. Drake will play the role of Devonta Freeman.

I want to thank you for getting this far and taking in everything I have presented. As I mentioned before that my goal this week is to help you pick a player and stand firmly behind it, not because it is safe but because you believe in him. You can as always follow and find me at @TheBLeagueSays and offer any view or conversation about this. Let’s all get better together!

Once again, Thank you and Enjoy!

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